Hillary Clinton Might Be the Least Electable Democrat

[babylonsister]

Hillary Clinton Might Be the Least Electable Democrat

By Guy T. Saperstein, AlterNet. Posted December 7, 2007.

While Hillary Clinton maintains her lead in national polling among Democrats, in direct match-ups against Republicans, she consistently trails her competitors.


Last Sunday's New York Times contained an op-ed by Frank Rich ("Who's Afraid of Barack Obama," Dec. 2) suggesting that, for a variety of reasons, Barack Obama is the Democrat the Republicans fear most. While Rich emphasized Obama's authenticity, his early and unequivocal opposition to the Iraq war and his cross-over appeal to independents and Republicans, missing from his otherwise excellent article were polling results confirming why Republicans fear an Obama presidential candidacy and why they would prefer to run against Hillary Clinton.

While Clinton maintains her lead in national polling among Democrats, in direct matchups against Republican presidential candidates, she consistently runs behind both Barack Obama and John Edwards. In the recent national Zogby Poll (Nov. 26, 2007), every major Republican presidential candidate beats Clinton: McCain beats her 42 percent to 38 percent; Giuliani beats her 43 percent to 40 percent; Romney beats her 43 percent to 40 percent; Huckabee beats her 44 percent to 39 percent; and Thompson beats her 44 percent to 40 percent, despite the fact Thompson barely appears to be awake most of the time.

By contrast, Obama beats every major Republican candidate: He beats McCain 45 percent to 38 percent; Guiliani 46 percent to 41 percent; Romney 46 percent to 40 percent; Huckabee 46 percent to 40 percent; and, Thompson 47 percent to 40 percent. In other words, Obama consistently runs 8 to 11 percent stronger than Clinton when matched against Republicans. To state the obvious: The Democratic presidential candidate will have to run against a Republican.

Clinton's inherent weakness as a candidate shows up in other ways. In direct matchups for congressional seats, Democrats currently are running 10 percent to 15 percent ahead of Republicans, depending on the poll, while Clinton runs 3 percent to 7 percent behind -- a net deficit ranging from 13 to 22 percent. No candidate in presidential polling history ever has run so far behind his or her party.

To look at Clinton's candidacy another way, Clinton runs well behind generic polling for the presidency: In the NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted Nov. 1-5, 2007, voters were asked, "Putting aside for a moment the question of who each party's nominee might be, what is your preference for the outcome of the 2008 presidential election -- that a Democrat be elected president or that a Republican be elected president?" By 50 percent to 35 percent, voters chose "Democrat" -- a 15-point edge. Thus, Clinton is running 10 to 15 percent, or more, behind the generic Democratic candidate. This is not a promising metric nor the numbers of a strong candidate.

more...

http://alternet.org/story/69916/?page=entire

[David Dunham]

1. Obama is the least electable. Racism is still widespread in the US.

It will be easier to elect a white woman than an African-American man.

[provis99]

4. Uh, except that the white woman in question is Hillary Clinton

that makes all the difference, in the minds of Independents.

[AndyTiedye]

15. I Don't Think Either One Is Electable

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. I Think Every Democrat Is Electable

Some candidates are more problematic than other...

[AndyTiedye]

38. I Sure Hope You Are Right

But all the polls are showing it as close enough to steal at best.

At a time when disapproval of the incumbent pResident is at an all-time high
our actual candidates are locked in a statistical tie with some of the
lamest and scariest Repiglicans ever to run for President.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. Right Now The Dems Have A Sixty Percent Chance Of Winning The White House

That sixty percent, imho, represents a floor not a ceiling...

[AndyTiedye]

42. I Like Those Odds, But Where Did They Come From?

And at best they would be a ceiling, not a floor.

This is as good as it gets for us.

The Mighty Slime Machine has not yet begun to slime our candidates.
They are just starting to sing the praises of the Repiglickin candidates.

They have 11 long months to build the Repiggies up and tear us down.
And then there is Diebold.
If it's close, it goes to the Supreme Court, and we know what will happen there.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

68. Intrade

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

[Prophet 451]

41. My view exactly

Hillary wouldn't be my preferred candidate but unless she does something incredibly stupid, she's entirely electable.

Then again, Chimpy has been such a disaster and the Repub candidates are so weak that we could probably get away with running Sparky the Wonder Goat.

[AndyTiedye]

43. That's What People Said Last Time (2004), and the Time Before That (2000)

This one is going to be even uglier than those.

