How big of a Bounce will Bush get if Osama gets captured?

[DaisyUCSB]

Is it even predictable? Certainly more than after Saddam, way more.

I would never wish against it happening. It needs to happen. The bastard Osama needs to pay with his life in my opinion. But this is something we might want to think about before so many here saying that we are going to clean Bush's clock

[revree]

1. Minor bounce, and here is why

NOBODY HAS HEALTH CARE. NOBODY HAS JOBS. THE WAR IS KILLING OUR SOLDIERS. WE CAN'T FEED OUR CHILDREN.

Osama will last about a week, and then people will be right back to raging about their rising bills and gas prices.

Besides, Kerry and Co. can always attack with "WHY DID IT TAKE THREE FUCKING YEARS TO FIND THIS GUY???"

[Bonhomme Richard]

2. I don't think he will get much of one and it certainly won't last

I think it will look like what it is. His numbers go down and he pulls a rabit out of his hat. It would also beg the question if all it takes is an effort to close in on him then why wasn't it done sooner? My guess is that they wanted to hold off getting him until closer to the election but bush is under so many attacks now that Rove gave the go ahead and pushed up the date.

[theorist]

3. It won't be nearly as large as after 9/11.

It will probably be comparable to the Saddam capture, because Americans who are not members of the flag waving club (i.e. current Bush supporters) feel that UBL should have been caught by now. If he is captured at an opportune moment for Bush, such as a little scandal involving the VP's office, many Americans will see right through it.

Unfortunately, we'll all be accused by RW radio of being unpatriotic. The only thing we can do at that point is praise the military for a wonderful victory. I think UBL's dead, but then again that's what I thought about Saddam....

on edit: I should read what I write before posting.

[mohc]

4. Saddam's capture

was their trial balloon. They saw what they needed to see, significant movement in the polls, but very soft support. It eroded away in less than a month as people's attention turned to other things. I imagine a similar reaction to OBL's capture. There will be a large initial bounce, well above 10%, and it will probably take a little longer to erode, maybe 2 or 3 months. Unless the Democrats have neutralized this issue, meaning the danger of international terrorism, if OBL is captured in October or maybe even September, the Dems will lose. The Drudge stories of OBL being "surrounded" would have me concerned if they weren't just that, Drudge stories.

[Brotherjohn]

5. 10-15%, which will fade within a month. If it's in October, the voters..

... will see right through it. They're slow, but they ain't stupid.

[saltpoint]

6. It will be like eating 6 Snickers bars at once --

-- there'll be the brief, strong sugar-rush, then a big drop.

Bush's numbers will rise sharply at first, then drop like a brick after a couple weeks.

If he hauls in Osama, the only card he has to play is the sparkling economy and the on-going slog in Baghdad.

Bush loses on all fronts.

Democrats win in November.

[AngryYoungMan]

7. If it had happened BEFORE Hussein, it would have been far more potent.

But now America has seen the result of catching Hussein, which is... nothing.

And it's Bush's own damn fault for equating bin Laden and Hussein.

He's screwed by his own rhetoric. If they catch bin Laden and Bush says, "THIS guy's the REAL terrorist," it puts the lie to all the Hussein rhetoric.

He's screwed both ways. Either Americans see the difference or they don't. If they do, then he's a liar about Hussein. If they don't, then this is no more important than Hussein, which, again, accomplished...nothing.

Liars get caught in their own lies.

[maxanne]

11. it will be big

because the media will be complicit - we'll see the film footage of the planes flying into the two towers more times than Howard Dean's scream was shown in Iowa. We'll see all the footage, guaranteed to get everyone all worked up.

Look for this to happen during the GOP convention in NYC. Timing is everything.

And hey, if it doesn't work - there's always martial law.

[mistertrickster]

8. 10 percentage points, but only for a week

War is foreign policy. Americans don't care about foreign policy unless their kid is going . . .

Now, jobs and the price of gasoline, that could make people give Bush the boot

[ChiefJoseph]

9. Huge

As long as the timing isn't too suspicious. Any time after June or so and the press will rightfully ask if it was a trick.

[Kahuna]

10. Huge!

nt

[BOSSHOG]

12. NONE in my household

I WILL VOTE FOR THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE IN 2004 AND SO SHOULD YOU. Don't vote for nader and don't for the (too many expletives deleted) sonofabitch that the republicans will nominate. Bin Laden is irrelevant to whom you should vote for.

[NWHarkness]

13. Big but brief

It will dissipate with the next car bomb in Baghdad.

[julialnyc]

14. Too little too late!

Ther timing would have to be very unsuspicious, but even if he is caught at a non-questionable date, it still seems too late.
1.We should have caught him before we went for Sadam.
2.He hasn't been able to attack us
3.He's a sick guy who really isn't calling the shots anymore
4.People are unemployed, sick, ect.... and these are the main issues we have!

[dawn]

15. Not much.

I don't think it will make people vote for him who wouldn't otherwise.

The Repubs and Independents I know are not voting for him again because of his economic policies and the lack of job creation.

[Crunchy Frog]

16. I think Bush is likely to get Osama

at the most politically advantageous moment. I think that whoever gets the Dem nomination should be thinking proactively on this, expecting it, and should have a plan in place for dealing with the political repercussions.

I can pretty much guarantee that Bush knows where Osama is, and is just biding is time in waiting to get him.

[ThomWV]

17. Shit - People Have Already Forgotten Sadam. 3 Week Bump at Most

That's the way I see it. The yahoos will hoot and holler for about 3 weeks and then what? Who do they have to catch next?

That's one of the reasons I doubt we'll be looking into Osama's eyes anytime soon. Once he's in hand Bush has no "Enemy" and then Bush is sunk. Oh, and there isn't a chance in hell that Osama will come up alive. If he is alive he can talk about funding sources and you can absolutly bet thats never going to happen.

[mmonk]

18. His capture

most likely gives the repubs the election unless; Dems counter effectively enough that it should have been done a long time ago like shortly after it happened or people feel there is no longer the need for republicans after his capture and/or the economy tanks.

[tobius]

19. If Osama is captured and there is a huge bump it will be

because the Dem candidates have made it such a HUGE issue. What happened after saddam was captured? The nominees to be all had to toe the line of support or pay the price, like Dean did.

"It took too long"- won't resonate; sounds like sour grapes.

I would have thought that they would have learned from Saddam's capture; they shouldn't base failure of the war on terror on 1 man, because when he's in handcuffs at an undisclosed cell somewhere- what then? Those taunts may come back to bite.


"There's a fine line between fishing and just standing on the shore like an idiot."
Steven Wright (1955 - )

[progressiverealist]

20. if close to the election, Bush could win

[mvd]

21. If it's close to the election, the bump would be smaller

But it may have more effect. Could be 20 points now, with a drop as I predict things will get worse in Iraq.