Dems eye '2nd choice' supporters in Iowa

[babylonsister]

Dems eye '2nd choice' supporters in Iowa

By NEDRA PICKLER, Associated Press Writer 49 minutes ago


DES MOINES, Iowa - It's not just in horseshoes that close counts. The same goes for Iowa's presidential caucuses.

The state's complicated rules for winning the Democratic presidential contest mean that being a voter's second choice can sometimes translate into solid support on caucus night. And the crowded race for the 2008 nomination means these second- choice supporters are more important and receiving more attention than ever.

That's because candidates must reach at least 15 percent support in any given precinct to have their supporters counted there. If they don't, those caucus goers are up for grabs by other campaigns in a free-for-all negotiating session where voters often switch sides.

"Have we been targeting those voters and keeping track of them from Day One? Absolutely," said David Barnhart, the Iowa caucus director for Hillary Rodham Clinton.

The most valuable Democratic second-choice voters are those who support second-tier candidates Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd and Dennis Kucinich. Though those candidates have pockets of support around the state, they all are polling in single digits and aren't expected to reach the minimum 15 percent threshold in many of the state's 1,781 precincts.

Recent polls have the four combined pulling in roughly 15 percent of the voters. That's a significant number that will be available on Jan. 3, especially when Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards are in such a tight three-way race for victory in the state.

more...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071220/ap_on_el_pr/democrats_second_choice;_ylt=Av0sfPMpgF8z_e0Q_Kw0K8is0NUE

[gateley]

1. Interesting -- I'm finding this whole 'caucus thing' intriguing. Thanks for posting this. nt

[sniffa]

2. who are the deal makers?

[babylonsister]

3. I don't understand your question? nt

[sniffa]

5. sorry

who's going to make the deals to push them up with 2nd choices?

will Biden and Dodd pledge to each other, and will that help one of them, etc.?

[babylonsister]

6. I don't know that answer, probably only they know, but they'd

better hurry up; time's tickin'. I haven't heard any candidate suggest they'd endorse another yet.

[Debi]

8. If deals are made they probably won't come out until the day of the caucus

like the Edwards/Kucinich deal in 2004. It was announced that day.

[Happyhippychick]

4. I read an article months ago about John Edwards which said that he

is using this strategy. He's tellng voters "if I'm not your first pick, then please consider me as your second choice."

It might just work for him.

[Debi]

9. Every candidate has used this line in Iowa

and their phone bankers ask it too. "If candidate x isn't your first choice will you make them your second? Can we count on you for that?"

[Debi]

7. She's wrong

After viability (or non-viability) is determined caucus-goers have several choices:

If the candidate of choice is not viable they can:

go to a viable candidate

go to another non-viable candidate and make them viable

ask supporters of another non-viable candidate to come over and make their candidate viable

ask supporters of a viable candidate (that may have enough support to equal one delegate but not enough to equal another, etc) to join their group making their candiate viable AND keeping a different candidate from becoming viable or receiving an additional delegate (watch this happen w/Clinton-Edwards-Obama supporters and the second tier candidates)

join with other non-viable candidate supporters and make an 'uncommitted' group (which itself then can become viable)again keeping any other candidate from receiving an additional delegate

go home or at least drop out of the delegate race

If the candidate is viable but doesn't have enough supporters to reach the next threshold (has enough to equal one delegate but not two or two but not three):

ask supporters of non-viable candidates to join their candidate

join supporters of non-viable candidates to make their candidate viable AND keep a different candidate from becoming viable OR receiving an additional delegate

join supporters of non-viable candidates to create an 'uncommitted' group (which itself can become viable) again keeping a competing candidate from receiving an additional delegate

stay where they are

The Chicago Trib got it right a couple of days ago - Nedra Pickler has done this enough times she should know it by now.

[babylonsister]

10. Debi, I'm glad you're here to straighten us out.

I know you've 'been there, done that', unlike myself. Thanks! :hi:

[Debi]

11. Not you - Nedra Pickler and many in the MSM

That's why the polls about second choice in realignment are so messed up. This isn't instant run-off voting. Everyone is still very much alive in the beginning of realignment.

If it were true that a candidate who was not viable after the first round had to drop out than I'd bet John Edwards would not have been in second place at the end in Iowa. In my precinct alone he received the Gephardt/Clark/Kucinich supporters - and he was not viable after the first round!

So when the question is asked "If your candidate is not viable who will you go to?" The answer should be "I'll support my candidate and ask others to join in". That'll teach the pundits!

(One point though - eventually everyone does have to make a choice. If after wrangling and requesting and pleading and proding nobody will join with a non-viable candidate THEN it may be time to either jump over to another candidate or create an uncommitted group or drop out. However, there's only about 30 minutes to do all this so people do have to make up their minds rather quickly :7)