Washington Post-ABC News Iowa poll: Obama 33%, Clinton 29%, Edwards 20%

[ClarkUSA]

A Washington Post-ABC News poll said 33 percent of Iowans planning to vote on Jan. 3 support Obama, compared to 29 percent for
Clinton and 20 percent for Edwards. Here are some selected highlights from the poll data for the Top Three:

"... Clinton has an equal challenge, motivating turnout; she’s weaker, and Obama is stronger, among those who say they’re absolutely certain to show
up on caucus day. John Edwards, while trailing overall, also would benefit from low turnout by newcomers... Another factor is the Iowa Democratic
Party’s “viability” rule, in which, generally, candidates who garner less than 15 percent support in the first round of caucusing are dropped, and the
contest continues without them. In this poll, when supporters of single-digit candidates are reallocated to their second choice among the top three,
Obama goes to a lead, with 37 percent support; Clinton has 31 percent, Edwards 26 percent... Obama’s made notable gains elsewhere. For the first
time he runs about evenly with Clinton in Iowa on electability: Thirty-five percent pick her as the candidate with the best chance to win in November,
but 33 percent pick Obama – an 8-point gain for him from last month. He’s also battled to an even race with Clinton as the candidate who’s campaigned
hardest in Iowa, a hard-won attribute in a state accustomed to retail politics... among “definite” voters Clinton has 34 percent support, up 7 points
from last month; Obama has 31 percent, Edwards 22. Among the rest – changeable voters – Obama has 39 percent support, likewise up 7 points from
last month; Clinton 24 percent, Edwards 20... Obama pushes back with intention to vote: He leads Clinton by 35-26 percent among people who say
they’re “absolutely certain” to attend their caucus; it’s about the opposite, 28-35 percent, among those who say they’ll probably go. (Edwards gets
20 percent support in both groups.) That result underscores how key turnout will be.. OTHER ISSUES/ATTRIBUTES – Clinton’s single biggest advantage
against Obama is on the attribute of having the best experience to be president – a 5-1 advantage, 45 percent to 9 percent, with a 7-point gain for
Clinton from last month.... having the “best” experience may not be necessary; in another measure, 61 percent say Obama does have the kind of
experience it takes to serve effectively. And those who say so support him over Clinton by a 3-1 margin.

Obama’s single best attribute, and an important one, is in honesty and trustworthiness; he leads Clinton by 34-18 percent as best suited on this score,
with Edwards at 21 percent. This is little changed from 31-15-20 percent last month; it continues as a significant weakness for Clinton and comparative
strength for Obama... she and Obama run about evenly in trust to deal with the situation in Iraq.

Link to poll data: http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1056a1IowaDemocraticCaucus.pdf

[TeamJordan23]

1. hehe. A day old now, but its okay. GoObama. nm

[TheWatcher]

2. And The Hillary Screechers will arrive in 3........2........1...........

[Lucinda]

3. No complaints from me about the data. I read the whole thing. Hillary is doing just fine.

:) Came back to kick and rec and suggest people read the whole pdf. Its very interesting!

[Connonym]

4. Meh, we should stop making predictions and just wait it out. Another poll has Edwards in the lead

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1218_89.aspx

<snip>The race among the three top Democrats is extremely close, with the potential for any of them to finish first – or third. Edwards leads with 30 percent in a poll of Democratic voters who said they intend to participate in the Jan. 3 presidential caucuses, followed by Clinton with 26 percent and Obama with 24 percent. When the sample was narrowed to the most likely caucus-goers, based on several questions, Obama leads Edwards by less than a percentage point with 27 percent, with Clinton in third place at 24 percent.

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Besides even though (or especially because) I was born in Iowa I know better than to think that Iowa represents the whole fucking country.

[HughMoran]

5. Don't spoil the fun for the poll racers

:crazy:

[Clark2008]

6. What the heck is the Southern Political Report?

I'm a Southerner and this outfit doesn't ring one bell with me?

[Connonym]

7. I found the reference on HuffPo

[ClarkUSA]

8. Obama leads RCP Iowa Poll Averages

Link: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html

[rinsd]

9. He was leading that by more before the last 3 polls showing Clinton leading came in (nt)

[ClarkUSA]

10. And your point is? Polls taken during the last few days have split equally between Obama & Hillary

It's obvious that Hillaryworld's madrassa emails and Kerrey's "Muslim" compliment have done their work.

Hillary is now the frontrunner nationally and in Iowa! I expect her to win Iowa handily on Jan. 3. Right? :-)