More Blacks Lean Toward Obama - Democratic Underground

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Fri Dec-14-07 01:11 AM
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More Blacks Lean Toward Obama

Shift in Allegiance From Clinton
Could Tighten Primaries in South
By JONATHAN KAUFMAN and VALERIE BAUERLEIN
December 14, 2007; Page A5

Barack Obama's rising poll numbers among white voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are having an unexpected ripple effect: Some black voters are switching their allegiance from Hillary Clinton and lining up behind him too. That could mean a further tightening of the Democratic presidential race, especially in southern states where blacks make up as many as half of Democratic primary voters.

The evidence of movement is most clear in South Carolina, site of the first primary where black votes figure to make a significant impact. There, four polls now show Illinois Sen. Obama with a lead among African-American voters for the Jan. 26 vote. As a result, the race in South Carolina has tightened, with some polls calling it a dead heat. A Rasmussen poll completed last week among South Carolina voters shows Mr. Obama now attracting 51% of the African-American vote, compared with 27% for Mrs. Clinton. A month ago, the candidates were tied among South Carolina black voters. Along with other polls, Rasmussen shows the two candidates essentially tied among all South Carolina voters.

Readings of the national black vote are less clear, but there are suggestions of movement there also. A Pew Research poll completed late last month shows New York Sen. Clinton and Mr. Obama virtually tied among black voters nationwide; two months ago Mrs. Clinton held a 12-point advantage. But an ABC News/Washington Post poll this week shows Mrs. Clinton still with a commanding lead among African-Americans nationwide.

"We're in a better position today than ever before, and a significant amount is due to the movement of African-American voters," says Steve Hildebrand, Mr. Obama's deputy campaign chairman.

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The black vote is likely to be crucial in the cascade of primaries that follow Iowa and New Hampshire next year. Blacks make up almost half of Democratic primary voters in South Carolina and Georgia, one third in Virginia and a quarter in Tennessee. They also make up a fifth of primary voters in New York and 15% in Delaware and Ohio.

A big factor behind the rise in black support for Mr. Obama in South Carolina appears to be his popularity among white voters, though he is also expanding his outreach to black voters, and many of his views, especially his opposition to the Iraq war and support of social programs, resonate strongly with them.

"I see how charisma is among other races," says Ed Robinson, owner of Posh soul-food restaurant in downtown Florence, S.C. "He has been able to attract people from all races." Mr. Robinson said he strongly considered backing Mrs. Clinton but has now decided to back Mr. Obama.

"A lot of African-Americans in the South have questions about whether a black candidate can be elected president," says David Bositis of the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, which studies black issues. "Picking someone who is going to have a good chance to win is very much on their minds. If Obama shows he can win and that white voters can vote for him, there will be a lot of African-Americans who will be lining up to support him."

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