Zogby: Mark Penn (Hillary's DLC pollster) is 'buckling under the pressure'

[jackbourassa]

Apparently Mark Penn, Hillary's DLC pollster and Karl Rove wannabe, was on Joe Scarborough's show today and had some disparaging remarks about the last Zogby poll which showed Hillary TRAILING all the top and middle tier Republican candidates, and Obama and Edwards winning.

He made several assertions against the poll, most of the them false, despite the fact that he "more than any other pollster" has made many requests for internal numbers in Zogby's previous polls.

In this article, Zogby is accusing Penn of feeling the heat and "buckling under the pressure." Apparently all is not well in Hillaryland.

An interesting read...

www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1394

[saracat]

1. Zogby handled this with a lot of class unlike Mark Penn who denigrated them because it wasn't what

he wanted to hear.Typical of the alleged front runners campaign and very nasty.

[MethuenProgressive]

23. Zogby poll was of Zogby members. Gallup had the opposite findings.

Zogby v Gallup:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3761999&mesg_id=3761999

[depakid]

33. Like Gallup has any credibility

Please.

[MethuenProgressive]

35. Zogby contradicts all other polling. Gallup shows same results as all non-Zogby polls.

All polls but the fixed members-only polling of Zogby are rigged, you say?
:rofl:
You're welcome.

[earthlover]

47. Not true

CBS has Obama ahead in iowa.

A new Strategic Vision poll now has the race tied at 29, where the previous poll had hillary up 29 to 27.

I dare say there is more than one poll not to hillary's liking these days.

And...the hillary gaggle who has inundated us with polls for months....is now busy spinning why the polls don't mean anything.

Wow! Just wow.

[roguevalley]

58. If I am correct, Gallup's guy is a right wing who lives three feet up

bush's butt.

[BenDavid]

2. This interactive poll is a fraud. WHY? Because in my

little world on the web there are 53 of us across this country that are supporters of HRC. Plus, we all subscribe to this Zobgy internation/interactive polling. Of the 53 of us there were only 5 that received the email on this polling sample. That left 48 of us without a chance to vote. So, I say it is bogus.....

Oh and there was another poll released this week from Gallup and it showed just the opposite.HRC beating all the republicans. Now which one do you think this so called HRC press ran with? uh huh the Zogby poll. Just like last week when all the msm polling showed HRC ahead in Iowa over Obama from 2 to 10 points but when the abc poll came out last tuesday you would think the other networks polling was in some ways not right....Never seen the media use another networks polling and disregard their own...

Hell, I thought I knew how the game was played but I never thought it would be this much under the table.

Ben David

[jackbourassa]

3. Oh Ben, get over yourself...

What you Hillary supporters have to learn is that there is no giant conspiracy against you. I know how everytime Hillary is backed against the wall she starts crying about everyone who is against her. But sometimes a poll is just a poll. Not some "vast right wing conspiracy."

Instead of ATTACKING everyone or anyone who disagrees with you or comes out with information that contradicts the "official line," in this case that Hillary is "inevitable" and "unbeatable," why not just accept it for what it is: that some people don't agree with Hillary Clinton, and that number is growing.

[aquart]

10. Riiiiiiight. It's Hillary who's conspiring. I keep forgetting.

[quickesst]

22. "But sometimes a poll is just a poll."

And isn't it just, er, coincidental that 90% of the polls posted here, reflect that particular op's choice? Every single day I come on this board there is another poll, with a different candidate in the lead. That the posters here just happen to run across "just a poll", and it happens to reflect favorably upon their candidate, is simply coincidental. The games people play. Thanks.
quickesst

[MethuenProgressive]

24. "Clinton trails top 2008 Republicans"/"Hillary beats all Republicans"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3761999&mesg_id=3761999

[Texas_Kat]

4. We all know that multiple email addresses will gain you 'multiple votes'

on online polls -- Zogby's is no different.

I'm sure no one here at DU engages in this sort of thing, but a plethora of non-Democrats would skew this poll unmercifully.

Don't kid yourself... Zogby sells his 'interactive online poll' to retailers. Can't tell you how many of his silly polls I've answered dealing with everything from hand held devices to cars. Any whisper to those clients of his that his poll is really garbage is gonna cost him cash.

Expect him to defend his pocketbook.

[aquart]

11. Have you ever taken a Zogby poll? I'm betting not.

It runs exactly the same as the Harris poll which is almost completely commercial, used by businesses to make decisions.

As for multiple entries thru multiple email addresses....how do you figure that works when they rotate their list and nobody knows if they're getting the email or not?

