Three Probable Scenarios for IA, NH, SC

[Perky]

Scenario 1: Obama wins Iowa with over 40% takes that big mo' into NH and wins there but by a close amount. Hilary finishes in second in both but everyone else hangs it up. They roll into SC as Hillary's last chance... but its too late and her African-American base deserts her and it is all over.


Scenario 2: Obama squeaks out a win in Iowa Hillary hangs on in NH Everybody else drops out. Setting up an epic battle in South Carolina. If Obama wins SC it is all over. If Hillary wins... they fight again on Super Tuesday. If the party is still undecided after that, it's a blood bath in Denver because there are not enough delegates left to win the nomination outright.


Scenario 3: Hillary comes back in Iowa and squeaks out a win. The Inevitability Train rumbles into NH and runs smack into New Hampshire's independent minded voters. Obama wins there. Setting up an epic battle in South Carolina. If Obama wins SC it is all over. If Hillary wins... they fight again on Super Tuesday. If the party is still undecided after that it's a blood bath in Denver because there are not enough delegates left to win the nomination outright.


Which one is the most likely? DUe respect to the backers of other candidates. Unless they finish in the top three in Iowa, their chances are zilch. Due Respect to John Edwards fans. He has to win Iowa big because he is blip in NH and lagging badly in SC. Given all the trending its is doubtful he can pull a big win in Iowa unless someone stumbles badly.

THe scenarios are based on current trend lines.

[Colobo]

1. #2. Which one do you think is most likely?

[Flabbergasted]

2. The most likely is 3 and Hill taking the whole thing.

[Colobo]

4. Mmm... she won't.

[Flabbergasted]

5. I hope your right.

Obama's still behind nationally.

[Perky]

3. Right now I think Obama wins Iowa easily

and Hilary slips to 3rd slighty behind Edwards.

38% 26% 25% with the final 11% undecided.

Howards Fineman is right.

[Bullet1987]

6. #3 isn't likely

because if she wins Iowa...she's likely to win NH as well...same for Obama. Which is why I stand behind scenario #1.

[Yukari Yakumo]

7. My scenario

Don't forget Nevada sits before SC.

Obama wins by a modest margin in IA (approx 3-7%), Hill #2, Edwards #3. Dodd, Gravel drop out.
Hill wins in NH by a small margin (3% or less), Obama #2. Biden, Richardson drop out.
Hill crushes Obama in NV.
Hill beats Obama in SC by a modest margin.
Edwards will stay in until after SupTues. Kuch never drops out. Hill takes the nom.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

13. I'm not so sure about Hillary in NH any more.

First off, she's already going down in the NH polls and so far hasn't found the bottom. I've always felt that support for her, while broad, was not very deep. If Obama wins in Iowa he suddenly looks like a much more viable candidate, and it could change a lot of minds in NH and bring over a ton of undecideds. If he wins *big* in Iowa then Hillary is in very deep shit - not just in NH but everywhere.

[rucky]

8. 3 candidates nearly all the way through - Obama & Clinton take turns taking states

Edwards wins a few, too, but runs out of dough before April.

Of course, if Biden shows in Iowa, all bets are off.

[Kucinich4America]

9. ANY scenario which results in this thing going all the way to Denver

Is what's best for the country. Even if (God forbid) Hillary won at that point, at least you could kid yourself into believing she did something to earn it.

[Occam Bandage]

10. Your scenarios seem to imply that Obama has more safety nets than Clinton does.

She's still far better situated for Super Tuesday than he is. I'd reverse the "it's all over"s and "they go on to ST"s.

[Perky]

11. It built on current trending in Iowa the candidates are not mirror images

Hillary is fully known and for lack of a better name is the institutional candidate.

Her number are not likely to move up in Iowa and so unless she wins big in Iowa, her Numbers probably will not rise in NH.

If Obama wins Iowa, he gets a second look in NH by every one who is not lockstep for Hillary.

I honestly think they split the first two tilts. So it really is about South Carolina. The field will narrow and there will be a modest drift towards Obama from supporters of those that abandon the race, But the big thing is that Black voter ranks will likely swell and they make up a huge percent of the Democratic electorate in the state.


Obama has to win Iowa in my view. Hillary has to win New Hampshire If one of them wins both it is over.

[Bullet1987]

17. I agree...

it's very possible we'll see a sweep of the early states if either Obama or Clinton win Iowa AND New Hampshire.

[BootinUp]

12. Scenario 4. HRC will be there on Super Tuesday

no matter what.

[0007]

14. It is interesting but totally unpredictable.

Couldn't bring myself to vote.

[Renew Deal]

15. No one will finish Iowa with over 40%

If someone does, the race might end right there.

[IA_Seth]

21. Agreed.

Any win in Iowa will be marginal at best.

[robcon]

16. Most likely: Clinton wins all three primaries.

Iowa close, the other two comfortably...

-Biden drops out after getting about 5% in Iowa, less than that in NH.
-Dodd drops out after NH as well.
-Edwards drops out after SC (three third place finishes - maybe he'll last until Nevada.)

It's a Clinton/Obama campaign after that. I don't know if Richardson stays in... my feeling is that he probably will, but will be also-ran.

[geek tragedy]

18. Obama will win NH if he wins Iowa.

He's actually ahead there now.

[racaulk]

19. Other: Edwards in IA, Obama in NH, Clinton in SC

The race in Iowa is a virtual dead heat and I have a feeling Edwards is going to surprise some folks by his showing there. I predict an Obama squeaker over Clinton in NH, and then Clinton will take SC easily. Then it's on to Super Tuesday with all three of them still in the race.

I predict Biden and Dodd will have dropped out by the time the SC winner is declared, due to either lack of funds (Biden) or name recognition (Dodd). I imagine Kucinich will hang in there up until the convention like in 2004. As far as Richardson goes, I have no idea when he'll drop out, but I doubt he will win any primaries.

[IA_Seth]

20. As an Iowan..

I don't think Obama wins here, regardless of poll numbers, unless his campaign changes it's focus from revival-esque mega events to more intimate, retail politics. His campaign needs to focus far more on motivating people to become caucus goers, and far less on influencing polling.

Of course that's my opinion and you can take it for what it's worth. As someone living here and seeing the thing unfold I can tell you that Obama's campaign has been courting the young vote - which is not a group that shows up to caucus with any sort of reliability.

A scenario I see is Edwards winning Iowa, Clinton #2, and Obama coming in 3rd. My prediction isn't supported by the polls, but the real scenario never is.

We'll see.