|
Now that we have three or four separate polls showing Obama beating Hillary, or at least tied with her in Iowa, I think it's safe now to call the Obama surge in Iowa real. He is also gaining on Hillary in New Hampshire which portends well for his chances in the race AFTER the Iowa caucuses.
There is another point which should concern Hillary Clinton in Iowa though. According to recent surveys, she is third among the top three candidates for second place support. So it would seem that, from my standpoint, she has maxed out her support in the state. Thus, it is my opinion, that her numbers in the state have stagnated just as Obama's support is on the rise. Since Obama already leads her there, I believe he will win the Iowa caucus. In fact, I believe he may win it convincingly (by 10 points or more).
This leads to what will happen in the days AFTER the Iowa caucuses.
There are two groups that I believe will go heavily for Obama in these days: African Americans and current supporters of John Edwards.
If Edwards pulls out of the race after he loses in Iowa, I believe that much of his support will go to Obama. Especially so if he should endorse him. Depending on which poll you read, Edwards currently enjoys about 15% national support on average. Now I don't expect Obama to get the whole 15%, but I think it's reasonable to say that he may come away with 10% or more. This could prove EXTREMELY helpful in other early states like New Hampshire and South Carolina where polls show the race is beginning to tighten as well. If you look at the new New Hampshire poll, for example, combining Edwards' and Obama's numbers puts the latter ahead of Hillary. This doesn't even include the support of INDEPENDENTS who are allowed to participate in the New Hampshire primary. Hillary's numbers are anemic among independents, and polls already show Obama doing far better than she does among them. Let's not forget the role independents played in pushing a marginal 2 or 3 point John McCain lead in 2000 into a 19-point victory. Do not underestimate this factor. These two things alone could give Obama a twenty point victory over Hillary only one week after she loses the Iowa caucus.
Then the support that leaks away from her will become a torrent. With only a couple of weeks to recover before the SUPER DUPER PRIMARY on February 5th, and with Obama matching Clinton in fund raising, I think that might spell DOOM for her candidacy. Especially with an increasingly hostile and skeptical press, who have grown wary of her status as front runner and may wish to throw a wrench into her coronation by becoming more hostile and skeptical than they already have been. (I will concede this point to Clinton supporters. The press' coverage of Obama has been, by and large, more positive than it has been of Clinton's. But I believe she has mostly herself to blame for this for being so standoffish, aloof and unavailable to them).
The second group that I think Hillary Clinton has to become wary of are African Americans. Currently polls show her leading Obama among this important Democratic constituency. But let's be honest here. The reason for this has FAR MORE to do with her husband's popularity with this demographic than anything she has ever done. This is probably where the Clinton brand name is most helpful to her. But let us not forget the obvious: Obama is himself an African American. If Obama should come out of those early primaries with all the momentum, I can not fathom that African Americans would give up the opportunity to support the first black man to be nominated by either major party, and the first to have a credible chance at winning the Presidency. Also, don't underestimate the role Oprah Winfrey will play in "bringing home" professional and/or older African American women when she stumps for him in a few weeks. These groups are, in large part, supporting Hillary Clinton so there will be no "preaching to the choir" going on. Her presence alone will sway Clinton supporters into the Obama camp.
African Americans currently make up about 15 to 17% of the total Democratic voting base. In the south, they represent as much as 50% or higher of the Democratic vote. At present, polls show Hillary leading this group with 43% to Obama's 33%. But before you begin crowing about her inevitability Clinton supporters, keep in mind what I wrote above. If Hillary were to lose HALF of her African American support to Obama it would be a disaster. Half of that support would represent about 5% of her total vote. This would bring on a swing of 10% in favor of Obama (Hillary losing 5% and Obama gaining it). Where national polls currently show Obama trailing Hillary by 12% to 20% nationally, he would make up more than HALF of that number by this swing alone. That doesn't even include my STRONG BELIEF that many people are only "parking" their vote with her. That if her candidacy doesn't look as "inevitable" as it once did, she could lose A LOT more support than just the African Americans and Obama will gain far more than Edwards' supporters and African Americans "coming home."
One final point, don't underestimate national polls against the Republicans. At the present time, the bogus Zogby poll notwithstanding, Hillary does as well as the other candidates against the top and middle-tier Republican candidates. But if Obama beats Hillary Clinton don't be surprised to see a national surge in his favor, much like there was for John Kerry after he won the Iowa caucus in 2004. Independents might flock to Obama, even Republicans may (I have seen polls showing 20% of Republicans willing to support him), just for the fact that Barrack Obama defeated the much-hated Hillary Clinton. Nothing says winner more than winning. If Obama comes away with a 20 point lead in the national race against the Republicans (ENTIRELY POSSIBLE), it would make Hillary's paltry 4 or 5 point leads look ridiculous by comparison. Then another cry of "inevitable" would begin, and those making that cry won't be talking about Hillary Clinton.
If you put it all together, I think Obama finds himself in a very favorable position to knock off the front runner. And remember this, the media --- already wary of Clinton --- love the David against Goliath story. They always route for David.
So for those of you who don't think Iowa matters, especially you Clinton supporters who are already adjusting expectations for a coming defeat by your candidate, I say heed my words: Iowa matters a great deal.
It matters FAR MORE than any national poll you put up here on a daily basis.
|
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