[Texas_Kat]

14. Yeah, in fact the one he's citing is sitting untaken in my email account right now

There's a method to getting frequent 'calls' from Zogby to fill out his 'online polls'. It's not hard to figure out.

I get one from his organization about twice a month.

[ClarkUSA]

15. I am signed up with Zogby with multiple emails and I haven't gotten anything from Zogby for awhile.

I guess I haven't figured out the "method to getting frequent calls" yet. I didn't even know there was a way to make Zogby contact a person.
Is that right?

[Texas_Kat]

16. Check your junk mail folder

"Make him"? no.... more like 'become one of the desired respondents".... yeah absolutely. It's all in the way they score the demographics.

[ClarkUSA]

17. I always do.

But I haven't gotten Zogby for awhile now.

[Kucinich4America]

5. So only 5 of 53 saw this alleged e mail?

Possibly some spam filters being overactive. It happens. And usually when something is coming from a large mailing list.

If that was the case, it wouldn't be Zogby's fault.

[aquart]

12. They rotate the list. Nobody gets every poll every time.

[LittleClarkie]

7. Gallup is no prize

They gallup to the right generally.

[provis99]

8. Gallup is a right-wing polling firm.

They want the Republicans to run against Hillary. 'nuff said.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. And Zogby Was Rush Limbaugh's Favorite Pollster!

Rush Limbaugh bestowed on Zogby the "my favorite pollster" mantle, a kind of calling card for use among political conservatives. By October of 1998, Zogby had reiterated in National Review his findings about the public's opinion of the Lewinsky affair. That year Zogby also did some 60 polls for the Republican Congressional Committee. It's no wonder that many today still think he's a Republican pollster.

http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=john_zogbys_creative_polls

[earthlover]

36. In all fairness, I think it is appropriate to see Zogby's methodology....

In all fairness, I think it is appropriate to see Zogby's methodology....


http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1064

...."As the election drew near, Pollster Zogby was quoted widely saying that he believed the Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives would pick up between 25 and 30 seats, and that Democrats would almost certainly pick up three or four seats in the Senate, and perhaps get as high as six. As in earlier elections, Zogby’s estimates turned out to be right on the mark.


Another bright spot for Zogby came from its online polling division, Zogby Interactive, which correctly identified the winners in 18 of 19 Senate races. And the only race that Zogby did not pick correctly – the McCaskill/Talent race in Missouri – was still well within the margin of error. Zogby Interactive had Talent winning re–election by a single percentage point, instead of losing by 2%.


This separate polling methodology, under research and development at Zogby since 1998, showed particular value in mapping close contests – it correctly identified the winners in four of the five races that were won by single digits (the McCaskill race being the exception). Taking into consideration the last–minute twists and turns that took place in that race after the Zogby Interactive poll left the field, its result was remarkably precise...."

I think it is a cheap shot to dismiss this poll as if it were the type of "internet poll" we see on CNN, etc where people can vote multiple times. The methodology is way different, and apparently it has had a good track record so far.

Zogby is a respected pollster. I think it is deplorable how people have jumped to the conclusion that this was a "bogus poll". I suspect that is because some don't like the outcome.

So, go ahead and flame me. But at least read the methodology you are talking about....

=========

By the way, a new Strategic Vision poll shows Hillary and Obama tied at 29%. The previous Strategic Vision poll had Hillary 29 and Obama 27.

I suppose the Hillary folk who just recently touted the Strategic Vision poll as showing they were ahead will now whine that Strategic Vision is a Republican poll (which it is).

So we will have the spectacle of them complaining that Strategic Vision is Rep and Zogby is Dem in the same breath!

One point should not be ignored. In both the Strategic Vision and Zogby polls, Hillary's lead has slipped. And the CBS poll has Obama now ahead.

When the same poll shows a shift, and others show the same shift, there is reason to believe a shift is happening.

But....now....it's your turn....go back to killing the messenger and attack the polls you don't like. :-)

[Renew Deal]

54. How do you know you have 53 friends?

Who has time to keep up with that? Also, following your premise that only a small number of your friends got it, wouldn't that suggest that a small number of other candidates supporters ALSO received the poll?

[ClarkUSA]

6. Why is Mark Penn dissing Zogby when he asks for more Zogby polling data than any other campaign?

What is interesting is that no other campaign has made as many requests for Zogby polling data over the years than Penn has made on behalf of Clinton.

Because Mark Penn is a quality pollster himself, we chalk up his contention that our poll is “meaningless” as a knee–jerk reaction by a campaign under pressure coming down the stretch. Several other polls – Zogby surveys and others – have shown her national lead and her leads in early–voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire have shrunk.

