IA POLL: Obama 27% (+6), Hillary 25% (-2), Edwards 23% (+3)

[jefferson_dem]

Iowa

Likely Democratic Caucus Goers

Nov 10-14 Nov 26-29

Biden 5% 8%
Clinton 27% 25%
Dodd 3% 3%
Edwards 20% 23%
Gravel - -
Kucinich 2% 2%
Obama 21% 27%
Richardson 12% 4%
Undecided 10% 8%

In Iowa, Hillary Clinton has dropped 10 percentage points among women since the October 26-29 survey.

33% of likely caucus participants are undecided (8%) or say that they could switch candidates between now and January 3 (25%).
80% of those saying they support Clinton say their support is definite.
57% of those saying they support Edwards say their support is definite.
75% of those saying they support Obama say their support is definite.
Among men, Clinton is at 22%, Edwards 22%, and Obama 30%.
Among women, Clinton is at 28%, Edwards 24%, and Obama 25%.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/iadem8-713.html

[DS1]

1. YAY!

FUCK OFF, HILLARY! You're nothing but a poison pill for the party

[tired_old_fireman]

6. Nothing but a poison pill?

That's totally over the top and wrong.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. "A Tale Told By An Idiot...Sound And Fury Signifying Nothing."

DSB

[DS1]

17. how clever of you

_|_

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Your Welcome

And back at ya with whatever your cryptic smilie means...

[MNDemNY]

19. Gobama?

:P

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Do You Know What His Little _I_ Means?

DSB

[MNDemNY]

23. He's giving you the "finger".

Some Obama fans here are very rude.

[MNDemNY]

20. Too damn bad, go vote for Paul.

[saltpoint]

2. Shoot. Those Iowa Democrats are having all the fun.

I'm excited by the nomination race there, but kinda happily jealous of the voters who get first-ups.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. losers: Clinton, Richardson Winners: Obama, Biden

The Biden and Richardson moves are a big deal.

[SaveElmer]

4. Please let Biden overtake Edwards...

If Edwards was the nominee I think I would vomit in my mouth a bit...

[youthere]

7. I don't know SaveElmer...

I think Biden will do better than expected ..but Edwards has an awful lot of support here in Iowa.

[superkia]

41. I think they both have the same problem with getting elected...

they sounded just like Bush, Cheney, Powell, Rumsfeld and Clinton back in 2002 leading us into an illegal war. They all have an agenda that doesn't represent the average American, they all support the elite's agenda. Heres a link to Edwards trying to sell us the illegal war. If Americans cared enough about their children's future, they would research the facts before making their primary vote. The informations out there and most of the candidates looked at the fact that there was NO evidence and for some reason? They chose to push for the war and sell it to the American people and it worked. Most American don't hold those people accountable for the thousands of lives lost, they choose to ignore it and blame Bush for everything. To ignore the facts out there would be just disastrous for our country.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HY6BZgkI0kI

[jefferson_dem]

5. Richardson is tanking in this poll - Down 8 points in two weeks.

Ouch.

Biden has nearly doubled his support...and is close to double digits. Go Joe!

[Tellurian]

8. Too Early:

Read the fine print:

* 33% of likely caucus participants are undecided (8%) or say that they could switch candidates between now and January 3 (25%).
* 80% of those saying they support Clinton say their support is definite.
* 57% of those saying they support Edwards say their support is definite.
* 75% of those saying they support Obama say their support is definite.
* Among men, Clinton is at 22%, Edwards 22%, and Obama 30%.
* Among women, Clinton is at 28%, Edwards 24%, and Obama 25%.

[youthere]

11. It sounds as though Clinton's numbers...

can only improve at caucus time.

[jefferson_dem]

13. Thanks for highlighting those numbers for women.

I'm also surprised that Hillary is just barely leading (or perhaps it's a statistical tie) for that demographic.

Why do you think Iowa women are starting to reject her?

[CoffeeCat]

28. Why Hillary is tanking in Iowa...

When her campaign planted that question at her Grinnell College speech,
the debacle was covered extensively in Iowa media. I'm not sure
if the coverage outside of Iowa was as extensive, but it was a story
that played out for several days here.

Iowans are really proud of being "first" and those who participate
in the caucuses love that we can dialogue with most of the candidates.
The majority of the candidates--the ones who will do well in Iowa--get
down on the ground and speak with Iowans at picnics, bbqs, and in gatherings
in living rooms and community centers.

Going to the bigger speeches is nice, but the smaller gatherings mean more
and those events are the ones that garner passion and support for candidates.
If there is a bigger speech--we expect that the candidates hang around and
talk--answer questions and engage with us. It's a small enough state and
we're lucky to get this one-on-one with the candidates.

