dailykos.com 2008: 12/12 straw poll results Edwards still out front

[Omaha Steve]

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/12/12/175918/99

by kos
Wed Dec 12, 2007 at 03:33:31 PM PST

dKos Reader Poll. 12/12 -- 8:44 a.m. to 3:05 p.m. PT. 14,804 respondents.

2007
Dec12 Nov Oct Sept Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan

Edwards 39 33 31 39 34 36 40 39 42 38 26 35
Obama 30 27 16 21 29 27 22 24 25 26 25 28
Kucinich 8 9 5 6 4 3 2 2 2 4
H. Clinton 8 9 9 11 8 9 6 6 3 3 4 4
Dodd 2 7 21 7 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
No F'ing Clue 4 4 5 5 5 7 7 5 8 6 * *
Biden 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Richardson 1 1 2 1 6 5 8 13 8 6 5 4
Other 1 3 6 5 7 9 6 5 9 8 * *
Gravel 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 0 0

"Other" has collapsed as people realize that Gore isn't running, while the support of just about everyone else is fleeing to one of the two potential "anti-Hillary" candidates.

I voted "Obama" this time, not necessarily because I support him, but because the alternatives are no good. Hillary? Yeah right. Edwards? If he hadn't taken public financing, I'd probably go for him (and who doesn't have a crush on Elizabeth?). But I refuse to vote for a guy who will be broke for about seven months in 2008 while the other side beats the crap out of him. I know his partisans have convinced themselves that this doesn't just not matter, but that it's a good thing! Good for them, I guess.

That doesn't mean I think Obama walks on water. Far from it. The guy is going around idiotically attacking Paul Krugman, dancing with homophobic preachers, and while his rhetoric is beautiful upon first listening, an hour later you're left wondering if he said anything of substance at all (and the answer is usually "no").

But this became "process of elimination" for me. I don't "support" Obama, I just plan on voting for him.

And at the end, I'll just be excited to bid adieu to the primary wars and get enthusiastically behind whoever wins, wether it's Obama, Edwards, or Clinton.

[SoFlaJet]

1. As Edwards said this morning on Morning Joe

"if you win the Iowa caucus the money starts pouring in so fast you can't even count it"

[cali]

2. That doesn't solve the problem he'll have if he's the nominee

It's the time between which he beomes the putative nominee and the Convention that's the problem.

[SoFlaJet]

5. Take it as it comes cali

as Bruce Springsteen once said in a great song-I need to find that song again

[Ninga]

6. The DNC and other organizations will fill the gap and finally put to rest that the

candidate with the most money wins.

This will be a watershed election and the most important in the last 4 decades.

It will send shock waves though the political conventional wisdom community -

The 2 defining messages will be "the people have spoken and have taken their country back" and "money can't buy you everything"

[cali]

9. That will help, and it's certainly not impossible by any means

for him to win if he's nominee, but it's not as simple as you seem to think. The DNC is the only part of the dem fundraising team that isn't doing well. And 527s can't do candidate ads. The repukes will have the opportunity to frame both their candidate positively and Edwards negatively. Edwards won't have the funds to battle that with positive candidate ads. Also, the 527s and the DNC can't coordinate with the campaign. He can do it, but it will be a struggle to get the right message out.

[Ninga]

10. I have lived a very long time and strongly believe we finally have an authentic

opportunity to change the way things are done - and what I mean is money and politics.

Whether or not this genuine opportunity is realized by the voters, is not in my control.

I am just saying....sit back and watch the process play out and be a witness to history.


History is made all the time......it would be so very cool to be able to say to my grandchildren (I have 4) that a sea change took place and I was able to witness.


All things are possible.......John Edwards must believe that......he has to.......just look at how life's irony has touch him.......that is why I believe at his core, he will change the course this county is rushing down hill toward.

[cali]

11. I don't do political saviors- ever.

I think it's a huge mistake. And I may not have lived as long as you have, but I do have some knowledge about politics. Even if he's elected, it's very doubtful that it would signify a sea change.

