Giuliani plummets in latest NBC/WSJ poll; Obama fares better against GOPers

[calteacherguy]

I think there’s, at this point, no national (Republican) front-runner,” says GOP pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart. “We have literally four or five candidates, all of whom has a chance to be the nominee.”

<snip>

Despite her national lead, the NBC/Journal survey underscores two potential concerns that some Democrats have about the former first lady’s candidacy: her relatively high negative numbers and her electability.

Forty-four percent of all respondents have a negative impression of Clinton, versus 42 percent who hold a positive view of her. By comparison, Obama has a 46-26 percent positive/negative rating, while Edwards’ is 38-31 percent.

<snip>

In addition, Clinton leads two of the top GOP presidential candidates in hypothetical match-ups — but within the margin of error and by smaller margins than Obama does. Clinton bests Giuliani by 3 points (46-43 percent) and Huckabee by 2 points (46-44 percent).

Yet Obama leads those same two men by 9 points (49-40 percent) and 12 points (48-36 percent), respectively. The reason why Obama fares better in these match-ups, McIntuff says, is because of independents: They side with Obama but against Clinton.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22327166/

If McCain ends up being the nominee, watch out. He will take a lot of the independent vote. He's already surging in NH, which has an open primary and where historically a lot of independents vote. Unfortunately, this could hurt Obama because he is popular with the independent vote as well. The only way to counteract that and win is to nominate Obama. Democrats ought to think hard about what we are doing, and how we can compete effectively against a McCain nomination.

If it's not McCain, any candidate has a chance, but Obama would still have the best chance. Think about it. Think hard.

[TwilightGardener]

1. Mittens and Rudy are now tied for first--interesting. Mittens usually

has only led in individual state polls, and lagged at third or fourth nationally. If he can win Iowa, I'm betting he will be the nominee.

[ClarkUSA]

2. A Boston Globe political pundit on Hardball said last night that independents would not vote....

in the Dem primary if Hillary wins Iowa... they'll opt for the Republicans instead. He added that if Obama won Iowa, independents told him
that they'd vote in the Democratic primary (and ostensibly, in the general election) for Obama.