NH POLL: Hillary lead over Obama shrinks to 12 (34 / 22), Edwards at 15

[jefferson_dem]

11/28/2007

With the New Hampshire presidential primaries just six weeks away, Hillary Clinton’s lead over Barack Obama and John Edwards is shrinking, while Republican front-runner Mitt Romney appears secure, according to a 7NEWS-Suffolk University poll.

Likely voters in the Democratic Primary, which includes independents, gave 34 percent support to Hillary Clinton, while 22 percent chose Barack Obama. Just 12 percent were undecided. However, in a June 2007 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll, Clinton led Obama by 18 points compared to her 12-point spread today.

“If Obama could shave off another six points in the next few weeks, he’ll be well within the margin of error – and John Edwards still has a chance to make it a three-person race," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.

http://www.suffolk.edu/25101.html

MORE INFO and TRENDS: http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/11/28/15213/116

[bunnies]

1. People are starting to pay attention.

Name recognition is wearing off. NH is starting to come to its senses.

[Adelante]

2. Check this out

An old New Hampshire hand once taught me the 40-35-30 rule for the New Hampshire primary after Iowa results are in. It goes as follows:

If a front runner is at 40, they win since the challenger would need to win 66% of the remaining vote to win

If a front runner is at 35, they are in danger but might win since a challenger would need 53% of the remaining vote to win.

If they are at 30 they lose, as a challenger would need 44% of the vote to win. Hillary is in the danger zone according to that rule - and could be beaten if she loses Iowa. If she wins, my guess is she gets to 40, and she wins.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/11/28/15213/116


Undecideds quite high

Nearly half of likely voters from both parties said that they may change their minds before Jan. 8, 2008. Eleven percent were “very likely to change their mind,” and 38 percent were “somewhat likely.”

http://www.suffolk.edu/25101.html

[tekisui]

3. Thanks for that.

Time for the candidates to get serious and show America who the true leaders are.

[calteacherguy]

4. The stats in the lower gray box...those are the most significant of all. nt

[bunnies]

5. Thats exactly why NH is still up for grabs.

Polls be damned.