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Edited on Sat Feb-21-04 11:04 PM by Feanorcurufinwe
By JOHN TIERNEY
Voters keep calling John Kerry the most electable candidate, the one most likely to defeat President Bush, and are quick to cite his many admirable and heroic qualities. But when they went to the polls in the Wisconsin primary last week, many seemed to have the same reservations about Mr. Kerry that Willy Loman had about his neighbor: he is liked, but not well liked. In Wisconsin, as in some earlier primaries, John Edwards rose in the polls as more voters saw him in action, and exit polls showed he was the first choice of voters looking for a candidate who "cares about people like me." His sunny disposition and charismatic performances led to an unexpectedly strong finish.
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If Mr. Edwards wins the charm contest, why is Mr. Kerry winning the primaries? Likability is not everything, especially in times of war. Richard Nixon proved that in 1968, when he defeated everyone's favorite uncle, Hubert Humphrey. Just as voters then worried about the Vietnam War and social unrest, today's voters are concerned about Iraq and terrorism, and they may prefer Mr. Kerry, a war hero, even if they don't particularly want to invite him for drinks. When Americans were asked to describe Mr. Kerry in a national poll last week by the Pew Research Center, two of the most common words of praise were "good" and "qualified," while two criticisms were "arrogant" and "phony." The strengths of his character and experience outweighed the objections to his personality, giving him an overall favorable-to-unfavorable rating of two to one. Mr. Edwards had the same favorable rating.
"Likability and caring about people have always been important factors, but this year, Democrats' main determinant seems to be the strength to go up against Bush," said Mandy Grunwald, a media consultant who worked for Senator Joseph I. Lieberman's campaign. "John Edwards is very likable and articulate and connects with people, and it's possible he can redefine what it takes to beat Bush, but so far voters have liked Kerry's swagger."
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But some critics have wondered whether over time Mr. Edwards will seem superficial and inexperienced, and whether voters will believe that a multimillionaire could really identify with working people. "People might start to see him as a touch too polished and smooth," said Andrew Kohut, the director of the Pew Research Center. "His larger problem is his lack of experience and his youthfulness, which is both an asset and a problem when people are looking for the steady hand of experience."
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/22/weekinreview/22TIER.html?ei=5062&en=4d1a90350a88ee4d&ex=1078030800&partner=GOOGLE&pagewanted=print&position= |
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