I am predicting a strong Edwards surge in Iowa as people start taking a closer look

[Quixote1818]

at the candidates. Edwards and Kucinich are the two talking about cleaning up corruption and special interest in Washington and Edwards has been fighting these ass holes all his life. These are the things people care about and I think it will start paying dividends when people start solidifying their choices. He has the best Health Care plan and has done the best job laying out policy and most issues.

I have been holding out deciding on a candidate but have found myself moving solidly into Edwards camp as I have looked closer at everyone. I think if people look close they will see that Edwards is talking about the important things and has done his homework on the issues. He is talking about and writing policy on the things that are important to me.

I like Obama and Biden too but will likely vote for Edwards if he is still in the race when I vote here in New Mexico.

[denem]

1. It's on.

Unless wyldwolf has some updated information, I am going with Edwards panache for retail politics.

[Tellurian]

2. Nope, he had his 15 minutes...and blew it on Negative attacks on Hillary..

the equivalent of shooting oneself in the foot. The Republican candidates are turning up the heat on Edwards. What does he do..He puts out a video in response to an attack.. Edwards is not a strong contender when he responds hiding behind a video.

[Adelante]

6. I saw a video this morning

I wish I could remember what site it was on, but I don't. In it, Edwards is at a town hall, it looked like, and he is basically calling Clinton and Obama childish for their attacks on each other, the American people don't want to hear this from presidential candidates, blah blah. I was laughing.

[denem]

10. I am not looking for an Edwards win, but I expect it..

Leaving aside the childishness, I have to ask though, when was the last Presidential election decided on rage: 1932, 1952? FDR and Ike weren't exactly bleak.

[Adelante]

12. Edwards has been running negative most of the year

He's switching mode right now.

[Tellurian]

13. I agree, Edwards just on KO..not very presidential at all!

All hunched over, scared half to death KO was going to grill him on the Romney comment.

He looked like the kid who got caught with his hand in the cookie jar.

[Lex]

23. LOL! That is too funny.

And of course, wrong.

[Adelante]

28. I found it

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/video/2007/11/28/VI2007112801169.html

This is a reversion to Edwards 2004 where he presents himself as the positive alternative.

[Donnachaidh]

41. better open a window to let some of the smoke out of your house

Because whatever it is you were smoking while Countdown was on is making you very VERY silly. :rofl:

[The Traveler]

45. Yer being sarcastic, right?

Or were we watching two different shows?

[DaLittle Kitty]

50. AGAIN, Since When Is Pointing Out FACTS About Your Opponent

being negative?

It is like the TYPICAL Republican line of attack when one of theirs gets caught holding the bag on one thing or another... Just ATTACK THE MESSENGER. The Clinton's definitely have some legitimate "BAGGAGE" THEY CARRY. The behavior of the Clintons is certainly suspect in that they attempt to portray Hillary as being ALL things to ALL people.

When ANY candidate engages in what has been characterized as "double-talk," they invite exposure by their fellow competitors, as well as closer scrutiny that likely will reward the scrutinizers with further potential caveats ripe for further exposure.


Issues of contradiction regarding a candidates public statements are entirely fair by ANY standard, and are the fault of no one, except the candidate who has chosen to make such contradictory statements.

Taking a principled stand and letting the chips fall where they may is utterly foreign to Hillary. I urge people to check out Charles Krauthammer's endorsement of Hillary published nationwide several weeks ago entitled "The Great Navigator." If one truly wants to facilitate change that benefits the ordinary working American, an honest broker cannot ignore the points made by Mr. Krauthammer. (Will post link.)

Mind you Krauthammer endorses Hillary as not only the easiest opponent for the Republican nominee from a competitive standpoint, but in the event a Democratic win takes place, people of "his ilk could live with her as President, though they would never vote for her."

We as Democrats MUST NOT TAKE ON THE MANTLE AS KEEPERS OF FANTASYLAND. The Primary should not be manipulated and should be allowed to play out so that we have as our candidate the strongest proponent of values that we the people who make this country function on the ground EVERYDAY share mutually. B-)

Our Strongest candidate will not be anyone who cannot keep their facts/position "STRAIGHT" from one city/state/event to another! :think:

[earthlover]

37. Lots of negative attacks coming from the Hillary crowd....pot, meet kettle!

In fact Hillary is again on the attack. She did that way back in july. And the hillary crowd were to busy joining in the pile-on on obama that they didn't even notice they were being negative. So now they try to play innocent. Or maybe hope nobody will notice.