[ChiciB1]

78. I Agree & Time Will Tell... n/t

[Quixote1818]

7. I don't think people have a problem with Hillary being a woman

people just don't like her personality. A lot of Democrats just don't think she is liberal enough and she doesn't inspire them. I work with several Republicans and they all HATE Hillary but seem to like Obama. They see him like a Michael Jordan or Tiger Woods type. He is a very likable person.

Also, the people who are prejudice of Blacks wouldn't be voting Democrat anyway.

[ChiciB1]

79. Very Likable, But I Don't Think Southerners Have Shed Enough Racism

yet. I'd think for the South, it would be a woman before a black. But I DON'T think it will be Hillary!

[lvx35]

39. Wow, that demonstrates the problem with "electability" right there.

So two dumb hicks won't vote for a black man, and are too dumb to understand or care about "electability". A smarter person who likes the black guy walks in, but notices that he is outnumbered by the hicks, therefore the black guy isn't electable, so he won't vote for him either. Two smart people walk in, but notice that they are outnumbered by the three, so the black guy they like isn't electable, so they won't vote for him either. 4 smart people walk in, and outnumbered by the 5, decide they won't vote for him. 8 walk in outnumbered by the 9 and change their votes. 16 are outnumbered by the 17 and so on.

Pretty soon 50 million people, all of whom like the african american candidate, won't vote for him because he's black and therefore "unelectable", thanks to a chain reaction started by two hicks. This is the problem with "electability". The solution is to be like the hicks: go for what you want and to hell with electability.

[FrenchieCat]

57. Well Said.......

50 million self fulfilling prophecies of those too afraid to do what they want to do ain't worth a damn! It's time to take a chance on change....dammit! :)

[ChiciB1]

80. Sound Like A LOT Of Repukes I KNOW!! You Analysis Fit Them To

A T!! Hate to use words like "red-necks" but if the shoe fits....

And in my part of the world, there are MANY MANY snobbish wealthy people who wouldn't vote for him for NUTHIN'!

[earthlover]

48. So we should not nominate Obama because of his race? Isn't THAT racist?

May as well be!

Sorry, but if the American voters reject Obama because he is black, that is racist.

But if we don't nominate him because he is black, how is that different?

I don't buy this for a minute. Polls indicate Obama beats every Rep candidate, and he is doing better than Hillary in this regard.

[earthlover]

49. 50% of voters would not consider voting for Hillary. Not because she is a woman....

...because she is Hillary.

[Occam Bandage]

56. Frankly, those who would not vote for him because of his race

are not voting for the Democrat regardless.

[FatDave]

65. Conventional wisdom would say you're correct

But I worry about the independents and possible republican crossovers. In fact, I worry about some democrats. My father-in-law is a lifelong democrat, mostly by virtue of being hardcore pro-union. But he's also a racist sonofabitch. My father, a republican very interested in John Edwards, though he would never admit it and does a great job hiding it, also has racist tendencies. Sadly, I think racism is a bigger problem than it appears on the surface. We do a good job keeping it hidden, but it's still there.

Is it bad enough to keep Obama from getting elected? I don't think so. I sure hope not. I think he'd make an excellent president. But I am kind of afraid.

[Occam Bandage]

89. Among the Democratic candidates, Obama has the highest approval rating among Republicans.

In head-to-heads, crossovers overwhelmingly favor Obama. Fear of "racism" has been, so far, completely unfounded.

[zulchzulu]

84. What utter bullshit

A person who is a racist certainly would not vote for a woman either...especially a woman named Clinton.

Give me a freaking break.

[gulliver]

86. How dare you state the obvious!

Obama stands a chance of transcending the racial bias, but he's no MLK when it comes to inspiration and nerve. Obama's a Senator from Illinois, an easy spot to win for any Democrat.

Obama's racial problem is not Republicans. All of them will vote against him. Obama's problem is race-biased Democrats and independents. I don't believe I have seen a single poll asking those groups whether or not they would ever consider voting for Obama in the general election.

Were Obama a political genius, a sage, and salesman on the merits, he might be able to bring home the bacon in 2008. I just don't see that though. I see a very gifted, somewhat reserved intellectual with occasional flashes of real deal fire. He has to find that sweet spot of brilliance and just keep it on at all times. I have seen no sign he can do it.

