ARG Poll: IA Caucus 2008 (D): Hillary 29.3%, Obama 29.3%, Edwards 25.1%

[ariesgem]

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama are tied among Democratic Party supporters in Iowa, according to a review of the last four publicly released voting intention surveys. 29.3 per cent of decided voters in the Hawkeye State would vote for the New York senator in this week’s United States presidential caucus, while 29.3 per cent would back the Illinois senator.

Former North Carolina senator John Edwards is third with 25.1 per cent, followed by New Mexico governor Bill Richardson with 7.9 per cent, Delaware senator Joe Biden with 5.6 per cent, Connecticut senator Chris Dodd with 1.6 per cent, and Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich with one per cent.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28996/iowa_caucus_dem_2008_jan02/

[loveangelc]

1. ARG is all over the place. I can't really trust anything they say

even if my candidate is ahead in this poll...

[Zueda]

2. Talk about momentum! n/t

[jefferson_dem]

3. Hillary -2, Obama +5, Edwards +1 since ARG poll last week.

FWIW...

:scared:

[KingofNewOrleans]

5. Not the same ARG

American Reasearch Group does polling, Angus Reid Group apparently just takes polls and averages them.

[jefferson_dem]

6. Right. My bad.

Thanks for clarifying.

[KingofNewOrleans]

4. It's not really a poll

They just averaged the last four polls.

[kentuck]

7. But if either one of these were out of the race..?

Then the numbers would be more true. For example, if Hillary was not in the race, would most of her supporters go to Edwards or Obama? If Obama were not in the race, would most of his supporters go to Edwards or Hillary? If Edwards were not in the race, would most of his supporters go to Hillary or to Obama? If none of the bottom tier candidates are in the race, who do their supporters go to? We have no way of knowing who the majority of people might support at this time. This process only indicates how effective each candidate is in getting their minority of supporters to the caucus, in my opinion.