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kos on Huckabee- very good read

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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 12:27 PM
Original message
kos on Huckabee- very good read
Giuliani's fast decline, Huckabee's rise
by kos
Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 09:03:25 AM PST

I alway feared Huckabee's potential, though was heartened by his utter inability to raise any money. Well, he's gotten a serious boost from the 1-2 punch of the YouTube debate and the Sex on the City scandal.

On 11/30, Rasmussen's tracking poll had Giuliani at 27%, 14% ahead of his nearest competitor. Today, he limps in at 20% after three consecutive days of losses. Meanwhile, Huckabee, at 13% on the 30th, is now at 17% and surging.

According to Rasmussen polling conducted 11/26-27 -- before Sex on the City -- already had Huckabee leading Iowa. (11/12 results in parenthesis.)

Huckabee 28 (16)
Romney 25 (29)
Giuliani 12 (15)
Thompson 11 (14)
Paul 5 (4)
McCain 4 (6)
Tancredo 4 (4)
Hunter 1 (2)



In addition, Huckabee was essentially tied for second in New Hampshire, again, in polling conducted before Sex on the City exploded on the media scene. (11/5 results in parenthesis.)

Romney 34 (32)
Giuliani 15 (17)
McCain 15 (16)
Huckabee 14 (10)
Paul 8 (4)
Thompson 3 (14)
Tancredo 1 (3)
Hunter 1 (2)



All of this, keep in mind, by a guy that has been utterly incompetent in raising money -- spending a grand total of $1.7 million as of the end of Q3 -- the least amount of any candidate in the race except for Alan Keyes and Mike Gravel. Talk about an object lesson about money in politics. His $2.35 million raised thus far is less than everyone except the two fringe candidates listed above, as well as Dennis Kucinich and Duncan Hunter. In other words, Huckabee has contender numbers (if not "frontrunner" ones) while his fundraising numbers hover in "fringe" territory. That's pretty amazing.

In comparison, on his side of the race, Romney has raised $63 million and spent almost $54 million of it, while Giuliani has raised $47 million and spent about $31 million of that.

That lack of money has allowed Huckabee to fly under the radar. That will now likely change. And he won't have to contend with just his opponents in the race. Expect the Club for Growth -- Huckabee's arch nemesis -- to go in big against Huckabee any moment now. Perhaps not in Iowa, but it would make sense for them to build a firewall against Huckabee in tax-adverse New Hampshire.

::
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/12/3/11468/3021
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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 12:32 PM
Response to Original message
1. Thanks cali!
I've been on the "watch out for this guy" bandwagon from day one. Appreciate the link.
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 12:36 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Me, too, I really think he's going to be the nominee
He's affable, religiously insane, and has a record of governor that doesn't include bankrupting his state. He's really the best they've got to offer this time.

He will be promised the moon and stars on his social issues and the #2 slot will go to a bloodless corporate thief, a Cheney II, who will run the economy the rest of the way into the ground and keep the wars going at the same time.

Unless the Democrats smarten up once a nominee is named and play to the party base, he might even get elected.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 12:46 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Well, if he is the candidate, it looks like there's plenty of dirt
Huckabee revealed an enduring weakness as glaring as that other Arkansas governor's fondness for women. Huckabee seems to love loot and has a dismissive attitude toward ethics, campaign finance rules and propriety in general. Since that first, failed campaign, the ethical questions have multiplied.

In the 1992 contest with Bumpers, Huckabee used campaign funds to pay himself as his own media consultant. Other payments went to the family babysitter.

In his successful 1994 run for lieutenant governor, he set up a nonprofit curtain known as Action America so he could give speeches for money without having to disclose the names of his benefactors. He failed to report that campaign travel payments were for the use of his own personal plane.

After he became governor in 1996, he raked in tens of thousands of dollars in gifts, including gifts from people he later appointed to prestigious state commissions.

In the governor's office, his grasp never exceeded his reach. Furniture he'd received to doll up his office was carted out with him when he left, after he'd crushed computer hard drives so nobody could ever get a peek behind the curtain of the Huckabee administration.