And unfortunate as it is, the general campaign will be, to a significant degree, about framing. And framing takes money. Lots of it.

[Ninga]

15. Well....money didn't help John Kerry....did it? And either Clinton or Obama will

burn out......and take their money with them....which one....when....I can't say.

Message and candidate does matter....

And John Edwards is far and away not a "political savior"......he is running on his core beliefs in one of the most historic primary seasons EVER.

Clinton and Obama have siphoned off lots of money....and Edwards being outspent by 300% is still in the hunt.

Really, who could predict he has stayed in the top three. With the crowds and the M$M fawning over Clinton and Obama, Edwards should not be in double digits. He should have been knocked out by now....especially since Clinton and Obama are good candidates. Their money and their message should have knocked Edwards out.....but it hasn't.

I think it is amayzing.

[cali]

17. hello? of course money helped JK, and many of us think that

election was stolen, but if he hadn't had sufficient funding it's likely that they wouldn't have had to steal it.

Yes, of course either Obama or Clinton will fall by the wayside. You can't have two nominees. But the odds are both of them won't.

Edwards should be in the hunt. He's spent years camped out in Iowa. And that's where he's in the hunt. The other early states? Not so much. He's put everything into Iowa. If he wins there, it's possible he'll parlay that into winning the nomination. But he's not ahead in Iowa, which was very much his plan. It was easy to predict he'd be in the top three in Iowa. In fact, it would have been stunning if he hadn't.

Obama entering the race really did throw a monkey wrench in JE's plans. He positioned himself as THE anti-Clinton. With Obama in the race that avenue became closed to him.

[Ninga]

19. Edwards has adjusted to the dynamics of the race, planned his strategey accordingly and

and in internal polling in many individual states accross the county wins by a higher percenage than Clinton/Obama.

If he is able to over come the roadblocks and/or monkey wrenchs then your convential wisdom will fail.


And that is exactly my premiss....that convential wisdom stands a good chance of losing this time around.

I have enjoed debating this with you......it helps me to put my thoughts into words.

[cali]

20. internal polling is notorious for it's inaccuracy.

And if you're talking about internal polling matching him with repuke candidates, it's waaay early for that. Any of them can win over this field of repukes.

My analysis is mine- and it's not even the conventional wisdom, by and large, but I agree that if he wins the nomination he has a good chance of winning the presidency.

I've also enjoyed our debate. In the fullness of time we'll see whose analysis is the most accurate.

[mother earth]

13. Amen to that, Ninga!!!!!

:woohoo:

[Ninga]

16. It's good when "Mother Earth" says Amen!

[Ninga]

3. I thought that whole interview this morning, was very interesting. They threw some

very substantive questions at Edwards and gave him time to answer.

I thought it was a very solid and constructive interview. Edwards did very well.

[FreakinDJ]

4. Too bad - I think Edwards is the only REAL CANDIDATE

in the race

[Ninga]

8. It is not too bad....it is a good thing. Not to worry.

[cali]

12. And I think

he's not so real. We all have our perceptions of the candidates. It's impossible to say who's right.

[saltpoint]

7. After Markos' Obama nod this week, it's an interesting poll result of his

registered readers.

[BenDavid]

14. AWE MAN, AND KOS IS SUCH A SCIENTIFIC POLL....NOT!!!

[robcon]

18. I think Edwards will drop out after 3 or 4 third place finishes in early primaries.

Polls show he's in third in Iowa, and distant third in NH, Nevada and South Carolina.

Who will get Edwards' voters in the rest of the primaries?

http://www.pollster.com/08-IA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
http://www.pollster.com/08-NH-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
http://www.pollster.com/08-NV-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
http://www.pollster.com/08-SC-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

[cali]

21. The odds are stacked against Edwards winning the nomination

and I can see him dropping out if he has lackluster showings in the early states.