I think essentially all Dems will vote for Hillary, and I think she will appeal to the ultra-thin layer of cerebral cortex still present in the Republican party. I think she will pick up some GOP women, because GOP women will not turn down a chance to break the glass ceiling. I think Hillary's problem is independents. Our left wingers will come around.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. AlterNet

They must have ten unique viwers...

[Bitwit1234]

3. Don't you wish.......................

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I See The Author Of The Article Is Pimping The Universally Discredited Zomby Online Poll

DSB

[earthlover]

51. the zogby poll ( I guess you don't know enough about him to even spell his name?) is not universally

discredited except among Hillary supporters who don't like the results.

The Zogby online polling was used in the 06 congressional/senate elections and was only wrong in predicting the winner once, and that was within the margin of error.

Zogby was the first to predict such a major shift in 06 congressional elections.

Now, of course, some don't like the results. So they try to PRETEND that the methodology is universally discredited.

There is a cure for being universally discredited. If Zogby comes up with polling results that are favorable to Hillary, then of course it is the most respected poll of all!

I understand that there must be frustration in the Hillary Camp. They used to obsess about polls. Now they discredit polls. You'd think they were doing poorly in the polls!!!!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

70. It Was A Joke- "Zomby" -Don't You Get It

As for the credulity or incredulity of the ZOMBY ONLINE POLL gander:


http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=john_zogbys_creative_polls


http://www.pollster.com/blogs/zogby_internet_poll_trial_heat.php



http://www.cjr.org/politics/how_reliable_is_the_zogbyjourn.php


http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/11/28/95347/662

[DemocratSinceBirth]

71. My Bad

I found more criticism of the ZOMBY ONLINE POLL:


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/11/27/204423/12

[calteacherguy]

5. The reasons Obama beats Republican candidates that Hillary doesn't are simple.

1) People want change from "politics as usual"

2) People want an inspiring leader with vision

3) People want integrity in honesty brought back to America

[durrrty libby]

8. All empty rhetoric. Every bit of it Fools Gold

[calteacherguy]

23. We'll see if your opinion is shared by a majority of voters. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. I'm Disappointed That A Man Who Is Responsible For Educating Our Youth Is So Disingenuous

Here's a link to dozens of polls... Hillary Clinton is beating all her Rethuglican challengers:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

[mtnsnake]

10. Can you imagine what his "Show and Tell" sessions must be like?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. No

Please elaborate

[calteacherguy]

25. We don't do show and tell. nt

[mtnsnake]

36. Why not? Show & tell is important, man.What if someone brought you in a little Hillary doll to show?

You could tell the kids all about her and what a wonderful politician she is :evilgrin:

[calteacherguy]

63. LOL.

Good one. That's pretty funny.

But don't you think an Obama doll would be a lot more inspirational for the students?

[durrrty libby]

35. Empty paper bags?

[durrrty libby]

17. Sorry, I don't believe the "educating youth" part. On the internet

one can be anytring, eh?

As one of my favorite DUers (CPH) once said to a big braggart...

"Ya buddy, on the internet, we are all heroes"?:rofl:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. I'll Give Him The Benefit Of The Doubt

Lots of folks have internet personas that are different than their real life personas...

[calteacherguy]

27. I am a public school teacher. nt

[durrrty libby]

37. Graduating rates are are a national shame

[calteacherguy]

47. It's "graduation" rates. And yes, I agree. nt

[durrrty libby]

73. I should have known sarcasm would be lost on you without the logo

:eyes:

[earthlover]

54. is it necessary to flame calteacher? you owe him an apology

sometimes I think hillary supporters just like to throw mud

[oasis]

32. If Obama somehow gets into the WH, expect 0 for 3 from "The Great Pretender".

[earthlover]

55. Ah...name calling .....that is such a positive contribution to discourse...sarc

Isn't that the mud throwing that Hillary said she didn't like.

OOPS! She only doesn't like it if others do it!

[sniffa]

12. It should be common sense

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Or Fucking Nonsense

DSB

[sniffa]

14. don't be so bitter

truth hurts a lot.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Bitter About What

Sloppy social science... The author ignores the dozens of polls that indicate what he doesn't want to see and hangs his hat on the one poll with suspect methodology that shows what he wants to see... He would be laughed out of POS 101 at your garden variety community college...

[sniffa]

21. yeah, you seem even more bitter in this post

sorry

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. Try To Use Facts In Your Arguments

You're boring us to death with your bathetic observations...

Sorry...

[sniffa]

33. sorry

:hug:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. Now I Feel Bad

DSB

[shireen]

18. then why so many endorsements?

