11% of 2000 Bush voters say they will vote for the Democratic nominee

[_Jumper_]

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/22/politics/campaign/22VOTE.html

<A nationwide CBS News poll released Feb. 16 found that 11 percent of people who voted for Mr. Bush in 2000 now say they will vote for the Democratic candidate this fall. But there was some falloff among those who voted against him as well. Five percent of people who said they voted for Mr. Gore in 2000 say this time they will back Mr. Bush.

On individual issues, the poll found some discontent among Republicans but substantial discontent among independents. For instance, on handling the nation's economy, 19 percent of Republicans and 56 percent of independents said they disapproved of the job Mr. Bush was doing.

"As the president's job rating has fallen, his Democratic supporters have pulled away first, then the independents and now we're starting to see a bit of erosion among the Republicans, who used to support him pretty unanimously," said Evans Witt, the chief executive of Princeton Survey Research Associates. "If 10 to 15 percent of Republicans do not support him anymore, that is not trivial for Bush's re-election.">

[slinkerwink]

1. so how many votes does 11% that gets the Dem nominee?

[Zynx]

3. If that 11% figure is correct, that would be about 5 million votes.

However, subtract the 5% of Gore voters who say they will vote for Bush which is about 2.5 million and you get a net swing of 2.5 million.

[Cocoa]

6. I bet those Gore voters are southerners

states that aren't in play anyway.

[Zynx]

7. VA, TN, AR, LA, and FL are certainly in play.

Don't write them off.

[lcordero]

10. FL isn't in play for obvious reasons

I think the Dems may stand a better chance in WV and OH.

[TruthIsAll]

19. FL goes DEM by 200,000, unless Bush can cheat again..

...

[lcordero]

20. think again

BBV + "absentee ballots" = Repuke "win"

[Renew Deal]

14. Also WV, NV, OH and NH

[Maddy McCall]

16. You are wrong...

Southern Democrats are DIE-HARD Democrats. They will support this party through thick and thin.

But, in your mind, what would make Southern Democrats decide NOT to support the party?

Southern Democrats HATE Bush. Come to some of my Dem. organizational meetings with me sometime. You'll see.

[0rganism]

18. what would make Southern Democrats decide NOT to support the party?

Zell Miller proves there's at least one prominent Democrat for bush.

[Maddy McCall]

21. Anecdotal...

I am talking about your everyday, garden variety Southern Democrats.

I love how you guys LOVE to throw Zell up at Southerners. He is an aberration.

[jeter]

22. Hey wait a minute

11% take away 5% is 6%.

That's a gain of 6% for us and a loss of 6% for Bush. Or a 12% differential.

Winning by 12% sounds good to me.

[_Jumper_]

4. I'm not sure

What percentage of voters are registered Republicans? The article says that only 5% of Gore voters are defecting so we will probably see a significant net gain.

[Zynx]

5. It's millions. Let's just put it that way.

Unless Bush pulls a miracle out of his ass, this could be a direction changing election. The conservatives have been on the ascent for 34 years which is about as long as political cycles last in this country. I believe we are seeing the end of that.

[ablbodyed]

13. The cons. will NEVER....

give up power. They've been scheming and planning for dacades, and I'm afraid that they have all contingencies covered. There's too many bullies in the mob. I wish I weren't so pessimistic, but I've seen this coming for about 20 years.

[mot78]

2. Wonder where Zell Miller and Ed Koch found that 5%

[rpf113]

23. Ed Koch went Republican?

When did that happen?

[DFLer4edu]

8. If it happens, I'll be thrilled!

[Zynx]

9. If it happens, we'll win in a big way.

[0rganism]

11. This is a net swing of 12% for the Dems against bush

It could account for some of the poll results we've been seeing lately. And I betcha it has coattails. (Suuuhweeeeeet!)

[lazarus]

12. What I want to know

Is what brain dead morons supported Gore in 2000 but are going to vote for Bush this year?

Who are these people? :shrug:

[_Jumper_]

15. The Dems that watch Faux News

n/t

[TruthIsAll]

17. What this means in numbers: Dem 53.2%, Bush 46.8%

<A nationwide CBS News poll released Feb. 16 found that 11 percent of people who voted for Mr. Bush in 2000 now say they will vote for the Democratic candidate this fall. But there was some falloff among those who voted against him as well. Five percent of people who said they voted for Mr. Gore in 2000 say this time they will back Mr. Bush.

I don't believe 5% of Gore voters will end up voting for Bush. Maybe 2% will.
And we may well see 15% of Bush voters go Dem.

But assuming they switch as per the poll,
11% of 50.5 million = 5.555 million Bush votes to Dem
5% of 51 million = 2.55 million Dem votes to Bush

Thats a net switch of 6% to the Dem

Therefore,
Dem votes =51.0+ 5.555 - 2.55 = 54.005 = 53.2%
Bush votes =50.5+ 2.55 - 5.555 = 47.495 = 46.8%

That puts it near a landslide...

[rpf113]

24. I don't know...

Those numbers seem too rosy to be true....
But if they are true, hallelujah.

Also we should start sending this link to all of our ultraconservative, evangelical relatives:

http://www.constitutionparty.com/news.php?aid=65

Right wing defections to this party could be great for us.