Polls: Youth Vote Shifting To Obama in Iowa

[ClarkUSA]

Yesterday Rasmussen posted his latest Iowa Poll with the following results. Results from the previous poll, on October 17, in parentheses:

Clinton: 29% (40%)
Obama: 38% (23%)
Edwards: 17% (15%)

Link: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/iowa/democratic_iowa_caucus

A poll of over 2,000 students at Iowa State University gives Obama an even larger edge: Obama holds a whopping 44% lead while Clinton and Edwards are
both below 15%. And just take a look at combined first and second choices:

Obama: 83%
Edwards: 40%
Clinton: 38%

Link: http://chronicle.com/blogs/election/1087/iowa-state-students-feel-the-love-for-barack-obama-and-ron-paul

Of course, none of us know who will show up on on the evening of Jan. 3, but if these polls are any indication, the voter demographic tide is further turning in
Obama's favor.

[orpupilofnature57]

1. I wonder how many would turn out for Al?

[Adelante]

2. That's great news

Thanks for posting it.

[EV_Ares]

5. Yeah, agree, great news.

[Colobo]

3. Good stuff!

[blm]

4. This is a good sign for Obama supporters (not fully there yet myself)

What was under-reported in 2004 was that the college demographics broke in Kerry's favor in Iowa.

The media had distorted the numbers on the ground for so long in that primary that they really should have lost their jobs - but instead, they successfully blamed Dean by creating and hyping the scream lie.

[ClarkUSA]

7. Kerry won the youth vote in 2004 and the MSM ignored it and pushed the "moral values" BS

The netroots won't let the MSM ignore anything like that again in 2008. We're much stronger as a voice now than in 2004.

And, hopefully, Obama will do replicate Kerry's 2004 demographic victory - and more - in 2008. ;-)

[blm]

11. Yeah - we also trust that Dean is securing the election process that McAuliffe ignored.

Had McAuliffe done his job we'd be seeing the last of the troops brought home from Iraq by now because the UN succeeded in securing Iraq for its elected government.

[ClarkUSA]

13. Instead McAuliffe saddled us with the frontloaded primary with help from his buddy Carville

I hope Dean stays a second term as DNC chairman. He's brought integrity back to the institution and has become the winningest chairman in a long time.
By the way, do you think Kerry would ever endorse Hillary after all her and Bill's backstabbing?

[blm]

14. I don't think so.

I know his personal body guard has been with Obama for some time now, and so are some of Kerry's key moneymen. But, most are waiting for Kerry to go public. The fact that more didn't jump to Hillary long ago is very telling. It's been a year since Kerry decided not to run. If they were in it just for influence they would have jumped to Hillary long ago when she was perceived as the certain nominee with ALL the power in the party.

[EV_Ares]

6. It just keeps getting better and better. That is the important thing, a

little better each day. I think what is happening is is msg is getting out better, he doesn't have the baggage Hillary is carrying with her and a better message.

[Imagevision]

8. Wonder which way the baby boomers will go? Obama still makes more sense then Hillary

[snowbear]

12. Should be interesting to see..

If Iowa goes as it did in '04, I say they throw a wrench into the whole deal and come out declaring Richardson or Biden the winner!


Anything can happen!

[PATRICK]

9. We don't get enough

actual news about Iowa, even on the Iowa state forum. Didn't Dean get a lot of- if not students- enthusiastic neophytes who did not get numbers or prepared presence in the caucuses? What past demographics have really counted? The last and most successful neophyte crusade was I think McGovern's workers who HAD experience from 1968 and had the advantages of new rules given to them by the 1968 Convention along with the collapse of the centrist Dems in the defeat of Humphrey.

All of this is very interesting. The stupidity or willful blindness of the media also seems to leave all of us unable to do more than guess at what is going on. We'll feel a lot smarter after the post mortem next month. Interesting things are happening and the situation is very fluid.

If I were to keep guessing and look good in hindsight I would gamble on saying which candidate had become the popular winner of the iowan commitments OR which had the better strategies. Right now I suspect, but cannot get info enough to make a full case, that Edwards is far and away the better strategist. If I could a handle on the popularity thing I could get rich on a prognostication. Hillary's biggest weakness if not being the second choice among those very close to her base. Both Hillary and Obama are locked in a dangerous stranglehold of sorts that they both might want to back away from and can't, might even want to downplay Iowa if they are not going to win- but can't. They could be locked in a trap, in effect, which is the second best thing outside of one crumbling completely that edwards can hope for.

If he HAD won without much drama or contest he would have had the whole long road to hoe. This has all given him a megaphone and the punch he will need. It has also tempted Obama into doing what he needs to do to breakout and brought Hillary out of her actual organizational inevitability cakewalk into a world of necessary risk. All of this is good to hone the strength of our eventual candidate, I hope, and at least shake it a bit loose from party kingmakers.

[earthlover]

10. It seems as if Obama is making gains, one after another.

I don't think there is much doubt that IF....a big IF....things continue to trend the way things have in recent days for the next month, Obama will be in control in Iowa.

While the youth vote a great deal of significance this time, however, because many of them will be at home for the holidays when the caucuses happen, and of course there are no absentee votes in caucuses, so many will not be there. Also, this is an age group that never has shown good voter turnout.

At any rate, this is still good news for Obama. If he can harness their youthful exuberance and the campaign can marshall lots of them to do volunteering, this will definately help his campaign.

I don't think we can underestimate the effect of volunteering in a race such as this.