2nd choice support in Iowa: Edwards 28%, Obama 20%, Hillary 14%

[Stop Cornyn]

A Rasmussen poll this week of likely Democratic caucus-goers found that Edwards was the second-choice candidate for 28 percent of respondents, compared with 20 percent for Obama and 14 percent for Clinton and Richardson. Among supporters of the candidates least likely to make the threshold - Richardson, Representative Dennis J. Kucinich of Ohio, and Senators Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware - 29 percent said Edwards was their second choice, compared with 24 percent for Obama, 15 percent for Clinton.

[MadBadger]

1. That may not be enough for Edwards to get 1st though.

Well see.

[Radical Activist]

2. I've been waiting for a second choice poll.

I think Edwards did so well last time by picking up a lot of second choice votes.

I didn't know that Obama had the same guy running his Iowa campaign that Kerry had. Kerry's strong ground organization in Iowa is a big reason why he won. That makes me more confident that Obama will win Iowa. Clinton will finish third.

[sandnsea]

4. I think Edwards will win Iowa

Dodd and Richardson will probably throw their supporters to Edwards to keep Obama from winning, to help Hillary. I don't know what Biden will do. We also don't have Kennedy, Gore or Kerry endorsements which could tip things as well. I don't think this is wrapped for Obama at all. I think a lot of the reason Kerry won is because Gephardt's people went for him. I don't know what Obama's people can do to get these second tier people because I think they're just too inclined to support the Clintons. The individuals would have to reject her on a personal level, regardless of what their candidate asked them to do. We'll see.

[forsberg]

8. I think alot of Gephardts support went to Edwards in 04

[Stop Cornyn]

12. Lot's of Gephardt supporters, and lots of Deaniacs, too.

[jefferson_dem]

3. The 29 percent for Edwards, 24 for Obama, 15 for Hillary numbers are most important

These only include second preferences for those candidates who are not likely to reach the 15 percent viability mark - Richardson, Kucinich, Dodd, and Biden.

It doesn't make sense to include second-place numbers for supporters of the top three.

[Stop Cornyn]

5. Actually, it DOES make sense to include the 2nd-choice numbers for the supporters of the top tier

because the 15% threshold is measured precinct by precinct. Historically, there will be precincts where even the top candidate craps out and other precincts where even the loseryest loser makes the cut-off. While there will be more precincts where Biden, Dodd, and Richardson fail to make the 15% cut off, there will be non-viable precincts for all of the candidates.

[jsamuel]

13. yep

[Stop Cornyn]

6. "Among those who have participated in a caucus before, it’s Edwards 25%, Clinton 25% and Obama 23%"

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/iowa/democratic_iowa_caucus

[Czolgosz]

16. The fact that Edwards is tied for the lead among prior caucus participants is more important than

that his wide lead in second choice support. Together, the two numbers tell the whole picture.

[Stop Cornyn]

17. Agreed (in retrospect). Prior caucus participant support numbers should have been the focus of my OP

[Diane R]

7. "Candidacies could be made or lost". Nice that the United States of Iowa gets to decide for us.

[Beacool]

15. Actually, they don't.

There are plenty of nominees and presidents who didn't win in IA. For example, Bill Clinton didn't even bother with IA and came in second place in NH and still won the nomination.

I have yet to hear in any election, that people would vote for X candidate just because they won in IA. At least not in my part of the country.

[Quixote1818]

9. Now we know why Newsweek put him on the cover

The numbers seem to suggest he is going to win Iowa.

[Tejanocrat]

18. I think so too.

[Tom Rinaldo]

10. I honestly don't know if the DMR endorsement swings many votes

I assume it influences some people or multiple candidates wouldn't have gone through the trouble of seeking it. I would assume this poll was done befor the Register announced.

And yes I know there are a lot of people in Iowa unhappy with the DMR's choice for an endorsement, but still, I wonder if it will shift any of these numbers?

[surfermaw]

11. They are afraid he is going to win, and don't want egg on their face

CNN and all the others that have tried to put Obama and Hillary in first and second are afraid now that Edwards is going to come in first and they will havae egg smeared on their faces...just that simple, I don't think Edwards has ever been behind.

[calteacherguy]

14. Hmmm....better Edwards than her

as far as second support goes. I'm very O.K. with that.

[elizm]

19. I think that means Hillary loses. nt