94 % of likely NH primary voters say Iowa will not affect their votes.

[MethuenProgressive]

http://www.wmur.com/politics/14900471/detail.html

Analysts said that Iowa's winner typically gets a bounce of a few points in New Hampshire. Four years ago, John Kerry surged 17 percent nearly overnight. Historically, it's about 5 or 6 points, experts said.

But the Democrats are locked in a tight race in New Hampshire. When you factor in a debate in between the contests and the uncertainty of independent voters, it's unclear what will happen.

"The one thing we do know is we really don't know," said Ray Buckley, chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party. "Will a candidate do something that'll have an impact on New Hampshire voters? You never know. It happened four years ago."

A recent CNN/WMUR poll showed that 94 percent of likely New Hampshire primary voters say Iowa will not affect their votes.

[zanne]

1. I would have to agree with that.

Iowa seems more important this year than it usually is, though. You never know about NH. I have no idea, and I live here. Traditionally, though, Iowa's caucus results don't really influence NH voters.

[Warren Stupidity]

2. Historically we did not have Total Bullshit 24/7 Controlled Media

So we can throw out 'historically'. More to the point, the Total Bullshit 24/7 Controlled Media went into overdrive to wreck Howard Dean's candidacy after Kerry's upset in Iowa, effectively pulling the rug out from Dean in New Hampshire. We will see what sort of shennanigans they have in store for us after Iowa. I am sure it will be spectacular.

[sampsonblk]

3. I wouldn't bet on it

94% of NH voters swear they aren't sheep. But when bombarded with media reports that candidate X has "momentum," they will switch in droves to the appointed front-runner.

[calteacherguy]

4. One possibility that nobody has brought up here

is that Hillary wins Iowa and Obama wins NH. It's a real possiblity because Obama is popular with independent voters there in the open primary.

[Warren Stupidity]

5. Another is that Edwards and Obama win Iowa and NH

and Clinton runs second in both. Clinton is annointed the 'comeback gal' by the Total Bullshit 24/7 Media System, which successfully convinces the bewildered population that her failures in both early primaries are actually momentum building successes. DU explodes in massive internecine warfare as Clinton supporters, parroting the TB247MS talking points, insist that Clinton actually won both primaries and start calling for unity around Clinton's candidacy.

[Hippo_Tron]

6. Complete bullshit

The 24/7 media coverage of how great the Iowa winner is will affect their vote whether they realize it or not.