Edwards takes lead in InsiderAdvantage Iowa poll

[Ytzak]

Edwards takes lead in InsiderAdvantage Iowa poll
John Edwards has leapfrogged over his rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and leads the Democratic field in Iowa, according to the latest InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion poll. In the Republican caucus race, Mike Huckabee continues to hold a narrow lead over Mitt Romney.

The race among the three top Democrats is extremely close, with the potential for any of them to finish first – or third.

Edwards leads with 30 percent in a poll of Democratic voters who said they intend to participate in the Jan. 3 presidential caucuses, followed by Clinton with 26 percent and Obama with 24 percent. When the sample was narrowed to the most likely caucus-goers, based on several questions, Obama leads Edwards by less than a percentage point with 27 percent, with Clinton in third place at 24 percent.

Edwards holds a significant advantage, however, among a group who could be key to the first contest of the presidential year: those who say their first choice is someone other than the top three. Under Iowa Democratic Party rules, candidates who poll less than 15 percent in the first vote at each caucus around the state are eliminated, and their supporters get a second chance to vote for another candidate.

Under both screens, Edwards leads as the second choice of these voters, with Clinton trailing Obama.

[dmallind]

1. Cool

I like Edwards. He's my number two guy. I doubt he can put together a viable 50 state campaign to secure the nomination, but if he gets a win or two early he may be able to get some momentum going. Up until a couple of weeks ago I thought he was well positioned to make a surge but then assumed it was too late. Perhaps he will prove me wrong (well initially right, but too willing to change my mind I guess so eventually wrong).

[Fried Bread]

2. Outlier

[CoffeeCat]

3. This is precisely why Clinton will be third...

...in Iowa.

Edwards and Obama have run very stellar campaigns here in Iowa. I can't say enough
about Obama's organization. He's ran a very high-energy campaign and if I had a nickle
for every time the campaign made contact with me, I could buy this election! Edwards
knows how to win Iowa. His campaign may not have garnered him excessive media attention,
but he took his message to untold small towns and met with people in small groups. This
is they key to motivating supporters to the caucuses.

Also, as this article states, caucus goers who support non-viable candidates will have
to choose another candidate on caucus day--if they want their vote to count. Last time
I caucused, every caucus goer (supporting these non-viable candidates) joined another camp.
Who gets that non-viable-candidate support is really key!

Obama and Edwards are the top choices for people who are caucusing for candidates who
will probably not be viable (Biden, Richardson, Dodd, Kucinich).

Obama and Edwards are going to run away with Iowa. Hillary will be a very distant
third. She's so vulnerable, that it's entirely possible that one of the second-tier
candidates could beat her.

This should be really interesting.