For some reason, I predict Obama will come up 3rd on the Des Moines Register's poll

[Colobo]

With Edwards in first and Hillary in a close second. That's my gut feeling.

[TwilightGardener]

1. I'm afraid he'll end up third for real. I don't know if he could pull it off in NH then.

It's gonna be a rough week.

[Colobo]

2. Yes sir, I'm feeling that way for some reason.

I'm starting to believe we didn't neutralize Edwards effectively.

[Sulawesi]

4. HRC and O gave JE a free ride going after each other...

...that has happened before in Iowa. I am crossing my fingers. People around here think that because Bush is so bad, that any Dem is a lock, but this is just not true. It is easy to sit here and say their candidates look weak and the Dems look strong, but there is a bunch of people on the other side that feel the same way. IMO, HRCs negatives are like an anchor in the water for her. JE will concede the center to a McCain or Romney, and it could get very dicey. I honestly think Obama is the best candidate out there...

[maximusveritas]

14. Yep, and the media played along

If you notice, Edwards has gotten almost no negative media attention since the haircut and hedge fund stories at the beginning of the year. This has allowed him to creep back up into the lead in Iowa.
And now that it's at the end of the campaign, no one wants to go negative. Obama has dropped hints about Edwards changing his position on the issues, but the media hasn't taken the bait. I think they're going to wait to see if he gets the nomination before taking him down.

[DU9598]

5. Agreed

I have recently locked in with Edwards for Thursday. I love Obama, so I am not flaming or being mean ... but I think he could even slip to 4th. I have a feeling that Joe Biden may do a lot better than anyone is anticipating. I would look for the Register poll to see if that has a chance of being true.

Having said all of this ... it is so close here that Obama could have mastered this new voter turnout strategy and win it all. It is just amazingly close.

[TwilightGardener]

7. Sometimes I feel like we're all going to look back on the primaries

later and realize it was all pre-ordained, and that neither Edwards or Obama (or anyone else) ever really stood a chance against the Clinton machine, and all of this drama and hope about anyone else winning is just the powers-that-be humoring us. Kind of like there was no way John McCain would ever have been allowed to win the GOP nom in 2000, even if he won primaries and had real support--there was literally no way the "chosen one" Chimpy was going to be allowed to lose.

[DemKR]

12. attacks not working? :-p

[karynnj]

23. The sad thing is that they all are working

There are many of here who did not have a candidate or the one we hoped would run isn't running. The attacks have been a factor in creating a "plaque on all your houses" effect. The good thing is that outside DU and similar places, most of the nasty attacks may not have been seen. I have voted every election since 1972, managing to get behind the Democrat - though the nominee was often near the bottom of my list. I seriously will have trouble lobbying others to vote for 2 of the candidates - though I will likely very grudging vote for the Democrat in each case.

[mckeown1128]

15. I agree.

I wish I didn't but that is what the signs are pointing to.

[Tejanocrat]

3. Obama did come in third in the recent Mason-Dixon poll, the LA Times poll, and ARG poll, but none of

those polls measure second choice support where Obama does not as well as Edwards but much better than Hillary.

I think Obama will come in second.

[Sulawesi]

8. I think Hillary is hurting the party...

...and hope you're right.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Hmmm

The fly in the ointment is that Obama and Edwards are the second choice of each other's supporters...

You don't have to be the late Dr. George Gallup to make the correct inference from that that kernel of information...

Plus the trend is not Senator Obama's friend:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html

Notice the purple, green, and burgundy lines...

[Tejanocrat]

13. Obama and Huchabee mis-timed their peaks, but I agree with those who say Romney rended his Iowa

supporters and Huckabee bought his (i.e., Romney's lead was ephemeral but most of Huckabee's supporters are solid).

With respect to Obama in Iowa, those polls show only first choice support, and while Obama's trend is down, his second choice support may keep him closer than the trend suggests.

[Dawgs]

19. All three are within two points...

And, we're not talking about a real up and down vote. The hawkeye caukeye always produces unpredictable results.

I'll wait until Thursday to decide if Obama has lost.

[KingofNewOrleans]

6. I think an Edwards, Obama, Clinton finish

is quite possible.

[papau]

10. that is also my best guess n/t

[Evergreen Emerald]

9. I honestly think he will be fourth. I think Biden will be the surprise

[TeamJordan23]

16. 2nd place votes will help Obama. Plus I think the polls underrepresent some of his support

Especially the young crowd. They just need to show up. nm

[mckeown1128]

18. good point..

Does anyone know if these polls call cell phone numbers. Many younger people like me only have cell phones... so the results could be screwy.

[LordJFT]

20. they don't

a point that was made by ron paul's campaign

[BringBigDogBack]

24. This is what all of the people predicting 3rd and lower are forgetting...

and they shouldn't be.

[flpoljunkie]

17. It could be that Edwards has peaked too early, Katz. Turnout is everything. It's still a dead heat.

No one has any real idea how it will turn out. It will be very interesting to watch the caucuses live on C-Span and elsewhere on Thursday night.

[IndianaJones]

21. I think a 3rd in Iowa would be a good showing for him. nt.

[Bullet1987]

22. I'm not ready to count out Obama just yet

Yea, the attacks have taken hard. But if Obama can get the younger voters out that overwhelmingly support him and they're not intimidated by the process...I think he can pull out what would be a surprise win.

As far as the poll, if the DMR tally's 2nd choice support then I expect Obama to come in second.

[BringBigDogBack]

25. Then get ready for a great showing.

Likewise, I think a 3rd place showing for your candidate would be impressive.

See how that works>?