Zogby Defends Poll; says Hillary's Pollster Buckling Under the Pressure of an Unfavorable Poll

[TeamJordan23]

Mark Penn: Buckling Under the Pressure of an Unfavorable Poll

Penn mischaracterized this latest online Zogby poll as our first interactive survey ever – a bizarre contention, since we have been developing and perfecting our Internet polling methodology for nearly a decade (Zogby Intreractive Methodology), and since Penn’s company has been quietly requesting the results of such polls from Zogby for years. We always comply as part of our pledge to give public Zogby polling results to any and every candidate and campaign that asks for them. What is interesting is that no other campaign has made as many requests for Zogby polling data over the years than Penn has made on behalf of Clinton.

Because Mark Penn is a quality pollster himself, we chalk up his contention that our poll is “meaningless” as a knee–jerk reaction by a campaign under pressure coming down the stretch. Several other polls – Zogby surveys and others – have shown her national lead and her leads in early–voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire have shrunk. This is not unusual.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1394

[Forkboy]

1. ...

:popcorn:

[joeybee12]

2. The tone of Zogby's response says it all...

...Zogby is an ass. Knee-jerk reaction indeed--we know who the jerk is.

[XemaSab]

4. I heard Zogby was a Lesbian.

:popcorn:

[TeamJordan23]

5. When Penn goes on TV trashing the poll; I think you have a right to defend it and show the hypocrisy

of Clinton, Penn, and Co.

[venable]

19. interesting, when I read your subject line, I assumed you meant the level, mature tone

and that this showed how right he is (and I do believe he is exactly right).

so, just fyi, what you read as Zogby being an ass, I read as a mature, reasonable, intelligent reaction to Mark Penn, who is a shockingly histrionic guy.

and what do you make of the fact that Penn asks, with greater frequency than any other campaign, for Zogby polls.


sadly typical HRC supporter - doesn't address the formidable point made by Zogby, just calls him an 'ass'.


I really hope this kind of disputation is not rewarded with the nomination. I feel like we are in the hands of dishonest people, and a candidate without a vision, just a desire for power. otherwise, the supporters would have more substantial rebuttals than saying 'ass'.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

3. ahem

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Penn caught with pants at his ankles.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Wasn't Zogby Rush Limbaugh's Favorite Pollster?

Rush Limbaugh bestowed on Zogby the "my favorite pollster" mantle, a kind of calling card for use among political conservatives. By October of 1998, Zogby had reiterated in National Review his findings about the public's opinion of the Lewinsky affair. That year Zogby also did some 60 polls for the Republican Congressional Committee. It's no wonder that many today still think he's a Republican pollster.

http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=john_zogbys_creative_polls

[TeamJordan23]

7. Don't know, but looks as though he is one of Hillary's fav. pollsters. nm

[venable]

20. rush, penn, yeah, that's the combo. nt

[motocicleta]

21. He's just a pollster.

And a pretty liberal or at least fair-minded one at that. Remember he called 2004 for Kerry?

[Greyskye]

25. And he got that one right, too.

No sarcasm.

[motocicleta]

26. Too bad America didn't care.

Bitter? Moi?

[IndyOp]

8. Zogby Interactive Online polling is NOT - by the way - like any other notoriously

unreliable online poll. I've seen several flippant posts about this at DU and, because I teach statistics it ticks me off -- Zogby's methodology is sound. READ about it...

Election 2006—Zogby Polling on the Mark in Tumultuous Midterms
Pollster bats 10 for 10 in the Reuters/Zogby telephone poll package of competitive Senate races; Interactive polling model shines
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1064

Another bright spot for Zogby came from its online polling division, Zogby Interactive, which correctly identified the winners in 18 of 19 Senate races. And the only race that Zogby did not pick correctly – the McCaskill/Talent race in Missouri – was still well within the margin of error. Zogby Interactive had Talent winning re–election by a single percentage point, instead of losing by 2%.

This separate polling methodology, under research and development at Zogby since 1998, showed particular value in mapping close contests – it correctly identified the winners in four of the five races that were won by single digits (the McCaskill race being the exception). Taking into consideration the last–minute twists and turns that took place in that race after the Zogby Interactive poll left the field, its result was remarkably precise.

There is still work to be done in perfecting the interactive polling model – for instance, the interactive survey had Minnesota Democrat Amy Klobuchar leading in the Senate race there by 8%, while she coasted to an easy 20% victory. And in New York, incumbent Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton led by 24% in the poll but actually won with a 36% edge. Some of that can be attributed to the fact that, for a variety of reasons, the larger the advantage one candidate holds over another, the more difficult it is to pinpoint what the exact margin between them will be on Election Day.

Zogby Interactive also correctly identified 16 of 21 winners in races for governor around the country, correctly choosing the winner in six of the nine closest races that ended with single–digit victories. For instance, in Illinois, Zogby had incumbent Democrat Gov. Rod Blagojevich up by 7% heading down the stretch; he ended up winning by 9%. In Maryland, Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley was leading in the Zogby Interactive poll by 5%; he won by 7%. Even in the blow–out race for Massachusetts governor, Deval Patrick led in the interactive poll by 25% and ended up winning by 21%.

