Newsweek Iowa Poll -Clinton -30% Obama 29% Edwards 21%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Among likely voters-Obama 35% Clinton 29% Edwards 18%


http://www.newsweek.com/id/74215/page/2

[Benhurst]

1. Still, it's a sound and a fury,

signifying nothing. We won't know until the caucuses make their decision.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Depends On Which Model

It's hard to predict a caucus where only five percent or so of registered voters participate...

Poor John Edwards...

[jefferson_dem]

5. When a candidate resorts to releasing "internal numbers" you know they are in trouble.

Edwards is against the wall.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. He Might Start Attacking Obama

If you think about it Obama messed up HRC's and Edwards's plans because they both expected the other to be their main competitor...

[jefferson_dem]

8. I'm surprised Edwards hasn't set his sights on Obama already.

He's kind of served as Obama's "stalking horse" against Hillary.

On another note, I read somewhere that Hillary decided to go aggresive against Obama knowing full well that it might hurt her...but also believed that, when Obama responded, it would drive up his negatives. Not sure that's played out the way she hoped but I do know that she doesn't worry about Edwards being a long-term threat.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. It's The Classic Traditional Democrat (Clinton) Against The Insurgent (Obama)

I can't believe Edwards is going to give up the "insurgent" position so easily and "go into that good night"; not with Joe Triipi as his yoga...

[mzmolly]

14. I can't help but wonder if his wifes health his wearing on him?

It's perfectly understandable. Remember Dean was running to add to the debate, and essentially got scared when he was the front runner? Perhaps Edwards is running at this point to promote a return of the Democratic Party to the working class? Also, he may want a VP slot again?

[BeyondGeography]

12. Obama said it was "silliness," rolled out JFK-era figure Harris Wofford

and told the kids he would double national service so they could "step into the currents of history."

Really got into the mud with her.

Oh, and, on the side, they did stuff like this:

http://www.iowavotes2008.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4127&Itemid=72

One campaign has its act together. I hope people are really watching.

[Carrieyazel]

25. Obama has a hard road to hoe as well. Hard to determine what caucusgoers will actually do.

He has not come close to closing the deal yet. Same for all the other candidates.

[Hieronymus]

15. Wow, another who doesn't believe polls, if they don't coincide with their

preference, no doubt.

[Benhurst]

16. Actually, I think Edwards may pull off an upset.

:rofl:

The polls are not to be trusted in this sort of contest, even at this close date.

[Ken Burch]

2. Interesting. Yet, a lot of candidates have been nominated in Iowa

Then dethroned in New Hampshire. And Obama's momentum could slip away, like Edwards' did in Iowa in '04.

[MethuenProgressive]

4. "standings in the Dem. campaign have not changed dramatically since the September"

"Unlike the GOP race, standings in the Democratic campaign have not changed dramatically since the September NEWSWEEK poll in Iowa."
:shrug:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Good News For Everybody In That Poll But John Edwards

That's why he leaked that internal poll showing it a toss up... It almost is but not quite...

[Tellurian]

10. K&L

[Skip Intro]

21. K&L?

[Tellurian]

28. ...

(I have a cold) must be the dayquil! :rofl:

[Cameron27]

11. I thought he'd be the one to profit from the

Obama/Clinton boxing match. Maybe he will in the end.

[avrdream]

20. In Iowa, Biden may profit.

Is there a recent Iowa poll about second choice? Let me tell you, if it works like down here in Oz, that second place deal is quite important.

But, Go Hill!

[HughMoran]

13. Hey, there's a poll a minute lately!

My head is spinning trying to decipher what the trends are!

[jzodda]

17. Wow the Edwards drop is the big surprise to me. Hes falling like a stone

nt

[liskddksil]

18. This is the only recent poll showing Edwards dropping

the sample size of only 395 is also tiny.

[Sparkly]

19. It looked almost like a 3-way tie recently

What happened with Edwards?

[JI7]

22. i think this poll was done before the recent one

which had Edwards tied with Clinton.

the next one might have Edwards at least 2nd place with Hillary 3rd.

[Sparkly]

23. Ah

I think it's anybody's guess what will happen in Iowa.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. Nope

This poll was concluded on Thursday...

Expect him to double up on his Obama attacks...

[Carrieyazel]

24. I have a hard time believing that any candidate in Iowa is above 25% right now.

The state is just too undecided right now, with a lot of people very willing to change their minds.

[Capn Sunshine]

26. Not if you use Clinton phone lists as your baseline

Wondering how they pimped up a poll to get Hill on top? That's how. Funny that.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. You Mean The Edwards Campaign Internal Poll

Edwards Campaign Internal Poll Finds Statistical Tie In Iowa



The memo claims that the poll was completed Wednesday night, finding that Hillary has 27% of likely caucus goers, Edwards has 24%, and Obama has 22%. "Support for the top three candidates is so close that it is impossible to distinguish among them with the commonly accepted level of statistical confidence," the memo says.








http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2007/12/edwards_campaign_internal_poll_finds_statistical_tie_in_iowa.php

[suston96]

30. Time out: consider this.....

Iowa Democratic Caucus Time Capsule: October 2003

As Hillary Clinton continues to lead by a modest margin in most public polls in Iowa with the caucus three months away, a look back to polls in October 2003 reminds one of how quickly things can change just a few months before the caucuses.

In the three public polls released in October 2003 by Zogby, SurveyUSA, and KCCI-TV / Research 2000, Richard Gephardt led in every poll, with Howard Dean a close second. Gephardt, who only received 11 percent of the vote on Caucus Day (a distant fourth place finish), enjoyed an average measured support of 25 percent in the three polls.

Dean, who finished third in Iowa with a disappointing 18 percent, averaged 23 percent of the vote in October 2003 polling.

John Edwards was a distant fourth in the October 2003 polls, averaging just 9 percent. Edwards went on to a very strong second place in the Iowa Caucuses, winning 32 percent of the vote.

John Kerry, who averaged only 13 percent in October 2003 polling, went on to earn nearly triple that support on Caucus Day, winning 38 percent of the vote in January 2004.

"Inevitability" is the word of the month as Senator Clinton dominates in the national Democratic Party horserace polling and enjoys one successful fundraising quarter after another. The plight of Dean, who was also raising eyebrows with his fundraising skills in 2003, should be a cautionary reminder of how nothing in politics is inevitable.

http://blog.lib.umn.edu/oster017/smartpolitics/2007/10/iowa_democratic_caucus_time_ca.html

Also browse around here. Amazing but forgotten stats as to where John Kerry was a month before the Iowa caucuses.

[suston96]

31. Rasmussen.....National Today.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

Hillary 36
Obama 25
Edwards 15

[forsberg]

32. Edwards hada huge Iowa surge in 04

Not enough to stop Kerry, but I wouldn't count him out yet. Late deciders might break towards him again.