RCP Iowa polling average: Hillary 29.3%, Edwards 27.3%, Obama 27.0%, Richrdson 5.3%, Biden 4.7%

[Stop Cornyn]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html

[Adelante]

1. Pollster polling average: Clinton 28.7, Obama 28.6, Edwards 24.1, Richardson 5.8, Biden 5.4

http://www.pollster.com/08-IA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

[Stop Cornyn]

5. I don't think that's an average; it's a trend projection line. Also, it's based on much older data.

[Tejanocrat]

15. Pollster's definitely not an average.

[TeamJordan23]

2. Not really accurate. All recent polls show the ARG poll was clearly an outlier.

That ARG poll is swaying the average.

[Stop Cornyn]

4. The ARG poll is not included in the RCP average because it's too old. If it had been included, Obama

would be at 25%.

[Hippo_Tron]

14. Honestly it's within the MOE with or without the ARG poll

There's such a low turnout for the Iowa Caucuses that I'm taking all of these polls with a grain of salt. Which means that it's really a three way race.

The best news for Obama is that he's a popular second choice.

[Stop Cornyn]

16. Since it's the aggregate result of several different polls, it is complicated to speak of the margin

of error.

But clearly any of the top three could win, and any of them could come in third.

[JackORoses]

3. should I post these average a few more times just to make sure everyone sees them?

maybe that will save Hillary.

[Czolgosz]

17. Please post these numbers as many times as possible.

[ronnykmarshall]

6. Toss a three side coin ...

This is one up from grabs.

[Stop Cornyn]

7. Unquestionably.

[Carrieyazel]

8. No way is Richardson at 5% in Iowa. You will be shocked on caucus night.

[Tejanocrat]

9. I think Biden is collasping and Richardson is getting his support. But you need 15% statewide to get

any delegates, and I'm not sure Richardson will reach 15% (in fact, I rather doubt it, even though I could see him doing much better than 5%).

[Stop Cornyn]

10. If Iowa was a primary and not a caucus, I think I might agree that he'd beat his 5% support in the

polls, but I suspect the caucus rules will keep his support no higher than 5%.

[hayu_lol]

11. What in the heck happens if these three leaders...

end up in a tie? Is a tie possible in Iowa?

[Stop Cornyn]

12. My recollection is the delegates are awarded in proportion to the support of those with over 15% of

the support so there could be a three-way tie.

I doubt there will be, but there could be.

[PurityOfEssence]

13. But it's still a two-person race; just ask anybody...

Even NPR parrots the conventional view.