I think the overwhelming lesson is: if you don't go along with the Hillary machine, you are negative. If you attack hillary's opponents you are not being negative. In fact, the very fact that they exist at all shows beyond doubt that they are "hillary haters"

This is getting fun, as the inevitable dream has gone south....

[Donnachaidh]

40. sounding a wee bit shrill

15 minutes are up? Really? Is that why Edwards has been on Countdown so much lately? It's truly amazing how screechy Hillbots get whenever he gets nationwide coverage. :rofl:

[Hieronymus]

46. Sadly, Hillary supporters can't take the heat of an election.

[rndmprsn]

3. edwards will surge in the last couple weeks...

and pull an upset win in Iowa imho.

[Tellurian]

14. Never happen..Edwards has all but sealed his fate as an obnoxious

boring politician! If people were wondering what he was really like...now they know. He's a petty, non-visionary , coffee clutch partisan ready to tear down his own party to win. No one I know would vote for his foolish antics.

[robinlynne]

21. Sounds like Hillary you are describing there: obnoxious, boring, petty, non-visionary,

partisan (for the other side, noone I know will vote for her...yep. it fits.

[Tellurian]

24. ***boring***

[earthlover]

38. right on!

[MGKrebs]

4. You have an appropriate screen name.

I just wanted to say that. :7

[bigdarryl]

5. MY PREDICTIONS on Iowa

EDWARDS 38.7 OBAMA 37.9 CLINTON 32.5 final numbers

[denem]

7. That's abiout right - more than 100%

you're such a card, darryl.

[PresidentObama]

8. LOL!!

[sweetladybug]

11. I'm hoping and praying that Al Gore gets into the race, BUT

if he doesn't, I'm leaning towards Edwards also

[ChiciB1]

32. Getting Al Gore Giving Him His Support Will Be Such A Feather In His

cap. I don't have any real information on this, but I "think" Gore may do it! Keeping my fingers crossed!

[robinlynne]

22. How funny!

[earthlover]

39. Mine

Obama 35
Edwards 30
Hillary 24

Media reaction: Hillary still standing means this is a victory for hillary. Neither Obama nor Edwards able to deliver a knock out blow. All the experts agree that Hillary was trying to prevent coming in 6th place, and by the looks of it, she did what she needed to do and surpassed this goal with flying colors. Hillary gains momentum going into NH.

[IowaGuy]

48. 38.7+37.9+32.5 = 109,1

Hey guy...this is Iowa...not Ohio or Florida...we got a decent educational system and most of us can actually count.

just jackin' with ya....I do have to concur with your assesment being a distinct possibility from a ratio perspective.

I've been out doin' a lot of canvassing and it seems to me that Hill's numbers are real soft. Both Biden & Richardson are movin up.
Edwards people will show up - he is solidly in the mid to high 20's. Obama actually is the biggest question mark in my mind. I am canvassing for him and you can't really put his supporters in a box like you can Clintons and Edwards. Clinton supporters largely white women - a lot of them single 35-55, it's almost spooky how so many fit that profile. This demographic is ususlly pretty soft as far as actually ever showing up on caucus night. Edwards has white married couples 35-50, and a good showing among older people also. Most are previous caucus goers and you can bank they will show up. Obama supporters are all over the map, young, old married single, recent immigrants, white, black, gay, a significant number from the Bosnian community in the Des Moines area, he's got the Italian community pretty good, surprisingly. The down side is a significant number of his supporters are younger and first timer caucus goers...again, typically it's tuff to count on these voters to show up. If they do Obama will squeak out over Edwards. I wouldnt be surprised if Hill actually ends up sweating to just not finish fourth. Biden or Richardson are getting a lot of late breakers, she may come out of Iowa pretty bloody and broken.

[geek tragedy]

9. Obama is also talking about cleaning up government.

And, unlike Edwards and Kucinich, he actually has a track record of doing it instead of just talking about it.

[Tellurian]

15. Coming from the most corrupt state in the Union...hard to believe..

[GreenArrow]

16. Obama's from Louisiana?

?

[Tellurian]

17. The home town of Al Capone?

and a Cheney relative...:-)

[Beaverhausen]

18. Oh now you are just cracking me up

blaming Obama for Cheney AND Al Capone! I want some of what you are smoking! :rofl:

[geek tragedy]

33. There are times I'm happy for the Ignore

feature, and then there are times I'm really, really happy for the Ignore feature.

[Armstead]

19. Clinton -- Illinois, Arkansas and New York

A trifecta of corrupt states

[Munch]

42. Reflections

Obama may talk about cleaning up government...

but less than two years ago, he endorsed Todd Stroger, Cook County Board President, whose only qualification for the job was nepotism.