So, the expectations of HONESTY and AUTHENTICITY are extremely high in Iowa.
Hillary is not running this kind of campaign in Iowa. She seems to be following
some kind of closed, Rovian model--big, canned speeches--and even going so
far as planting questions.

When Hillary planted that question---and when large, impersaonl appearances dominate
her schedule, she appears fake and over managed--inaccessible. This just
doesn't translate well in Iowa.

Conversely---most of the other candidates are in the crowds, answering the
tough questions and meeting small groups.

Hillary may get more press for her bigger events in Iowa--but her poll numbers
in Iowa indicate that she's losing support in Iowa--while Obama, Biden and Edwards
are gaining. I've paid attention to where these candidates appear and all of the
candidates who are improving in Iowa are quietly meeting with small groups all
over the state. Edwards is blanketing the state and meeting with small groups, but
you don't hear much about it because sometimes these meetings only involve 25 people.
However, those are the people who attend the caucuses and those people will be
profoundly impacted by their time spent with the candidate.

I know that Obama and Biden are also engaging in this type of campaigning as well.

That's how you win Iowa.

[gateley]

36. Very interesting look into Iowa politics for us outsiders -- thanks! nt

[Renew Deal]

29. Absolutely

It's way to early to be predictive. It's still fun for the DU masses though. ;)

[youthere]

9. I'm thrilled for Joe...

but wondering what's up with Richardson? Do you think it's his poor debate performance? I think Richardson is a good man.

[jefferson_dem]

14. Good man. Not presidential timber in my view.

n/t

[MNDemNY]

21. And BHO is? LOL

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[jefferson_dem]

27. Do you *ever* have anything constructive to add?

If so, I would love to hear it.

[MNDemNY]

30. Only that BHO can not win the GE.

Ask Mr. Ford of Tennessee.
(and your constant BHO tripe is tiring.)

[jefferson_dem]

32. That's all you have -- Obama can't win the GE because he's black?

And you are offended that some of us here happen to promote the Democrat we think is our best candidate?

Oh, man! Good luck with that.

[MNDemNY]

33. NO, because so many

of our fellow Americans are closet racists and the "polls" tend to hide this. Many idiots in this country will voice support for him, then not pull the lever for him when it counts. The Ford race in Tenn. is only one of the latest examples of this "phenomenon" in recent history. This is an UNFORTUNATE fact that faces the Dems. should we nominate BHO.
(as a side, note the yellow dog. I will support, with vigor, the Dem. nominee.)

[MNDemNY]

34. And your "support" = bash Hillary ,etal. That all YOU got?

[gateley]

37. I've heard Richardson is really good in a smaller, personal setting which we're

learning is key in Iowa.

I feel bad for him not coming across better during the debates. People often say that Governors - not Senators - become President, but being in the Senate sure gives you better training for a debate type venue.

I was just thinking - if I had to participate in one of those debates I'd probably open my mouth to speak and just burst into tears. It must be daunting.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Richardson's And Biden's Numbers Are Reversed In The Rasmussen Poll

Make out of it what you want...

[gateley]

39. Well I don't like hearing that, obviously. But if that's accurate we need to be aware. Thanks. nt

[Jennifer C]

25. Biden = Impressive

His support is definitely growing.

I'm very pleased to see him almost at double digits.

[Renew Deal]

26. Richardson should just drop out.

I like the guy, but I honestly don't know anyone who supports him. He has 0 advocacy on DU as well (not that it's an indicator).

[Carrieyazel]

38. No he shouldn't. This poll is wrong.

[slick8790]

42. I like how you used evidence to back up your assertion.

:sarcasm:

[faithfulcitizen]

31. That's what I saw 1st too. Richardson down, Biden up...come on double digits!

I do like Richardson, but no longer think he's pres. material. I think if he and Dodd dropped, BIden *might* have a chance. It's only a 3% jump, but hey it's something! :woohoo:

[RDANGELO]

15. That's two out of the last three Iowa polls showing Obama

leading in Iowa. All three of them have him surging.

[alteredstate]

16. k & r

[TeamJordan23]

24. Great News!!! nm

[TheWraith]

35. Damn. I thought that the people arguing Clinton could come in third were cracked...

But it's now an actual possibility. I'll say this--whoever comes in third, I suspect that it'll be the end of their presidential campaign, whether they accept it or not.

Biden's rising also, albeit only from 5 to 8, and Richardson has tanked, going from 12 to 4.

[AtomicKitten]

40. Happy, happy.

[jillan]

43. Biden is up to 8% - that is very exciting!

I know in comparison to the top tier, it is small peanuts BUT for Biden, that is great :)

[Think82]

44. Biden is playing this campaign great. Slow and steady wins the race.