[jgraz]

9. Penn doesn't like any poll he can't personally rig

[wyldwolf]

28. that's like saying why do "progressives"* dis Hillary when they spend most of their time on her

that's like saying why do "progressives"* dis the DLC when the DLC's website is one of the most quoted websites on netroots land.

[1932]

31. "the DLC's website is one of the most quoted websites on netroots land"

Really?

[wyldwolf]

34. uh huh.

[1932]

37. More than DailyKos? More than TPM? More than Huffington Report? More than Media Matters?

Honestly, I can't remember ever seeing the DLC website cited.

[wyldwolf]

41. probably not, but I didn't say it was THE most quoted... but if you want proof...

...here's a start:

On DU, between Jan. 1, 2004 and now, dlc.org was referenced at least 344 times and ndol.org was referenced at least 321 times in General Discussion: Politics. In General Discussion, dlc.org was referenced 73 times and ndol.org was reference at least 19 times.

On dailykos, according to their search function, dlc.org was referenced 300 times in the last 5 years and ndol.org 27 times.

... and that was just a 5 minute search.

[1932]

43. 600 times in about 20,000,000 posts? Search DailyKos, New York Times, TPM, Huffington, FreeRepublic

Washington Post, MediaMatters, Democracynow.org, the nation, buzzflash, deanforamerica, Drudge, and tell me what you find.

I think we could probably come up with a list of at least 100 sites that have many more than 600 hits over 20,000,000 posts.

[wyldwolf]

48. why? Even if Dailykos, for example, is referenced more, it only proves...

... dailykos is referenced more. It doesn't disprove that the DLC is one of the most referenced websites. The Whopper is one the most eaten burgers, it isn't THE most eaten burger.

In addition, the this discussion centers on people using information from sources they apparently distrust - the Clinton campaign and Zogby, for example. "Progressives"* and the DLC, using my example.

[1932]

50. So, there's no threshold at which your claim is an exaggeration?

I sincerely doubt the DLC is one of the most referenced websites at DU.

600 references in about 20,000,000 posts doesn't sound like much, and I'm sure there are at least 100 sites that are more frequently mentioned.

[wyldwolf]

52. not so sure about a "threshold." Surely you understand...

... what the statement "one of the" means. In regards to the relevancy of this conversation (people referencing sources they don't agree with,) I doubt you will find website referenced more in that regard than that of the DLC. Certainly people on DU have no standing feuds with Dailykos and Huffington Post.

[1932]

53. Does it mean that DLC is one of the 10,000 most ref'd sites? One of the 100,000 most ref'd sites?

[wyldwolf]

56. ok, let's look at it another way

In just General Discussion: Politics, the DLC was referenced no less than 12,066 times since 2004 (DU search feature said there were too many references to display.) Yet, Dailykos was references just 4,856 times in that time period.

To answer your question, and keeping this discussion within the confines of my original premise (people using information from sources they apparently distrust ), I would put the DLC "top 3" of websites referenced by the netroots.

I challenge you to find a source the netroots distrusts that is referenced more.

[Rageneau]

13. The Zogby poll had Huckabee beating HRC. You really believe that?

If you DON'T believe that Huckabee would beat Hillary in the general, then you don't really believe in the results of this Zogby ONLINE poll. And if you don't really believe in those poll results, yet continue to tout them, you are not being honest. If you are not being honest, why listen to yourself?

[flpoljunkie]

18. Morning Joe reported today that not only was Zogby poll valid, touted Gallup poll yesterday was old!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. So Now Joe Scarborough (R) Pensacola Is An Unbiased Source

I feel as if I am Alice In Wonderland...

[flpoljunkie]

21. It's quite obvious how hard Joe works to promote Hillary's candidacy. Penn wrong about Zogby polls.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. And I Guess Mika Mika Brzezinksi Whose Dad And Brother Are Working For Obama Are In HRC's Camp Too!

And the Zogby interactive poll is a non probability poll and is (not) rooted in science...

[Perry Logan]

19. "Media Lavishes Attention On Bogus Internet Poll Showing Hillary Losing To Repubs"

Media Lavishes Attention On Bogus Internet Poll Showing Hillary Losing To Repubs -- And Ignores Reputable Poll Finding Opposite

Yesterday two polling firms -- Zogby and Gallup -- released surveys of the presidential race that offered strikingly different conclusions. The Zogby poll found that Hillary is trailing five leading GOP candidates in general election matchups. The Gallup Poll, by contrast, found that Hillary, and to a lesser degree Obama, has a slight to sizable lead over the top GOP contenders.

