Illinois Senate: Thoughts...

[KharmaTrain]

Greetings...time is coming to take one good look at all the candidates for the Senate race and I was curious about the opinions of fellow DU'ers about the candidates. I'd like as "objective" an evaluation as possible...especially in regards to ensuring we win this seat.

Personally, I like both Obama and Nancy Skinner...but looking at the polls over the weekend, I am looking at Blair Hull and am very open to all thoughts.

On the GOOP side, I sense Jack Ryan will be more of a problem than we think. Already he's risen through the GOOP through stealth and slick ads. While the Repugnicans are on their heels, this guy's the type that, like Fitzgerald, can throw a lot of money into a campaign...and that he can slip through the cracks on "personality" where voters vote for the name, not the party.

Again, these are initial thoughts as my family and I make the vote we know will say the most in this primary. Thanks and cheers to all.

[chiburb]

1. Obama is my choice, though Hull...

Isn't a bad second pending further on his ex-wife's order of protection.
Illinois does NOT elect R. senators as a rule, so I'm not too worried about Ryan. Besides, the Democratic candidate is going to ride Presidential coattails into office!

Thinking positively!

[Walt Starr]

3. Hull has that whole spousal abuse thing, though

Hull is unelectable. I saw the spousal abuse thing in the paper this morning.

I'm going with Obama because Hull is a trainwreck waiting to happen.

[chiburb]

5. Don't be so quick to cry "spousal abuse"...

It appears that Hull may have kicked her in the shins once...

"The relevant portion of the latest in what surely will be a series of statements from the Hull campaign said:
In February 1998, as our second marriage was ending, we had an argument and Brenda called the police. The police report from that night says that I hit her shin. I would never intentionally harm Brenda, and I regret the incident. The State's Attorney dismissed the case and the order of protection she obtained.

The next day, Brenda's divorce lawyers filed a new case before a different judge, without telling me or my lawyers, and obtained an ex parte order of protection against me. Two days later, we agreed to mediate, and we reached a final settlement. The second order of protection expired under its own terms, and I never had the opportunity to address it."

Like I said, "pending further"....

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/columnists/ericzorn/chi-zornlog,1,704173.story?coll=chi-news-hed

[DaisyUCSB]

13. The allegation is enough. Isn't he also ultra-rich? No thanks , run Obama

This one is so obvious. You shouldn't be afraid because he's black. He'll get more votes from soccer moms because of it, than from anyone who's vote he'd lose because of it. He isn't a Jesse Jackson/Al Sharpton professional minority type.

[chiburb]

21. Who the fuck are you?

1. "The allegation is enough. Isn't he also ultra-rich?

The allegation is NOT enough to make me ignore this:

Hull is an outspoken supporter of a woman's right to choose, currently serves on the national board of NARAL Pro-Choice America, and is actively involved with Planned Parenthood, Emily's List, and Voters for Choice. Hull also serves on the Board of the Women's Sports Foundation, and endowed the first chair in Women's Studies at his alma mater, the University of California at Santa Barbara.

2. Re Obama: "You shouldn't be afraid because he's black. "

I said Obama is my FIRST choice, but I could live with Hull pending further info on the order of protection. Where did I exhibit fear of Obama because he's black?

Further, what does Hull's net worth have to do with anything? Even fucking Nader is a millionaire

[DaisyUCSB]

36. You didn't but I was talking about you in the broad sense

I should have been more specific. Another DUer did have some reservations because they thought that that would hurt him in certain parts of the state. And being rich or very rich DOES hurt politicians. Particularly when it can be made to look like they're buying their seat or office. It's almost always better from an electoral standpoint to be seen as more relatable to most of the people.

And I should have elaborated, but if the allegation based on a factual incident(the police report) is out their that the democrat is an ultra-rich guy with domestic problems it's just going to stick in peoples minds, enough possibly so that it could tip the scales.

[Walt Starr]

14. Too close to the primaries to give this one a benefit of the doubt

He kicked her in the shins. That's enough to lose my vote unless he wins the nomination.

I'm a straigh The Ham sandwich (D) voter.

[NNN0LHI]

6. What spousal abuse thing? Tell me where you seen it. I'll find it n/t

[Walt Starr]

22. It was in all of the chicagoland newspapers this morning

My wife read me the story on the train this morning.

[chiburb]

25. No it wasn't...

I read the Sun-Times and Trib, and there was NO story about this. Zorn (Trib) writes about it in his blog, and I linked to that above.