I don't get it ... she's got more endorsements than any other candidate. What are these people thinking? Even the few dems I like and respect, like Charlie Rangel and Wes Clark, have endorsed her. I find that really odd. It's as if the establishment is trying to "fix" the nomination in her favor, like she's the "chosen" one. Well, I didn't choose her. I haven't decided who I'll pick on primary day. But by the time the primaries get to Maryland, a few other states would have made that decision for me. This system really stinks. Primaries should be held the same day for all states.

Meanwhile, the front-runners are making themselves less and less appealing. I'm starting to take a second look at Biden and Dodd.

[vssmith]

30. Ask yourself this question

In your opinion, which candidate is the most qualified to be our next president? I don’t mean legally qualified, I mean the person who would best be able to lead the country in times of trial and tribulation--qualified with moxie, decisiveness and creative thinking. Feel free to eliminate immediately any Republicans.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. Most Experienced In Order

1) Biden 2) Richardson 3) Dodd 4) Clinton 5) Obama 6) Edwards 7) Kucinich

[Nedsdag]

82. I wouldn't rank Kucinich so low.

After all, he was mayor of Cleveland and has served in Congress since 1997.

[shireen]

72. i have high standards, and none of them meet it

It's sad that we have a political system that discourages the best people from running.
I haven't figured out yet who is best qualified, out of that bunch, to be president. But if I had to throw a list together right now, Clinton and Obama would be near the bottom. And that's why I don't understand all those Clinton endorsements.

And BTW, in politics, "most qualified" does not matter. The main criteria is "best financed" which is why we desperately need campaign reform.

[Texas_Kat]

20. INteresting that this guy is just now writing about numbers

from the "internet" zogby poll from almost 2 weeks ago.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

Real Clear Politics is keeping up with the latest.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. And He Ignores Every Other Published Poll

I would be ashamed to put my name on fallacious bullshit...I would be ashamed...

[Texas_Kat]

24. Alternet used to be better than that

This campaign has ruined some good news sources.

[laugle]

46. My sentiments exactly.........but this goes on a lot here. nt

[cali]

28. god, you can smell the author's stink of desperation

it's such nonsense. They're all electable. All you have to do is look at the pukes. The electable argument was bullshit in 2004 and it's even more bullshit now. Support the candidate that you want, and let things sugar off where they will.

[rhett o rick]

44. Sorry but electability isn't my main concern. I want a candidate that will support

the Constitution and rule of law. If they don't, I will not support them even against Big Gulie or Mit the Shit. The best of evils is a manipulation and I don't do that. If we can't have freedom then lets get ready to rumble. Give me friggin liberty or give me death. I stole that but altered it a little.

[laugle]

45. Hillary will win because she can kick-ass better than

any of them!!!!

She's tough as nails........you go girl and kick some republican ass!!

[earthlover]

58. Why hasn't she kicked Rep ass? She sure seems to try to kick Dems though

She is buddy-buddy with Murdoch. Voted with Bush on his Iraq War. Voted with Bush on Kyl-Lieberman. Voted with Bush on the bankruptcy bill. Hell, there are Republicans who have spoken more sharply against the War in Iraq and against Bush in general!

Hillary kicks Rep ass like a wet noodle wimp

[bagrman]

76. She's not qualified she voted for the Patriot Act twice.

[MonkeyFunk]

50. I really want her to win

so people like you will self-destruct here. The hateful, destructive dem-bashers like you. The ignorant, bile-stuffed my-candidate-at-all-costs mindless morons like you. The stupid, counter-productive, half-brain-dead people like you.

[sniffa]

53. outstanding reason to support someone

:thumbsup:

[MonkeyFunk]

90. I never said that's the reason I support her

it's just a fringe benefit.

[Occam Bandage]

60. I don't particularly want her to win.

However, I have to admit, watching the brains of the anti-Democrat factions on the left and right simultaneously explode in a glorious paroxysm of fury would indeed be satisfying.

[earthlover]

61. And I think some hope hillary will lose for the same reasons....

I do find it hillary-ous that you could be so bileful in your dem-bashing and in the same friggin breath complain about dem-bashing!

Pot. Meet. Kettle.

I have a suggestion: Why don't you tell us why Hillary should be elected. What does she have to offer that the other candidates don't?

It seems that everyone is noticing that the Hillary campaign has gone negative this past week. I enjoy a good debate, but this personal attack stuff is tiresome.