Obama and Dick Durbin -- our illustrious delegation to the U.S. Senate -- appeared on television together, getting out the vote for the regular Cook County Democratic machine. Like Tweedledum and Tweedledee. And what has Stroger done since his election? Decimated our county health care system, slashed the budgets of dedicated practitioners while promoting cronies and relatives to high office and attempting to pass a record tax increase in support of all this.

Obama is way cozy with the powers that be, the establishment, the political operatives. Long ago I stopped thinking of him as a reform candidate. It was his endorsement of Todd Stroger that sullied the image -- an attempt to gain votes in the black community that did not quite work. African Americans, as a group, still like Hillary better.

Coming from the left, I don't see much to choose between Clinton and Obama. Would not be surprised if they ran together. The Democratic Party has no viable left wing.

Contrariwise, if it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; but as it isn't, it ain't. That's logic.

And that's politics! Watched John Edwards on Charlie Rose -- still gathering my impressions. Serious and focused and intense, all that but lacking... not credibility but a sense of humor and accessiblity. Has anyone else noticed? This is where the comparisons with Kennedy and Clinton break down. JFK in particular had a keen wit -- and Bill Clinton an affability that connects him immediately with almost anyone. Edwards is 100 percent spot-on message but without that vital leavening of wit and humor to lighten the mood, to undercut his passionate intensity when it becomes a bit too much.

He did sound entirely sober and serious, more than expected, and I did not hear him promising the moon. Only that he would "fight the good fight." And in that I believe him. He wanted to fight for freedom in Iraq, too -- same quality that made him a successful PI lawyer. Some people need to engage themselves in battle -- what William James called the "moral equivalent of war." Edwards strikes me as a man looking for an arena to fight on the side of the angels. He thought, I am sure, that he had found it in Iraq and the war on terror. Oops. Wrong. Now he thinks that it will be a battle against corrupting influence and corporate interests, on behalf of the poor and disenfranchised. Could he be right this time? It's a matter of judgment, not purity of intention.

Serious and intense are my defining qualities, too -- so this resonates. And yes, I could vote for Obama: highly educated, thoughtful, articulate, a gifted writer -- all qualities, in spades, sorely missed over the last seven years. The jury is out on Hillary Clinton whom I distrust although her competence and command cannot be questioned. She has yet to convince me, however, that she would represent my interests AND not enmesh us further in futile military conflicts. Just because she is a woman, like Maggie Thatcher, she may need to act tough. Which could prove dangerous. The Middle East is a powder keg.

One more thing: Hillary Clinton is a centrist leaning towards the right, with an excellent record on choice for women, decent on labor issues (if one can ignore a million-plus jobs lost to NAFTA and other "free trade" agreements -- slave trade, I would call them, given the pitiful wages paid to workers in China and elsewhere). Why these endorsements, then, from RFK, Jr., and other so-called progressives? Latching onto her skirt-tails, hoping she will remember them? Hillary Clinton does NOT represent political progressives -- the Democratic Party has no progressive wing, we have been wandering in the wilderness for so long that any mirage seems a verdant oasis.

It makes me mad enough that I may withhold my vote if Hillary Clinton is nominated. Sorry? Not. I would rather live under honest tyranny than veiled subterfuge. Prospects for revolution in the long run are better. Meantime, as has been said by one wiser than me... the emperor has no clothes. And we have little choice save between various shades and flavorings of the same corporate product. So it seems.

[MonkeyFunk]

20. I suspect Iowans

are already plenty familiar with John Edwards

Biden and Richardson are the likely beneficiaries of a closer look.

[Quixote1818]

26. Biden has been through Iowa about a 100 times hasn't he?

Hasn't he run for president several times already?

I live in New Mexico and can tell you that if you look too close at Richardson he could have some trouble as he has a lot of baggage. Richardson is very good with small groups and one on one. I have seen him speak to groups and make everyone in the room feel like they are his best friend. Bill Clinton has this talent and it may pay off for Richardson.

You are correct that they probably know him pretty good in Iowa but what I meant about taking a closer look is that they will turn away from some of the other candidates because they have not put together detailed plans like Edwards has on most issues especially health care which is tops on a lot of peoples lists.

[David Zephyr]

25. My crystal ball is telling me the same thing. As crunch time arrives, Edwards surges.

John needs to get back on message and drop the Hillary thing completely.

Americans want leadership.

They want someone who brings hope, vision and optimism.

John Edwards has all these qualities.