What paper did your wife read to you this morning?

[Walt Starr]

28. Aurora Beacon

Usually if an Illinois politics story is in there, it's everywhere.

[Cocoa]

35. I saw a passing reference in the Trib this morning

it was the first I'd heard about it, and it really changed the way I look at him, though I still want to know more details.

[Cuban_Liberal]

2. Obama or Hynes

I haven't decided yet which one to vote for, although I also like some things about Hull, Skinner and Chico. Oh, the JOY of having so many fine candidates to choose among! :)

[chiburb]

4. No Hynes for me...

Pro Iraq war, ties to the Chicago machine...

Skinner's a carpetbagger (though intelligent), Chico seems ok.

[KharmaTrain]

7. I agree on the machine

While I love Richie Daley...I do so at the comfort of the burbs...I prefer not to have his proxy in Washington.

Chico interests me due to his experience in the Chicago school system. While this has been a past liability, I'm looking at a candidate who will compliment Durbin; whose strength are international and business affairs. Having a voice on social and education issue would be a real plus.

I've always like Obama and wish he'd get more media coverage. I heard him on a radio debate sponsored by the College of DuPage and he's the most eloquent. Being from "the city"...I have a bit of concern that a black just won't get the support in the NW wards (that fighting 47th) or even the Hispanic ones. While at this point I don't see that as a major problem, just one to considering on a broader plane.

Lastly, I saw bits and pieces of the Hull story and initially dismissed him for his lack of experience...I consider him more of a carpetbagger than Nancy (and I can understand you're labelling her that), who had been on the radio and attuned to issues in Chicago for at least the last 6 years. Hull strikes me like Oberweis...attempting to manufacture a candidacy. That's fine with Repugnicans...but not with me.

Thanks to all...honestly, I'm very wide open and am bookmarking this for late night surfing and study.

[Cuban_Liberal]

10. The 'machine' thing...

I know his dad is part of the Daley machine, but none of us gets to pick our relatives. An objective look at his actual record reveals someone remarkably free of the machine, i.e., a mainstream Democrat who has occasional periods of decidely independent/contrary behavior.

I still like him. :)

[chiburb]

23. Really?

Snip:

SPRINGFIELD, Ill. - Illinois Comptroller Dan Hynes, legally barred from using
his state campaign money for his U.S. Senate bid, instead funneled thousands of
those dollars into Chicago's Democratic machine last year - then received
donations in similar amounts from the same sources for his Senate campaign,
records show.

A Hynes official last week said the donations and re-donations are a routine
part of politics, and weren't an attempt to slip restricted state campaign
money into Hynes' Senate campaign.

But others say Hynes and his supporters have effectively circumvented
federal election rules that bar use of state campaign funds. Moreover, they
say, it isn't an unusual strategy in Illinois, where lax campaign fund-raising
laws lead to state-level war chests that are huge but hard to use in federal
races.

"It sounds like money laundering," said David Starrett of the reform group
Independent Voters of Illinois. "It's the Illinois way. Political operatives
here can be incredibly creative. Their ingenuity is boundless."

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/News/St.%20Louis%20City%20%2F%20County/11283D283077FA4C86256E250023C735?OpenDocument&Headline=In%20Illinois%20politics,%20campaign%20money%20goes%20round%20and%20round,%20r&highlight=2%2CHynes

[Cuban_Liberal]

26. I know that.

I never said he wouldn't accept help from the machine. Anyone with good sense would WANT machine help in the Democratic primary.

[DaisyUCSB]

11. Hynes would be a mistake because he comes from the establishment

in a democrat dominant state. When those people run against outsider-type republicans, they lose. In California, New York, Massachusetts, etc, I've seen elections where a guy like Ryan beat a guy like Hynes, and I've only been paying attention to politics for a few years.

Hynes comes from a known political family, they'll be able to paint him as that sort of "if you've seen one, you've seen em all" types

[Cuban_Liberal]

15. He's also consistently popular with IL voters.

He is well-liked here, and has done a great job in every office hes ever held. Furthermore, the Republican Party in IL is currently in a fratricidal shambles, so I wouldn't give them more credit than that warrants.

Prediction: 'D' pickup, even if we run a ham sandwich.