Again, in the governor’s races, there were misses by the interactive model. In Arkansas, the last poll before Election Day has Republican Asa Hutchinson up by 3%, but he lost to Democrat Mike Beebe by 14%. And in Colorado, where gubernatorial candidates Bob Beauprez, the Republican, and Democrat Bill Ritter were tied in the last interactive survey. When votes were counted, Ritter won by 15%.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. If You Teach Statistics Then You Know The Difference Between A Probaility And A Non Probaility

Sample...

Zogby's polls falls into the latter...

The poll has been debunked here:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/zogby_internet_poll_trial_heat.php

Here are Professor Franklin's creds:


http://www.polisci.wisc.edu/~franklin/

[IndyOp]

23. The author - Professor Franklin is speculating...

The Zogby poll was conducted 11/21-26/07 with 9150 respondents who had agreed to take part in Zogby's online polling. This is not a normal random sample of the population. More on the technical issues below.

Until Zogby releases the details of his interactive polling methods we will not know how he is selecting people to invite to participate. If he has a database with 10,000's of people who've already reported to him their political leanings, their age, sex, socioeconomic status etcetera and he sends out emails to participate to a "representative random sample" -- a subset of his database who represent the population of interest -- then his sample may be MORE representative of the population than a truly random (pick a telephone number out of a database) sample.

If - for example - we know that the U.S. includes 45% Democrats, 45% Republicans, and the rest are independents then a truly random sample starts with a randomized list of telephone numbers and calls people until they've reached, say, 300 respondents. The possible problem with a truly random sample? Out of those 300 they might wind up with 40% Democrats and %50 Republicans and the rest are independents. A "representative random sample" is when you pre-identify Democrats and Republicans and independents, put their contact information in separate databases and randomly contact people listed in each database until you have drawn 45% Democrats, 45% Republicans, and so forth. By randomly selecting individuals from pre-determined categories you can come closer to a representative sample than by a purely random sample.

Franklin's post is CHOCK FULL of speculation and inference -- IF this, then that, but wait -- the other might make more sense... Example: "One answer to why Clinton does so badly MIGHT be that the poll has too few Democrats and thus biases its results. But if that were so, we'd expect Obama to also underperform his trend estimates. That doesn't happen, as the chart below makes clear."

One poll is not conclusive - maybe Zogby's next poll will be different.

I am, however, absolutely unwilling to jump into the pile of bullshit logic that people have been posting here at DU -- that a Zogby Interactive Poll is no better than any online poll. Until they know how Zogby goes about selecting the participants he invites to participate in any particular poll -- then they -- and Franklin -- are speculating.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. It's Not A Random Sample

At least in a random sample poll I have a chance of being sampled, albeit a very, very small one... In a poll where you have to register to be sampled and I don't register I have no chance at all of being sampled... It's not rooted in science... If you can find a social science researcher who says a poll where you have to register is random I'll eat my monitor on youtube...

[William769]

9. Wasn't a Hillary pollster that showed this as a sham.

:rofl:

[AtomicKitten]

10. It was a devastating poll that was splashed across the media.

And the Clinton camp has worked feverishly to discredit the findings, impugning the source, the poll itself, etc. But it is what it is and the impression that a Clinton candidacy would effect an outcome too close for comfort is now officially out there, fair or not.

[jefferson_dem]

11. Mark Penn has no credibility at all.

Zogby wins.

[durrrty libby]

13. The zogs must defend his crap online poll. He is trying to save his ass

Edit to add from another thread

/www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2358630

"Remember when Zogby had Lazio beating Hillary right before the 2000 election?"

[Kindigger]

14. Getting the results you want

Interesting now that I see the name Penn. Last week I got a survey from several different online survey sites titled "An Interesting Survey for Iowans". I got multiple invitations from these sites over a period of several days, because I hadn't checked my email for awhile.

Every one of them transferred me to a "partner site" (Penn). I was able to take the same survey regarding Clinton two or more times through each site.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. I Never Got One Of Those

Can you copy and paste the e-mail minus the personal information?

[Bitwit1234]

15. We should look for a lot of the MSM being involved in

trying to trash our candidates. And for the media to spin and dip and trash and mash anything they can do to make the democrats look bad. Why are we suprised.

[EV_Ares]

16. This is the crap about polls I hate. Credibility or no credibility, I can see

why the Clinton's get pissed if it is a screwed up type poll. I can see where the other side is going to grab it and run with it. That is what is done, get a poll you like and push it. It is done here on this board and it is done out in the real world as well. There seems to be a lot of questions about this poll and not being any expert it seems to me that it should either get certified in a credible way or it should be brought to the publics attention it is not a credible poll. How the hell you do that, I don't know but the media did hype this poll big time which is unfair.

All I am saying the media pisses me off as we all know how they screwed us against the republicans and if they are left to get away with being biased in this situation, they will do it again and it will be us again.

Polls are bullshit today as they will be something else tomorrow anyway.

[Colobo]

17. Take that, Penn!

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

18. Zogby is certainly the most reliable source on the reliability of the poll

[ClarkUSA]

22. Good to know. Penn's use of Zogby polls belies his criticism, doesn't it?

Penn's hypocritical protestations don't surprise me, given the bad message this poll sends to the media. And the polling sample is huge, too (almost 10K)
with a margin of error of only 1%.

[ozone_man]

24. Looks like we have to find a real Democrat.

I won't try to hide my pleasure at seeing this poll, but it's also an opportunity to get a real Democrat in their before it's too late.