Until my paper, the Arkansas Times, blew the whistle, he converted a governor's mansion operating account into a personal expense account, claiming public money for a doghouse, dry-cleaning bills, panty hose and meals at Taco Bell. He tried to claim $70,000 in furnishings provided by a wealthy cotton grower for the private part of the residence as his own, until he learned ethics rules prevented it. When a disgruntled former employee disclosed memos revealing all this, the Huckabee camp shut her up by repeatedly suggesting she might be vulnerable to prosecution for theft because she'd shared documents generated by the state's highest official.

He ran the State Police airplane into the ground, many of the miles in pursuit of political ends. Inauguration funds were used to buy clothing for his wife. He once took control of the state Republican Party's campaign account -- then swore the account had been somebody else's responsibility when it ran afoul of federal election laws. He repeated the pattern when he claimed in a newspaper story that his staff controlled the account to stage his second inauguration. When I filed a formal ethics complaint over what appeared to be an improper appropriation of donated money, he told a different story, disavowing responsibility for the money. He thus avoided another punishment from an Ethics Commission, which had sanctioned him on five other occasions. He dodged nine other complaints (though none, despite his counter-complaints, was held to be frivolous). In one case, he was saved by the swing vote of a woman who left the chairmanship of the Ethics Commission days later to take a state job. She listed the governor as a reference on the job application. Finally, unbelievably, Huckabee once sued to overturn the ban on gifts to him.
http://www.salon.com/news/cookie756.html
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Jennifer C Donating Member (760 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 12:47 PM
Response to Original message
4. His potential is frightening
If Huckabee is the nominee, I think it's going to be tough.
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TwilightGardener Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 12:53 PM
Response to Original message
5. Huckabee has gotten more free press and air time than any other candidate, even
John McCain. He's on every Sunday show, every week. Why? Why are they pushing him so hard?
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 12:58 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. because the press is easily seduced
throw a little charm and folksiness their way, and you can have them trained in no time.
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TwilightGardener Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 01:08 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. I think it's more insidious than that. I think the press wants Rudy and Clinton--
what a battle royale that would be, and so good for selling papers and geting ratings. The press built Thompson up until he was Reagan, and then they tore him down--no one will ultimately be allowed to threaten Rudy. Same thing will happen with Hucky, because he's dirty--there will be a lot to tear him down with, but they are going to wait until he takes down Romney first. Rush Limbaugh, whom I obviously don't like but whom I believe is politically astute, is pushing this theory today.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 01:28 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. Do you honestly believe Rudy will survive his
scandals and the money hiding scheme? I don't. I think he's done, and there's no resurrecting him.
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TwilightGardener Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 01:34 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. I do. It all depends on the media. If they want him, they will snow the voters.
I read an article (can't remember where) that said R voters in NH don't care about this scandal. He's got more than a month to get through this, and he's a scrapper. He won't go down easy.
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calimary Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 01:44 PM
Response to Reply #6
12. That's exactly it. A little "aw-shucks" and they're completely hooked.
Disgusting and disgraceful.

Only now are his republi-CON opponents waking up to the threat he poses. Too much time's been lost already.

He scares the hell out of me, precisely BECAUSE people are so easily taken in by that "aw-shucks" schtick. But he's SO NIIIIIIIIIIIIIIICE! I just LIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIKE him.

People will be "going with their gut" again, and it will give us ALL indigestion. :scared:
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OHdem10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 01:02 PM
Response to Original message
7. Revenge of the Fundies. Huckabee gets the Conservative
Christian Vote for now. This gives the RR leverage in the party.

Monitor TV for a WHILE AND LISTEN carefully to more serious
Republicans--those who are serious players in Republican Party.

They are diplomatic re Huckabee. They all say the race is between
Romney and Rudy.

If Huckabee weakens Romeny this gives and opening for Rudy to move
in and take the nomination.

As one GOPer, put it Huckabee is running for VP. This is the leverage.

The race is beteen Rudy and Romney.



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Timmy5835 Donating Member (325 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-03-07 01:33 PM
Response to Original message
10. Please remember.......
He's pro Iraq War. 75% of the voting U.S. population is anti Iraq war. He's anti stem cell research and his is a Fundie, and 75% of his own state's GOP don't like him. In other words, he has NO chance.
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