Obama is in the best position to win Iowa

[calteacherguy]

because he leads as both the first AND second choice candidate.

Follow this for a moment: In most precincts, each candidate must receive support from at least 15 percent of the folks in attendance to remain viable. If a smaller percentage of caucusgoers in a particular precinct supports Sen. Chris Dodd, for example, each Dodd supporter has the option of throwing his or her support to someone else, someone they like second-best.

And that may help the second-best person come in first.

This is why Barack Obama recently asked a Dodd supporter in Iowa if he could please be her second choice.

"Senator Obama was extremely gracious," Democratic activist Karen Thalacker told the Chicago Sun-Times. "I told him, 'Absolutely.' "

What a strange phenomenon -- begging to be someone's second choice. But it matters so much that pollsters ask Democrats in Iowa not only about their first choices but about their second choices, too. (Obama leads in both categories, according to the new Washington Post-ABC News Poll.)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/22/AR2007112201319.html

[msongs]

1. gettin all those repubs who will vote for him in the primary & the repub in the general ? nt

[Tellurian]

4. With one poll showing him leading by 1 pt is not encouraging..

especially where he is down 3pts Nationally.

probably a fluke!

[calteacherguy]

9. Actually, by 4% and you will see when the next polls come out it's not a fluke. nt

[Tellurian]

14. So, where is this info coming from Cal?

[calteacherguy]

15. I have my sources.

I won't say more.

[Tellurian]

16. No way to verify their authenticity then..

ok..

[ClarkUSA]

28. Thanks for the incisive analysis.

Not.

[Evergreen Emerald]

2. I just saw Vilsack on CNN and he said in 10 of 11 Iowa polls Clinton is ahead

and in one poll Obama is ahead. If that is true, there is significant media attempt to bring Clinton down by highlighting one poll of 11. And what is even worse, is that DU used to be the place to get the real scoop, and I see that the hype is the same here.

[Debi]

5. Please find a better source of information than Tom Vilsack

After Clinton supporters payed off his campaign debt his job has been solely to preach the Gospel of Hillary Clinton to Iowans and the MSM.

[Evergreen Emerald]

6. Really? Vilsack is lying?

[Debi]

13. Lying? No

But comments he's made like the recent ones regarding Senator Clinton being the Administration's face of foreign policy maybe a little over-exaggeration. I wonder if he looks in the mirror and practices saying the words "Secretary Vilsack"?

[Evergreen Emerald]

18. I wish you had seen him on CNN--he explained that as well

He said that Bill Clinton has said that many times, as he was busy with Bosnia, he sent Hillary Clinton to foreign lands many times during his administration (especially the first year). He stated that Clinton had been to 82 countries to speak to the leaders about foreign affairs.

He may not have been far off.

The assumption--that anyone who supports Clinton must have alterer motives--is troubling to me. People who previously thought that Clark was awesome, now suddenly think he is lying just to get ahead politically. Interesting phenom.

[Debi]

20. I wasn't a fan of Vilsack looooong ago

It has nothing to do with who he has been paid to support for President.

[Evergreen Emerald]

21. you certainly do sound baised

[Debi]

25. I am n/t

[Evergreen Emerald]

34. do tell

what causes you to dislike Vilsack?

[Debi]

36. He was my Governor for 8 years

and made choices that were not so Democrat friendly during his tenure. (in fact he almost didn't get a major labor endorsement during his 2002 re-election b/c of things he had done in the previous four years). Being a 'friend of Tom' was like being a 'friend of Bill' (If you weren't their friend you didn't get a job, your bill didn't get attention, your calls didn't get returned, you were 'invisible'). In 2004 he had the opportunity to protect Iowa's position as the First in the Nation Caucus but chose to not 'play that card' with Kerry since he still believed he was in line to be VP (So instead he got his wife a speaking gig at the National Convention). I won't go into the next three years of BS regarding the DNC calendar commission and his meddling in it, but he nearly sank his state in order to get himself a step-up in the primary process. (and there are some personal things between him and my family that don't need to be put out for all on the internets to read). That's just a few reasons.

[Evergreen Emerald]

41. thanks

I appreciate the insight.

(spell checked for the anal, you know who you are) :)

[petersjo02]

29. Those other motives...

That would be "ulterior" motives.

Edited to add that Debi is "biased," not "baised."

[Evergreen Emerald]

30. gee. I bet your fun at parties too

[calteacherguy]

8. He is ahead in the most recent poll because it is the most recent.

He keeps moving ahead in the polls there more and more everyday.

Vilsack is an agent for Clinton

[earthlover]

22. well, do you you believe everything a Hillary proponent says?

Vilsack is of course supporting Hillary. But, before I lend credence to what he says, I would like to see the polls for myself. I suspect that he is going way back in time to get so many polls and is being selective at that. But at any rate I am just going to yawn and ask any Hillary supporters if they can substantiate Vilsack's claim with current (last week or so) polls. If you can't, then....yawn, yawn, yawn to Vilsack.

Hillary. Is. Toast. In. Iowa.

Third or fourth place finish.

[Evergreen Emerald]

23. I would like to see the polls too. I don't believe CNN for one second

They are propaganda. I was unaware of the dislike and distrust for Vilsack before this post. Is he disliked because of his association with Clinton, or did it precede his choice for president?

[Imagevision]

53. CNN: refusing to investigate also helped promote the WMD'S theory for invading Iraq also, I don't

trust CNN either.

