Poll shows Kerry leads Edwards by 41 points in NY

[Freddie Stubbs]

Sen. John F. Kerry maintains a huge lead among New York Democrats likely to vote in the March 2 presidential primary, according to a new statewide poll by Canisius College, but the survey also shows Sen. John Edwards "surging" since his strong showing in Wisconsin on Tuesday.
The results show the four-term senator from Massachusetts dominating the field with 57 percent, compared with 16 percent for Edwards and 11 percent for former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who has since left the race.

But the situation could change significantly, the Canisius pollsters say, because of evidence that Edwards is capitalizing on momentum from his second-place finish in Wisconsin. They point out that in polling conducted last Tuesday before Wisconsin results were available, the first-term senator from North Carolina scored only 9 percent. But after his Wisconsin results were widely reported, his share jumped to 22 in polling conducted Wednesday through Friday.

"I think this is the beginning of something," said Michael V. Haselswerdt, a Canisius political scientist. "This snapshot suggests that within a period of four days, we saw a movement. That's what the campaign is about now."

more: http://www.buffalonews.com/editorial/20040222/1017430.asp

[boxster]

1. He's up by a similar margin in CA.

Edwards' "momentum" from WI was, and is still being, overrated. 15% of his votes were from Republicans, and he *still* lost by 5%. It's going to be difficult to replicate that performance in states that don't allow Repubs and Independents to vote in the primaries.

Past results are not an indicator of future performance.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. Objects in mirror may be

receding into the distance.

[mdmc]

4. I represent 242 democrats in my ward

only 30 or so vote in the primary.
When I was GOTV for Howard Dean, most would listen to me, then ask, "Why not Kerry?"
Kerry will have a great chance in NY, however, there is alot of folks going abk = Kucinich or Edwards.

If I was Kerry I would play a very high expectations game (I will blow Edwards out of this race!). He only loses if he loses.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

8. The expectations game is the only game in politics

and Kerry has predicted no blow outs.

[AP]

7. That's the opposite of what this article says.

[Cuban_Liberal]

3. Gee, where did that 66-14 lead go, Sen. Kerry?

We're coming, senator... :evilgrin:

[DrFunkenstein]

5. Any Thoughts On March 3 If Edwards Doesn't Close The Gap?

I have some, but I might be a little biased.

[Cuban_Liberal]

9. Yes.

If Sen. Edwards isn't completely blown out on March 2nd, and I mean blown out in a BIG way, your man has a fight on his hands, because 'Southern Super Tuesday' is just a week away, followed by IL, etc. on March 16th.

I can honestly see this fight going on into mid-April, and maybe beyond. Finally, if Dr. Dean comes on board after March 2nd (as is being rumored may happen), the whole dynamic of this race could change overnight, IMO.

:hi:

[jmoss]

14. and if it reaches mid-April

Edwards can play some more cath-up. North Carolina moved its caucus up to April 14th (from its original June time-frame)!

[Cuban_Liberal]

24. I agree.

Kerry has to knock edwards out decisively March 2nd, or this is likely to be a long and bloody fight, especially if Dr. Dean endorses him like Gen. Clark and Rep. Gephardt did Sen. Kerry.

[jenk]

6. well, he was up by 52 just a few days ago

and now the lead is 41, Edwards closing the gap once again!

[AP]

20. It's probably a smaller gap. They say Edwards was up to 22 on the last

day, before he had his NY campaign stops, which is 6 pts higher than the avg. Say that came out of Kerry's share, the gap could be as low as 28, and getting lower.

[THUNDER HANDS]

10. Edwards got a poor review in Newsday

Too populist for New York. Though I have no doubt they'd vote for him if he was the nominee.

But New York is Kerry Country. He fits well here.

[Cuban_Liberal]

11. Isn't Newsday a Repub paper?

Just curious...

[jenk]

12. the NY Post is

Newsday is more of a Long Island newspaper. It leans left but is not ultra liberal

[NewYorkerfromMass]

13. No. It's very liberal. eom

[Cuban_Liberal]

15. OK. Thanks!

Y'all have too many newspapers to keep track of! (j/k) :P

[jmoss]

16. Newsday is liberal..But Long Island is all-about the GOP

:-( Put it this way: Rep. Pete King (R) has had his seat for a long time!! Long Islanders don't take too well to southerners, unless their names are Andy Petite or roger Clemens (I'm from Bethpage, NY).

But being an Edwards supporter, I'll keep making phone calls, keeping up the faith, and watching for great JRE debates!!

[THUNDER HANDS]

17. it isn't that Edwards is southern

Clinton carried Long Island twice and so did Gore, by big margins.

But Long Island and New York benefit a lot from NAFTA and free trade. So someone who's anti-Nafta, as Edwards is, is going to be frowned upon by the socially liberal, but economically conservative Northeast.

[jmoss]

26. but we're talking about the Primary...LI, NY will support DEm's

.in 2004 Gen Election. The point we need to get across is that edwards has a better chance of getting "cross-over" votes.

New Yorkers have been voting Dem. for Senate & Pres the past 10 years; but Rep. for Gov ( & mayor in NYC).

I hope New more New Yorkers vote for Edwards, realizing he's a better over-all candidate--not just Kerry because he's been in Senate longer. Being in the Senate a long time has not helped any candidate win since Kennedy!

If your dissatisfied with Pres. Bush--vote Edwards. Otherwise your relecting Pres. Bush.

(actually-this might be a nice, controversial thread!)

[Lex]

18. Has Kerry screwed up his delegate count in NY?

I heard there was a recent article in the Boston Globe that Kerry's campaign did not file delegate slates in nine of the state's 29 congressional districts, meaning Kerry is ineligible to claim a third of the delegates regardless of how he fares in voting.

I can't find a link to the article now, but am searching.

[Cuban_Liberal]

19. Maybe, because Edwards did the same in my IL congressional district.

These things get so rushed, etc., that some times folks just forget. Edwards HAD 7 delegates lined up, but someone screwed up and only filed 4 of the petitions. :shrug:

[Freddie Stubbs]

21. He is also not on the ballot in Vermont

[Cuban_Liberal]

22. yup.

But I suspect a lot of 'loyalty/hometown boy' voted will go to Dean any way, in which case Edwards would likely have not gotten any in any event... VT was never 'in play' for Edwards.

[Freddie Stubbs]

27. That didn't really happen in Missouri

Gepahrdt got less votes than Sharpton (but more than Kucinich) in the MO primary after he dropped out.

[trogdor]

23. Dean, however, is running delegates in all 29 districts.

We exceeded the standard nine times over. Kerry did not. Upstate Dean groups haven't yet thrown in the towel.

[Cuban_Liberal]

25. If you folks manage to hold Kerry down in NY delegates....

... this race could become VERY interesting March 3rd... :evilgrin:

[mdmc]

28. Not sure what all are doing

but all I know is KUCINICH in March!