My Take - DU Results of Top Three Candidates

[Steely_Dan]

I took the liberty of keeping a running tally on the following thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3756096#3766329

The thread was titled “Tell us your first 3 choices, in order of preference” posted on November 25th. Thanks to Katzenkavalier for the original post. Some of you may have been following this thread with interest.

I know how many people feel about polls, particularly DU polls. So there is no attempt to make the results or the commentary scientific. However, I don’t believe that the results of this thread or how it was conducted is completely without merit.

As a side note, I felt that this “poll” was unlike other DU polls in that it required three choices instead of the typical “single” choice. For me, this put a new wrinkle on the often asked question: “Who is your choice for the Democratic nomination?” (including all its incarnations)

Different people will read the results in different ways and come up with their own interpretation of its meaning (if their is a meaning at all). I would love to hear feedback on your interpretation.

First, some housekeeping...
The question presented in the thread was: Tell us your first three choices for the nomination, with “1” being your favorite.

I took the liberty of following the thread and posting points on the following basis:

1st choice received 3 points,
2nd choice received 2 points
3rd choice received 1 point.

If a poster only included one name or the same name three times, I gave their choice 3 points once. If they only listed two names, I gave the first name 3 points and the second 2 points. Those that put two names as a tie, I awarded points to both names.

These were the results:

Biden 138
Edwards 119
Obama 104
Kucinich 73
Clinton 54
Dodd 42
Richardson 28

My take:
First, I must be honest here and admit that I am an unashamed Biden supporter. I started out waiting for Wes Clark to enter the race and then Gore. Of the current candidates, I leaned strongly towards Edwards and Obama.

I was a bit surprised at the results. I thought that Biden would do well in this thread because I believe he has more support than one might guess just reading the unending posts on the top tier. I think the most important information I gained from the results is that many people here have included Biden as their second or third choice. This is important because in Iowa a choice for “second” does mean something.

As a result, I think that Biden will do better in Iowa than many believe. I’m guessing that he will move up further than any other candidate after all is said and done.

I’ll save you the time by not going over why I am a Biden supporter. However, you can read my essay on the Joe Biden site if you are interested.

http://blog.joebiden.com/?p=1318#comments

What are your thoughts concerning the results of this thread?

-Paige

[BonnieJW]

1. I think

Biden/Edwards would be a winning ticket. They scream experience, diplomacy, the democrat ideal.

[dmallind]

2. Surprised DK didn't romp

He seems to be the darling of DU subjectively based on reading. Surprised Biden did so well, not because I have anything against the guy, but because he has so little traction and I hadn't seen a huge DU support level for him. Not surprised Clinton was an also ran given the widespread negativity. Not surprised that we as a whole once again demonstrated that we are not representative of the Democratic party, let alone the US population.

And hey at least my guy beat Gravel apparently ;)

[Steely_Dan]

3. I Agree About...

the fact that DU is not wholly representative of the "average" democrat (whatever that is).

-Paige

[tekisui]

4. If we had instant run-off voting, I think Biden would win.

He seems to be a favorite #2 for a lot here.

He may win the nominee anyway.

[Steely_Dan]

5. Like Your Tag Line

I saw Naomi on Democracy Now today...very bright lady.

-P

[1corona4u]

7. Ditto. Saw her too...

[1corona4u]

6. Well done, well said...

and spot on. :thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

[gateley]

8. How did I miss this?

Very interesting and somewhat surprising results. Not that I'm complaining! :7

Thanks for doing this!

[1corona4u]

9. Pretty cool huh?