[Quixote1818]

27. I think he has done enough damage to Hillary

and he probably knows he must finish on a positive note. It seemed that as Edwards went after Hillary, Obama capitalized but as Edwards goes positive again and gets back on message he should do better. It's possible Obama could just run away with Iowa though. Hard to say but I think Edwards will surge this last month. Can his surge overtake Obama though? We will have to see.

[Adelante]

35. I think it's possible he can pull it off

The one danger I see for Edwards in Iowa is there could have been some image confusion set in between the positive guy they liked in 2003, liked a bit less in 2007 as the angry man, followed by this positive pivot at the end. I'd say if anybody can do it, Edwards can, because he is very convincing. But it will depend on whether or not the voters are feeling comfortable.

[PATRICK]

29. The Hillary thing

This is going to be tough from the Edwards tactical viewpoint and if he more than pulls it off he deserves the nomination.

By their own estimations(not always wise to publish) the best scenario would have been one of the foes tanking so that taking the survivor head on wouldn't be caught in this triangulation where everything seems like mud and desperation.

The Hillary deficit vote scare has not solidifed with people whose memories are fond of Bill and forgetful or ignorant of the easy theft of the last two elections. Her base remains the same with its power to take the nomniation even with ugly wins. Trying to get voters to think about this has to be done by surrogates not the rivals. Whatever, none of the logical or best case scenarios have gelled yet.

So things are interesting, advantage by the numbers to Hillary except for an important weakness in the critical second choice category in Iowa.

[AmBlue]

30. yes.... Yes.... YESSS!!! GO JOHNNY!!!

:kick:

[ChiciB1]

31. I'm Seeing His Slow Progression & It Makes Me So Very Happy! There

is a great article in the November issue of The Ladies Home Journal with Elizabeth Edwards. I read it today while in a doctor's waiting room. Check it out, it's really heart warming as she talked about a patchwork quilt and threads being added all the time.

It was SO Elizabeth and John, and she talked about what John would do if she losses her battle with cancer. It touched my heart. A nice read!!

[asdjrocky]

34. Here's some recent numbers a Friend from Iowa sent in an e-mail

I just got on, and I'm sure it's all over the board, truth is, I like looking at it. I believe this has been his plan all along. Steady wins the race.

From Rasmussen
Â
Considering the margin of error, there is a statistical 3-way tie for first.
Â
Iowa Caucus - Democrats
Â
Hillary Clinton - 27% Â
Barack Obama - 25% Â
John Edwards - 24%Â Â
Bill Richardson - 10% Â
Joe Biden - 4% Â
Other - 2% Â

Undecided - 8%
Â
But, and this is VERYÂ important...
Â
Edwards is WAY AHEAD in second choice polling. Remember an Iowa Democrats whose candidate does not meet the 15% viability threshold will be able to switch to a viable candidate. Clinton, Obama, and Edwards are the only candidates who will likely be viable in most precincts,
Â
Iowa Caucus - Democrats (Second Choice Polling)
Â
John Edwards - 28%
Barack Obama - 18%
Hillary Clinton - 16%
Bill Richardson - 15%

[cascadiance]

36. The nature of the caucus process will help him a lot!

It will help more Iowans talk amongst each other why they support him or whoever they support. Given that he leads as the "second place" candidate, I'm guessing there are a lot of folks that have good things to say about him, and not many that have negative things. With the caucus, that can have a bigger impact, where people talk amongst each other as a part of the voting process before they vote, unlike primary states.

[K8-EEE]

43. I loved him on KO last night calling the GOP crybabies

on the WAAAAH!!! A DEMOCRAT ASKED US A QUESTION! thing!!! RIGHT ON PLEASE CALL OUT THEIR BULLSHIT!

I'm SOOOOOOO voting for Edwards. I love his emphasis on the corporate money. I love that he's using public spending. GO JOHNNY GO!!

[BeyondGeography]

44. Edwards has practically been living in Iowa since 2003

I don't think a closer look is what's needed here. His main hope in Iowa is to continue running a strong campaign and hope Iowans turn away from the two people ahead of him.

[Quixote1818]

47. What I meant by closer look was a closer look at everyone

When you really look close at all the candidates Edwards has done his homework and many of the other candidates have not. A lot of people my be for Hillary right now but once they really look closely at her and everyone they will move back to Edwards.

Hard to say if he or Obama will end up in first place though.

[frogmarch]

49. The more TV appearances

Edwards gets (He was really good on KO and Charlie Rose), and the more that people hear what he has to say, the more support he'll get, I think. I hope.