Anyone who thinks that the only ones who are negative are the Obama fans should read your post. You demonstrate clear as day how mean-spirited, demeaning, and hateful Hillary supporters can be. Not an effective strategy, I might add. Nor respectful for fellow Democrats.
Rove would love it for us Democrats to not disagree with each other but to do what you have done and go for the jugular.

[MonkeyFunk]

91. I, and others, have done so

many times. You just don't agree with us.

There are candidates I don't like and don't want to see elected, but I don't scour the internet to find negative articles to post about them here.

I can support my candidate just fine without feeling the need to destroy the others.

[loveangelc]

52. well

duh. i really dont understand some democrats who actually do not believe her nomination would ensure a republican victory.

[smalll]

59. Hillary the "least electable?" -- as per W.S.Churchill - "except for all the others." /nt

[Skip Intro]

62. So might Obama.

[Lord Helmet]

64. I think people are starting to realize that.

People like Bill but not Hillary so much.

[Quixote1818]

67. Good analysis

Too bad Bill was not Married to someone more like Molly Ivins or Stephanie Miller. That would be a perfect world.

[Carrieyazel]

66. Both HIllary and Obama are easy prey in a general election.

Frank Rich????? I know he wrote a decent book about the Shrub lies on Iraq, but this guy should go back to critiquing movies. There is no evidence that Repukes are afraid of Obama. Obama just as unelectable as Hillary, with different and similar vulnerabilites.

[durrrty libby]

85. Post 83 dispels your misinformation

[Perry Logan]

69. Y'all are scared shitless of Republicans.

[AndyTiedye]

81. The Republican Nominees Are Very Very Scary People

Y'all are scared shitless of Republicans.

After what they have done to the country in 7 years, we have every reason to be!

pResident Gouliani, pResident Huckabee, pResident Romney, pResident Thompson…

Damn right they scare me! :scared:


sElecting Republicans Since 2002

[Deja Q]

74. But, Hillary Clinton Might Be the Most Electable Republican

:hide:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

75. There was a time when I came here for reasoned discourse.

~

[bagrman]

77. Just more of the same. Corporatist.

[suston96]

83. Hillary least electable? Really?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/most_electable_democratic_candidate

Most Electable Democratic Candidate
73% of Democrats See Clinton as Electable, 66% Say the Same of Obama
Monday, December 03, 2007

Seventy-three percent (73%) of Democrats say that New York Senator Hillary Clinton is at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated by her party. That’s down eight from 81% a month ago and down two from 75% two months ago. Currently, 43% of Democrats believe she is Very Likely to win it all if nominated. No other candidate—Republican or Democrat—comes close to that figure.

Sixty-six percent (66%) of Democrats believe that Illinois Senator Barack Obama is at least somewhat likely to emerge victorious in the general election if nominated by his party. That figure is little changed from a month ago and includes 25% who believe he would be Very Likely to win the general election.
John Edwards lags slightly behind his competitors in this category—58% of Democrats think the former North Carolina Senator would be at least somewhat likely to win. Two months ago, 73% thought that Edwards would be at least somewhat likely to win. For Bill Richardson, the numbers are more bleak. Just 33% of Democrats believe he has a decent chance while 58% believe the New Mexico Governor would be unlikely to win.

These figures come as Clinton, Obama, and Edwards are locked in a very tight race in Iowa. Clinton still leads in national polls and in New Hampshire but her lead in both places is getting smaller.

Among all voters, including Republicans and those not affiliated with either major party, 60% believe that Clinton would be at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. Thirty-five percent (35%) say she would not be very likely to win. Six-out-of-ten Republicans see a Democratic victory as unlikely if Clinton is nominated while 56% of unaffiliateds say she is at least somewhat likely to win.

Fifty-six percent (56%) of all voters believe that Obama is at least somewhat likely to win. Forty-five percent (45%) say the same about Edwards.
In the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, Clinton remains the clear frontrunner with Obama in second place and Edwards in third.

[Carrieyazel]

87. Do the people who respond to these polls understand what electability is?? I doubt it.

What they're really saying is that Hillary has high name ID, so she's famous enough to get elected. Give me a break.

[suston96]

92. Do the people who respond to these polls understand what electability is??

No they don't. They are the stupid wing of the party. The really bright ones are over watching Oprah and expecting an expensive free prize.

[Kurovski]

88. First rule of election theft:

Keep the numbers close enough to steal.

I wonder if Rupert Murdoch knows that? Hmmm