Iowa can elevate 2nd choice - Caucus procedure may mean Edwards' rank is just right

[snowbear]

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The News & Observer
Rob Christensen, Staff Writer



COUNCIL BLUFFS, IOWA - Bill Grove is a Bill Richardson man. He thinks the New Mexico governor, with his background as a United Nations ambassador and secretary of the U.S. Department of Energy, is well seasoned for the White House.
But Grove has a backup plan.

If Richardson fails to qualify under Iowa's complicated system of counting Democratic caucus votes, Grove says he will switch his vote to former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

Edwards, the former vice presidential candidate, is sort of the bridesmaid of the Democratic Iowa caucus. While most polls show Edwards running a close third behind Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, the polls also say that Edwards is the most popular second choice among potential caucus participants.

Second choices usually don't fare well in politics. In Iowa, though, being second could be critical to success.

When Iowa Democrats caucus on Jan. 3, candidates who receive less than 15 percent of the vote are considered nonviable. Their backers have the choice of either going home or casting their ballots for their second choice.

The three leading candidates, Obama, Clinton and Edwards, should get roughly three-quarters of the Iowa caucus vote, according to polls. All three campaigns have been heavily courting the supporters of candidates who may not receive 15 percent -- most likely Richardson, Sens. Joe Biden of Delaware and Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio.

Most everywhere Edwards goes in Iowa, he talks about what a stellar group of Democrats are running for president. He avoids criticizing the second tier of candidates. Before many campaign rallies, Edwards meets privately with undecided voters selected by his staff.

Continued: http://www.newsobserver.com/news/story/846468.html

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[snowbear]

1. Also this from Boston Globe: In shifting race, Edwards aims for the gut

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In shifting race, Edwards aims for the gut

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Takes on Obama in bid to project himself as alternative to Clinton
Email|Print| Text size – + By Sasha Issenberg

Globe Staff / December 24, 2007

DES MOINES - John Edwards, who long has found common cause with Barack Obama in portraying Hillary Clinton as a defender of the Washington status quo, is now trying to distinguish himself from Obama by saying the Illinois senator lacks the toughness to upend the Washington order.

more stories like thisOver the weekend, the two sparred after Obama charged Edwards with hypocrisy for benefiting from television ads by an independent group while condemning the role of special interests in politics. The Edwards campaign said there was nothing it could legally do to stop the ads, and that Obama's attacks were evidence the Illinois senator is threatened by Edwards's standing.

That Edwards and Obama have now taken to battling each other reflects changes in the Democratic presidential race, as the two candidates compete to be the reform alternative to Clinton. In a primary fight that many have cast as a choice between Clinton's appeals to the party's head and Obama's to its heart, Edwards is aiming for the gut.

"What Iowa caucusgoers are looking for - they're not looking for academic and they're not looking for analytical," Edwards said in a Friday interview with Iowa Public Television. "They're looking for somebody who speaks from right here, from their gut, and who believes deeply and passionately in what they're talking about."

Continued >
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/12/24/in_shifting_race_edwards_aims_for_the_gut/

[Nutmegger]

2. I love that picture!

R&K!!!

Thank you larissa!

[snowbear]

4. I know Nutmegger... I wish I could be there!

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[College Liberal]

3. Gosh, who to choose?

It's great to be a Democrat these days. I really don't know who to choose out of a talented field.

Edwards: The hometown Hero :)

Obama: Could it happen in my lifetime? :)

Hillary: She inspires me :)

as of 3:40 am VA time i am leaning towards Edwards.... Politics is always local :)

[1corona4u]

6. Or Biden,

the right person for the job.

[Selatius]

5. If I were an Iowa resident and Kucinich fails to become viable, my alternate would be Edwards.

I suspect a bunch of Kucinich supporters would likely go to Edwards as well.

[laureloak]

7. And if the tables were turned I would go for Kooch. n/t

[Stop Cornyn]

18. Edwards, Kucinich -- whatever, so long as we nominate a progressive.

[rucky]

8. So where do you think the second-tier votes will go?

If DU is any indication, Kucitizens seem to gravitate to Edwards. Richardsonians? no idea. Doddites? Probably Edwards. Bidenites seem to like Obama. For me, it would be a toss-up between Obama & Edwards.

One thing I'm pretty sure about - it won't be Clinton that picks up second-tier votes. People have already made up their minds about her one way or another.

[Tashca]

11. I would agree to an extent

I would agree that there probably won't be much movement toward Clinton.
Speaking as a Bidenite....I most assuredly will not support Obama.
There is another alternative no one seems to be talking about. That is undecided. Undecided is an option and could very well come into play with these second tier candidates. Their is the potential if there are enough undecideds that it could dilute the process some.....This could help extend the process to a small degree into other states. This could be a ploy that the second tier candidates could use to try and gain momentum if they think they have a better chance down the road. Let's just say I have heard this tossed around and am surprised the MSM hasn't picked it up. After typing that I realize how ridiculous that was to say about MSM...

[rucky]

12. Good point.

I totally forgot about undecideds

[Tashca]

14. If they are viable

If undecideds can garner their viabilty...(ususally 15%)..they can have an impact. I don't remember this happening in the past of an significance. But the mechanism is there for this to happen. My experience is that in these caucuses...the undecideds have some power. Everyone wants that last delegate....

[skids]

9. Which is why its a damn good thing Iowa goes first...

...the DNC should pass a bylaw saying the first primary must have an instant runoff system. Then all the jockeying would either end, or we'd get IRV in more primaries.

[Adelante]

10. FWIW, Chris Bowers is looking at this, too

The Edwards Second-Choice Advantage They Now we start entering the realm of more plausible theories. As everyone reading this blog knows, second-choices matter in the Iowa caucuses because of the 15% (and up!) viability threshold for delegates in Iowa precincts. This should translate into a boost for Edwards, since every single poll out of Iowa shows Edwards leading among second-place choices. The one question mark is just how far ahead Edwards is among second place choices. His advantage in this category varies significantly across polls, but usually falls in the high-single digits. It is difficult to say how much of an advantage this will translate into on caucus night. Certainly, it will be worth at least one point, but it is also unlikely to be worth more than two points. Conclusion: This seems likely to be hiding a 1-2% Edwards overall boost, and a 1% boost relative to both Clinton and Obama

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=2913

[Stop Cornyn]

15. Thanks for the link.

[Lurking Dem]

13. I think Edwards

is going to come out of Iowa looking pretty good.

[surfermaw]

16. Me to

[balantz]

17. Me three