[jenmito]

27. I just saw it, too, and he said in the LAST 10 of 11 polls she's ahead...

meaning the last 10 most recent IMO, with the 11th being the most recent. You know, how some posters here post polls that show a bunch of polls, but each one days or a week and more ago.

[Debi]

3. This isn't something 'new and exciting' that Obama just started doing

Every candidate has asked to be the second choice if they can't be the caucus-goers first choice.

[calteacherguy]

7. I never said it was. nt

[Boojatta]

10. If he wins Iowa, then can he sell it and use the money for his campaign?

[Debi]

11. HEY!

:mad:

[calteacherguy]

12. If he wins Iowa, he will quickly surpass Clinton in $$$

Right now, they are about even in total fundraising.

[Tellurian]

17. Obama's burn rate for advertising is double that of Clintons..

I guess, because she and her husband have (gasp) "experience" about such things..

[earthlover]

26. Iowans don't want experience and more of the same...they want change!

[Tellurian]

31. Hillary offers both..change and experience. No other candidate does..

and she can produce. I'm sure they know what production is all about!

[Zueda]

51. Sure...Just Ask Walmart. n/t

[Imagevision]

56. Hillary tried reforming healthcare and failed only to be bought out by special interests to

shut up! (or remain silent)

[Imagevision]

55. Change! that's the ticket! so fed up with the same ole BS in politics, they're

all the same until they get caught. Obama is breath of fresh freegin air!!!

[durrrty libby]

37. NO, because a few days later she will win in NH, an actual primary state

[calteacherguy]

39. Obama will take NH. I'd be willing to bet money on it. nt

[durrrty libby]

40. Put your money where your mouth is

http://www.intrade.com/

[calteacherguy]

45. Ironically, I just registered at that site.

I'm going to put money on Obama winning the nom...when the value goes up, I'm going to sell and donate the winnings to the campaign.

I can't find anywhere where there is betting for who will win a primary though. Let me know if you find anything.

[earthlover]

24. If he wins Iowa, he will go into NH with a barrage of media attention

Need I remind you that at this point in 03, Kerry was hugging 4% in the polls, was considered doomed, was about to remortgage the house to pay for a last-ditch desperation attempt at winning iowa? He even basically shut down his NH operations!

So figure it out for yourself! Obama is way ahead of Kerry in 03. If Obama wins there is no reason not to beleive he will go into NH with at least a similar amount of momentum as Kerry did after winning Iowa.

Then, if he wins NH, as state in Hillary's neighborhood and long assumed to be Hillary's...then it is on to SC.

In SC, there is a large black vote. Many have so far been loyal to hillary. However, if Obama looks like he could actually win, don't bet against a major defection to Obama. Not to mention the momentum he would have from winning NH.

He wins all three...can any Hillary supporter explain to me how Hillary could recover from THAT?

[Tellurian]

33. getting carried away with delusions is no way to speculate on the race..

Win all three...puleeze! :rofl:

[calteacherguy]

46. I believe Obama will win Iowa, NH, and the Nom.

And I'm willing to bet money on it.

[ClarkUSA]

19. Sure he is, for the reason you mentioned and more.

David Yepsen, the dean of Iowa politics, says:

'Even so, Yepsen says he detects a shift in the mindset of Iowa Democrats that may bode well for Obama and may pose problems for Clinton. I asked him
to evaluate the Clinton argument on behalf of her experience versus Obama’s appeal based on change.

"I think experience is important, but I think caucus goers are weighing the value of experience versus a fresh face and turning the page. And it’s, I think,
a close call. But right now, fresh face is starting to outweigh experience. Too many Democrats think she (Clinton) has too many negatives, too many
polarizing things in her past. They don’t want to go back to the past."'

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3749668

[petersjo02]

32. Don't believe a thing Yepsen says

He quit making sense about 30 years ago.

[durrrty libby]

38. What happened to him, besides looking a tad addled?

[Debi]

44. 'They' got to him

:rofl:

[ClarkUSA]

48. ROFL

:thumbsup:

[durrrty libby]

49. Fermented corn ?

[ClarkUSA]

47. I guess you didn't believe him when he lauded Clinton's debate performance last weekend?

Yeah, he wasn't making much sense, I agree.

[Tellurian]

35. And the moon "may" be made of Swiss cheese...and

I "think", I "detect", I "think".. :rofl:

You've gotta do better than "one" politico speaking for the entire state! :rofl:

[illinoisprogressive]

42. hillary has virtually no second support.

[illinoisprogressive]

43. Wasn't Vilsack the guy who claimed Hillary to be the Face of Foreign Policy in the 90s! lol

[ClarkUSA]

50. Yes he is...

And Obama will win.

[suston96]

52. This is why........

"This is why Barack Obama recently asked a Dodd supporter in Iowa if he could please be her second choice."

....This is why the "primary primacy" of Iowa's "first in the nation" is utter nonsense, but unfortunately, very real.

With what is happening in Iowa in no way reflecting what is happening in 49 other states, how can and why does Iowa have such prominence?

15%? First choice - second choice? WTF! This is a democratic process?

[ilovesunshine]

57. I agree, it's a joke.

It's amazing that one state could determine an election, regardless of whether the 49 other states agree with it or not.

[Colobo]

54. When Obama wins the Dem nomination, America will win.