[kanrok]

8. I like Obama

He is a dynamic speaker and has a positive message. The best qualified of the candidates IMHO. The last Hull from Illinois I liked was Bobby. He was a wife abuser also. Seriously though, it troubles me that a candidate for Senate has two orders of protection. Say what you will, but even an ex parte order has to be approved by a judge. They take these things seriously (as well they should). If this allegation is true, even if he "only kicked her in the shins" I'd have to defer voting for Hull.

[DaisyUCSB]

9. You're definetly right about Jack Ryan. He's a strong candidate

Did you know he's Jeri Ryans ex-husband, and like her character on Boston Public he left a 6 or 7 figure job to go teach in some inner-city or mostly minority high school? He'll be able to milk that alot.

The dems should definetly go with Obama. Running an establishment or milqutoast candidate would be a mistake. Obama isn't some typical career/union/establishment city politcian. He's a professor, and I hear he's brilliant

[chiburb]

12. I'm not worried about Ryan...

Jack Ryan holds back in biography
November 27, 2003
By Lynn Sweet, Chicago Sun-Times

Jack Ryan is making selective use of his business biography in his Republican primary bid for the open U.S. Senate seat.

A lot of Ryan's appeal is his biography, as well as his multimillions of dollars, his puppy-dog earnest personality and his good looks. Ryan's campaign labels his bio "The Jack Ryan Story."

After making millions at the investment banking firm of Goldman Sachs, Ryan walked away to teach at Hales Franciscan High School, a parochial school on Chicago's South Side.

It is a few things that he does not mention on his campaign direct-mail pieces — which a lot of people see — but does list in his required Senate financial disclosure report — which is not mailed to potential GOP primary voters — that's worth noting.

Ryan taught at Hales Franciscan from September 2000 to January 2003 and donated most of his $21,717 salary back to the school. During this period, however, Ryan was not out of the business world.

Starting in September 2002, Ryan joined the board of First Health Group Corp., headquartered in Downers Grove. The publicly traded company handles group health insurance plans for large private and public employers, an industry that is heavily influenced by federal laws and regulations.

Ryan received a $35,000 director's fee for attending meetings. He also was given options to buy 48,000 shares of the company at a strike price of $25.99 for 32,000 shares and $25.22 for 16,000 shares. A strike price on an option, when exercised, sets the value for a share no matter what the stock is trading at on a particular day.

It's not clear when Ryan can exercise his options, but if it is soon, he may let his options sit, since the stock was hovering near $20.43 on Wednesday afternoon. Ryan's disclosure shows he already holds First Health Group stock worth between $250,000 and $500,000

[DaisyUCSB]

16. Uhh, and what part of that is damaging at all? Really I'm reading this

and all it basically says is that he had a part time job. Do you really think that that would be effective in a general election? Or a primary for that matter. I'm not saying he's a slam dunk, but he is there strongest candidate by far, and he could beat someone like Hynes or Hull or Chico or Skinner.

[KharmaTrain]

19. I Didn't Swallow The Hales Story...

Truth be known, the first time I saw that commercial I thought he was another Democrat...then looked closer. I surely hope others didn't get that impression.

My wife calls this guy a "Game Show Host"...and definitely isn't the struggling "man of the people" those ads play him to be. The stealthy side of this guy bothers me.

Here's hoping the real story comes out about this guy. We should be in good shape overall, but remember when the Illinois Democrats thought Adlai Stevenson was a shoe-in for the nomination? No elephants in the tent this time...either next month or in November.

Obama looks very good...and again, I'm curious about Chico. Yes, Hynes shouldn't be judged on bloodlines, but he is highly connected within the Cook County Democratic organization...and that speaks for itself.

I'm just sad we won't have Steve Neal's take on this.

[chiburb]

27. I'm just sad we won't have Steve Neal's take on this.

Couldn't agree more. Neal used to infuriate me with some of his anti-Durbin columns, but what a treasure we've lost.
RIP...

[madrchsod]

30. ryan is spending alot of money out

here,there`s his big assed signs everywhere. where i live he`s the man..

[chiburb]

32. A Republican will NOT be elected in Illinois !

Jeez... Gore got 55% of the vote against Bush in 2000. Since then, the R's have come apart at the seams (Illinois). I don't care if they revive Dirksen, they ain't gonna win!

[DaisyUCSB]

37. A statement like that is really underestimating the opposition

are we favored? Yeah, but the DSCC is going to strapped as hell in this election, as the Illinois race is pretty much the only open GOP seat or any GOP seat that we're favored to win. Compared to about 6 open dem seats that the GOP is favored or it's a tossup.