A couple of other things that distinguish these two polls: The Zogby one is an online poll, a notoriously unreliable method, while the Gallup one is a telephone poll. And, as Charles Franklin of Pollster.com observed yesterday, the Zogby poll is completely out of sync with multiple other national polls finding Hillary with a lead over the GOP candidates. The Zogby poll actually found that Mike Huckabee is leading Hillary in a national matchup. The Gallup findings were in line with most other surveys.

I don't need to tell you which poll got all the media attention. Do I?
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/horsesmouth/2007/11/media_lavishes.php

[HughMoran]

39. Interesting

I don't know what to believe.

[wyldwolf]

27. Unfortunately for John Zogby (R-Fake Pollster), many people have debunked his polling

[earthlover]

38. Zogby is a Democrat I believe

read the link to his polling methodology I put up. He was right using this interactive method on every race in 06 except one, and that was within the margin of error.

Who cares whether Limbaugh likes Zogby or not? Limbaugh could like the sun rising, but that does not mean the sun rising is a conservative thing.

[wyldwolf]

42. so? That doesn't erase his suspect polling techniques

[earthlover]

45. Suspected by whom? By those who don't like the results!

Zogby's interactive method was right in predicting every race in 06 except one, and that was within the margin of error.

Funny thing, because up until election day, few were predicting that the Dems would win so many seats!

Same. Methodology.

[wyldwolf]

51. numerous people. Here are some references you missed yesterday

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3763405&mesg_id=3763405
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3762175&mesg_id=3762175

Zogby's interactive method was right in predicting every race in 06 except one, and that was within the margin of error.

In the 2004 presidential election, Zogby predicted a comfortable win for John Kerry (311 electoral votes, versus 213 for Bush, with 14 too close to call).

[Renew Deal]

55. Of course.

If Hillary was up by 50 the Hillary people would be touting Zogby. I don't blame that for it. It's just how the game is played.

[Perry Logan]

29. Rush Limbaugh- "Zogby's My Favorite Pollster"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3765793

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. He's A Clintonphobe For Sure

During L'affaire Lewisnky his polls always managed to put Bill Clinton in the worst light...

But my problem with his interactive poll is it's not a non probability sample and thus not rooted in science...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. You Notice Like The Clintonphobes I Don't Use Right Wing Sources

DSB

[earthlover]

40. Limbaugh could like the sun rising....doesn't mean the sun rising is conservative

Who the f* CARES what Limbaugh thinks anyhow?

Zogby's interactive polls were accurate in predicting every race in 06 except one, and that was within the margin of error (see previously posted link).

Now all this can be cast aside because Limbaugh likes Zogby?

Fact is, Zogby is respected pollster. And he is a Democrat, as if that mattered either!

Within the last week I have read posts complaining that Zogby is not to be trusted as a pollster because he is a Democrat and now because Rush like him. When will the spin stop?

Now...if Zogby comes out in a couple of weeks that Hillary is back with a commanding lead, all the Hillary Gaggle is going to be saying how great Zogby is. Again.

It is really hillary-ous watching the hillary gaggle get upset about...of all things....POLLS! They have for months inundated us with poll after poll. After poll after poll. After poll. After polllllllllll.

But if a poll is not to their liking, that is another story indeed!

Great fun watching the spin!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. Fact is, Zogby is respected pollster.

I would argue the contrary as have these scholars and journalists:


http://www.cjr.org/politics/how_reliable_is_the_zogbyjourn.php


http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=john_zogbys_creative_polls


http://www.pollster.com/blogs/zogby_internet_poll_trial_heat.php

[earthlover]

46. The why is it that Penn consults Zogby?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

49. Zogby Said Penn Consults Him...Maybe He Does Or Maybe He Doesn't

As a social scientist I believe social scientific inquiry should be unbiased and adhere to the basic tenets of science...Once the data is collected then we are free to make whatever inferences and recommendations from that data that we want...

[kenfrequed]

57. Feh...Polls

All polls are inaccurate!

They under-represent the poor, people who rent, minorities, students, people living in nursing homes, people in the military, young people and anyone that has moved in the last five years.

The only accurate polls are exit polls.

I would be more upset at Zogby, if CNN and MSNBC hadn't given her (as well as obama and Edwards) so much on their ridiculous debates based on all of this flawed polling data.

Sorry but my outrage at pollsters is sort of used up.

[rinsd]

59. Zogby Interactive's record speaks for itself (it sucked in 2004 and 2006)

[jackbourassa]

60. Thanks for all your comments...keep em coming

nt