The last time ARG showed Clinton opening up a big lead was in New Hampshire...

[BeyondGeography]

Their December 16-19 poll showed Clinton with a 38-24 lead over Obama.

This was followed by a USA Today/Gallup poll (Dec. 17-19) that showed Clinton and Obama tied at 32-32, and a Boston Globe/UNH poll (Dec. 16-20) that showed Obama leading Clinton by 30 to 28.

I'm obviously hoping ARG is an outlier in Iowa; if their results in New Hampshire are any guide, they are, to put it mildly.

http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=ARG+poll%3A+McCain+in+dead+heat+with+Romney&articleId=46545ea4-4e82-4b0b-95ee-3d1fa1b9714c

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2007-12-20-NHpoll_N.htm

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_boston_globeunh_new_hamps_1.php

[SoxFan]

1. ARG is a joke

Dick Bennett ranks up there with P.T. Barnum as a self-promoter, but he is not a legitimate pollster. Unlike UNH's Andy Smith, who lets his biases skew his methodology, Bennett is just flat out weird. His firm consists of a little two room suite on Elm St. in Manchester. Nobody knows where his boiler room is located, and many of us doubt that it even exists. I think he just cooks up a set of numbers that will set the press atwitter.

Oh, by the way, when he does get hired for political work, it's almost always for Republicans.

Bennett is close to former congressman Charlie Bass. Bass was defeated by Obama's national co-chair, Paul Hodes.

[loveangelc]

2. I don't believe she's that much ahead of Obama/Edwards but

I thinks he has an upward trend from after her Hill-a-copter tour and Bill Clinton stomping for her.

[TwilightZone]

3. They're also showing a big lead in Iowa and are showing Edwards in second place there.

Poll conducted 12/20 - 12/23

Clinton: 34%
Edwards: 20%
Obama: 19%

That certainly seems out of whack with the rest.

Source: http://americanresearchgroup.com/

[Herman Munster]

4. CNN/WMUR also showed Hillary with a big NH lead

So ARG isn't all there by its lonesome. I'll split the difference with you and say Hillary is probably leading by 6 or 7 points like the real clear average says.