55 percent? That isn't a blowout. We're trying to hold a few seats that Bush won with almost 60 percent

[Cuban_Liberal]

39. It's really NOT underestimating them, frankly.

You really have to live here in IL, or closely follow the Illinois political scene to truly appreciate the utter devastation that the 2002 blowout and subsequent Ryan scandals have wrought on the Illinois Republican party. The party is engaged in a BITTER fratricdal war between the right- and moderate wings (and it's NASTY), and I have never seen a party in so much disarray.

A ham sandwich could win in November--- trust me.

[slappypan]

17. Ryan is not very articulate

Yes he is extremely handsome, but he does not seem to have any message to go along with his good looks. And getting dumped by Jeri Ryan after he funded her Hollywood career does not make him more appealing in my opinion.

[Cocoa]

38. he comes off as an airhead

I heard an interview with him on WBEZ, and it was embarrassing, he sounded like a conservative teenager.

[lovedems]

18. I would like Obama if he would get off his ass and try to get my

vote in cental Illinois. Aside from hearing his name on DU he is an unknown to democratic voters in the stinking capital of the state.
If he wants to win, he should campaign in the state, not just Chicago. Seriously, I have not talked to one voter in central Illinois who have heard of the guy.

The only ones running ads or attempting to campaign in my part of the state are Hull and Hynes. Of those two I like Hull better. He may be ultra rich but he didn't start out that way.

[Cuban_Liberal]

20. Hynes has campaigned down here twice, so far.

I'm east of Decatur, and Hynes has been working downstate hard, just like Gov. B. did in the primary.

[lovedems]

24. That is the way it should be

I was raised in Decatur which is a HEAVY blue collar town and it is being killed by the loss of manufacturing jobs. I am getting sick of our politics slowly shifting to Chicago. I have the tendency to vote for the ones who consider the entire state, not just the city of Chicago.

[Cuban_Liberal]

31. And don't forget Southern Illinois

The 'below I-70' part of the state has a decent concentration of conservative (but yellow-dog) Democrats, and they gave Governor B. almost 75% of their votes in the 2002 primary, which was his margin of victory. I think Hynes is playing this one VERY intelligently.

[lovedems]

33. Southern Illinois should be considered highly important.

Look at Carbondale. From my experiences, that is a pretty liberal college town. Illinois is very diverse state from North to South and it just irritates the heck out me when politicians solely focus on Chicago. I live in the state friggin' captial and therfore, by defualt, feel like I should have heard of Obama from someplace other than a message board.

[madrchsod]

29. i`m with you

i live in ronnieland-try finding a democrat around here. i did see a hull sign today but no one else. if i lived in lasalle county at least i`d have a chance to see a democrat so i guess i`ll have to vote for who ever the machine puts out. remember it`s-----JACK ryan---there`s signs everywhere for him around here.....

[lovedems]

34. I guess that shows we have a long way to go on the grassroots

movement.

My mom and step-dad are pretty big players in the democratic party for Decatur. They are huge grassroots activists and have assisted with all of the local democrats who have been elected in the last 10 years. My mom worked for the Housing Authority and my step works for Caterpillar, so between the two of them, they make a pretty good voice for the local democrats.

They haven't even heard of Obama.

[chiburb]

40. BLAIR IN THE GLARE

Snip:

Front-running U.S. Senate candidate Blair Hull was the focus of several interesting exchanges during last night's Democratic candidates' debate in Springfield...

PANELIST MIKE FLANNERY: A week ago, I asked your Republican opponents -- when is the personal appropriately political? Mr. Hull you have talked about the circumstances under which an ex-wife got an order of protection in the middle of a divorce proceeding. Why not release the underlying documents?

BLAIR HULL: Well, first of all, this is not a unilateral decision. It involves two parties, it involves our families. It is not an issue that I can solely decide on. We issued a statement a couple of days ago that thoroughly describes what happened. Unfortunately it was a contentious divorce, like most divorces. But the important thing is that Brenda supports my candidacy, we remain good friends and she thinks I'll be a very good senator.

FLANNERY: Where do the rest of you draw the line? When is the personal an issue that reflects on a candidate's character that would illuminate the behavior of public issues?

Much more here:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/columnists/ericzorn/chi-zornlog.story

[Rich Hunt]

41. Obama

I like Obama so far the best, and have been supporting him.

I'm not going to vote for someone who is trying to buy a Senate seat. As a person from a humble background, it offends me.