There is a very simple explanation why Independents were oversampled in the DMR poll

[Herman Munster]

Registered democrats who are considered to be "likely caucus goers" in Iowa have been harassed by numerous canvassers, campaign calls, robocalls, polling calls, for months and months. It got so bad one guy emailed pollster.com to beg them to stop calling. He was getting 20 calls a day. It's not hard to imagine many of these people saying enough is enough and refusing to answer any of their phone calls, while the pollsters end up having more success with independents who have received less attention and are more likely to talk to the pollsters.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/please_stop_calling_this_custo.php

"Please Stop Calling This Customer"

Washington Post polling director Jon Cohen reported an easily overlooked but important statistic yesterday, especially to anyone thinking about the reliability of the last round of Iowa polls. Using the Iowa tables here at pollster.com, he determined that public polls in Iowa this year have interviewed nearly 80,000 "likely caucus goer" respondents:

As a ratio of voters polled to expected turnout, this must be something of a record. (In 2004 about 120,000 people participated in the Democratic caucuses, and in 2000 about 90,000 in the GOP contest.)

And it's not just the public pollsters calling. Campaigns have been known to set up a phone bank or two to gauge opinion, solicit support and cajole voters to actually show up and spend hours caucusing in the middle of winter.

A month-and-a-half ago, already deep into the "silly season" but well before the final stretch, eight in 10 likely Democratic caucus goers and nearly six in 10 on the GOP side said they'd been called on the telephone by at least one of the campaigns. And Pew reported the pervasive use of robo-calls (though most Iowans who get such automated calls about the campaign said they usually hang up).

[Joe the Revelator]

1. What does this prove? Aside your sour grapes?

[dionysus]

3. it's like he ate a whole tin of sour altoids in one gulp...

[BluegrassDem]

2. We all are witnessing Herman Munster's mental meltdown

Dude, seriously...give it up! You got like 80 threads on this board about the methodology of the poll. And you know what? It doesn't even matter cause the poll is on the front page of DMR and the undecideds in Iowa will be looking at that poll and going with the winner. You can whine about the methodology all day and night, but nothing changes!!!!!!!!!

[Joe the Revelator]

4. Its a mix between funny and worrysome

not to mention awesome.

[BluegrassDem]

5. Herman is imploding right before our very eyes

I mean, at least wait until after Thursday! No one knows how the election will turn out. I think you should save your energy and wait until after the caucuses, cause right now, you're looking like a total baffoon on this board. I actually feel a bit sorry for Herman. I mean, it's just a poll! It's not life or death.

[Herman Munster]

8. time for herman to go to bed

obviously, people here have made up their minds. Happy New Year to all my Obama mental health counselors and to all a good night.

[sniffa]

10. i for one am enjoying it

i hope it continues. :rofl:

[Lurking Dem]

12. If he's smart

he'll pray for an ice storm. Low turnout is the only thing that will help his candidate now.

[ripple]

6. Whatever makes you feel better, Mr. Munster. n/t

[loveangelc]

7. omg! After this info Obama is surely coming in 4th, maybe 5th behind Dodd and Richardson!!!!!

[Sal Minella]

9. I live in Iowa. I hang up on the robocalls and have now asked all the campaign callers to put me

on their "Do Not Call" list, including the callers for person I am caucusing for.

I do not appear in any poll, and I'm sure I'm not alone. My guess is that any polling data at this point is beyond meaningless.

[DemKR]

11. K&R