Strategic Vision Poll: Hillary is surging in Iowa

[Herman Munster]

Obama's lead is down from 8% to 1% in the republican poll that has always been an outlier in Obama's favor. What people don't understand about polls is they all have different methodologies and the trends are what is important.

Obama was trending up a few weeks ago. He has peaked.

Hillary is trending up now.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html#polls

12/16 - 12/18

Obama 30%
Hillary 29%

12/08 - 12/10

Obama 33%

Hillary 25%

[Gman]

1. The Pity Strategy is backfiring

[debbierlus]

2. She will beat Obama, but she won't beat Edwards.

[Hobarticus]

4. I second that....

I think John's going to be a big surprise here, next week.

[ShadesOfGrey]

12. I sooo hope you are right!

[ChiciB1]

15. And I'm Coming Up With A Third Here... Given Today's Climate & The

minute by minute scrutiny, HOW in the world can ANYONE predict much anymore! FWIW, we here at DU and OTHER blogs have begun to use POLLS as an excessive "confirmation" of our candidate point of view.

Where once we depended on "Gallup" to report a trend, there are SO MANY various polls I have discounted most of them! What will be will be, and even then the outcome could very possibly be "fixed" because technology and reality converge or morph into a false reality that too many are buying into! This controlled emphasis turns many heads to "go with a predetermined winner" and we as Americans simply can't imagine that the real winner is the BEST for our country. To me this process SUCKS big time! Ergo, thems who done got the MONEY and connections come out on top. Too many buy what they are selling. Just like we buy "things" we think we need that lasts for about 6 months, and the "new" wears off!

Prime example... we voted in 2006 for Democrats to show us the SPINE we so dearly wished for! I'm cynically disappointed and my faith is even more eroded!

[Hobarticus]

21. Agreed....never given polls much thought

Polls are just the opinions of people that have been asked. I know that the sample is supposed to be scientific and all, but to me, it's just a scientific guess.

[Perry Logan]

3. One word: ALEXRODGATE

[skipos]

5. What people don't understand is that 2nd choice matters a lot in IA

and Hillary doesn't appear to do well there.

[Herman Munster]

7. perhaps not

Biden is pressing experience and after today's events, you think a majority of his people are going to go to Obama or Edwards?

[skipos]

8. Personally, Hillary doesn't scream "experience" to me

Biden beats her at that, imo. He is arguably a better speaker, and he doesn't have 45-50% of America committed to voting against him. I can't think of anything that is better about Hillary than Biden, yet according to the polls I am in the minority. She gets more money and has a bigger machine behind her, but so what? I have no idea what other people are going to think or do. At this point, it is pretty safe to say that NO ONE knows what is going to happen in IA.

[Evergreen Emerald]

6. good news.

I have been looking at the last election polls, and Kerry was way down in the polls the whole time. I think that Biden may be a big surprise here.

I hope that it is Clinton, Biden, Edwards. But, I am not certain about anything.

[antiimperialist]

9. Obama's lead is down from 3% to 1%, not from 8% to 1%

In the Strategic Vision poll, which cannot be compared to other polls, Obama held a 3% advantage in the previous poll, according to the link you gave us.

[TeamJordan23]

10. Yeah, OP is wrong. nm

[Herman Munster]

11. no I'm not wrong

He was up 8% in the strategic vision poll I posted. It's clear as black and white in the link I posted.

Perhaps you don't understand there were 3 different strategic vision polls.

Obama was up 8%

Then up 3%

Now up 1%

See a trend?

[maximusveritas]

16. Yes you are

You have the wrong dates.

The newest one was conducted 12/26 - 12/27

[Herman Munster]

19. ok i looked at this again the dates are incorrect, i copied the wrong section on the dates

but the numbers and trend is still there and CORRECT, so it's really irrelevent.

In the span of 2 weeks, there is an obvious Hillary surge in this poll.

Poll Date Sample Clinton Obama Edwards

Strategic Vision (R) 12/26 - 12/27 600 LV 29 30 28

Strategic Vision (R) 12/16 - 12/18 600 LV 27 30 27

Strategic Vision (R) 12/08 - 12/10 600 LV 25 33 24

[antiimperialist]

22. oh, NOW you tell us that you were talking about three polls

Your post suggested a direct drop from 8% to 1, instead of mentioning that the tailspin has decelerated, with Obama losing a statistically insignificant 2% since the last poll.
You cherrypick polls to suit your needs.

[depakid]

13. More meaningless poll shilling

Seems as though that's ALL Hillary supporters have- cheap polls to try to con people with.

Issues and analysis don't seem important. Curious, eh?

[emilyg]

14. And what exactly have you contributed?

[depakid]

20. Guess you could run some searches

if you really wanted to know....

[CyberPieHole]

17. Good on that. K&R for Clinton! n/t

:kick: and recommend

[calteacherguy]

18. The OP does not have the most recent poll from this firm posted, and is manipulating the data

to suit their own nefarious purposes.

:smoke:

[walk softly]

23. POLLS DON'T MEAN A THING

to me. I have a difficult time relating polls to the caucus process. I'm assuming polls are driven by popular numbers, some driven by active Democrats, others by potential caucus goers etc. Reality in the caucus is delegates are selected by PRECINCT in Iowa and with the top three in a virtual deadlock, there are many things contributing to a precinct win. Polls can provide popular numbers, but it's the campaign staff that has identified and gets its supporters to the caucus that could determine the outcome.