Clinton would lose us Florida.

[cali]

In Match-ups with Clinton, Florida Voters Now Tilt Toward GOP
Monday, November 19, 2007

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the presidential race in Florida shows former Big Apple Mayor Rudy Giuliani with a modest lead over Senator Hillary Clinton of 46% to 41%. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney leads the former First Lady 46% to 39%. For Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson has a nine point edge 47% to 38% while Arizon Senator John McCain leads by ten, 48% to 38%.

These numbers flip the scenario Rasmussen Reports witnessed in an August poll of the race in Florida. Then, Clinton enjoyed a five-point edge on Giuliani and double-digit leads over Thompson, McCain, and Romney. Another change: today a lot more voters prefer a third option and express support for Some Other Candidate.

It’s interesting to note the consistency of the numbers regardless of the Republican candidate matched against Clinton. All the GOP hopefuls earn between 46% and 48% of the vote while Clinton attracts 38% to 41%.

A separate survey of the Florida Primary shows Clinton leading all Democrats by a wide margin and Giuliani leading Republicans in a more competitive environment.

Clinton is viewed favorably by 45% of Florida voters, unfavorably by 54%. Thompson is viewed favorably by 56%, Giuliani by 58%, Romney by 52%, McCain by 51%.

<snip>

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/florida/florida_2008_presidential_election

[LeftCoast]

1. It's strange. FL has been trending more red.

I would have thought it would start to head the other direction by now.

[derby378]

4. You can blame Katherine Harris and the Brooks Brothers mob for that...

The repercussions of 2000 will stay with Florida for a long time.

Besides, it looks like the Democratic Party apparatus in Florida is currently in shambles. They're taking the DNC to court on December 5 over the quest for an earlier Presidential primary date.

[The Backlash Cometh]

34. Florida will not be completely Democratic, in a national "Democratic" definition

kind of way, until you destroy the real estate's industry control on the political environment here. It corrupts both parties.

[opihimoimoi]

5. The repetitious smearing/denigration of DEMs have taken hold...just as they did in the past

The GOP have nothing Positive .....

Only thing left to do is LIE CHEAT STEAL...negatively....

If the Country sucks for the GOP Crap...then we will deserve another 8 years of FUCK UPs...

[onehandle]

6. The top half and central core of Florida is basically an extension of Mississippialabamageorgia.

The Florida GOP improved voting access in those areas and crapified voting access for liberal areas.

I'd write off Florida for a while.

[papau]

27. Election theft can not be stopped without mandatory random audits - and the GOP

will win Florida regardless of the polling - indeed if they win it legitimately that would be ironic.

[1corona4u]

28. I don't even understand your comment...

Florida has been red as long as I have lived here; about 16 years;

[last_texas_dem]

53. On the Presidential level, they looked to be turning purple for a while

They voted for Clinton in '96 and (technically) for Gore in '00. And, until the '04 elections, they had two Democratic Senators, which was pretty significant. But it seems like in recent elections they've been turning a little "redder" again. The state legislature is pretty heavily Repug, isn't it?

[saltpoint]

2. For this week or so, that may be the outcome reflected in the polling %s, but

next week could be different, and after Giuliani places at no better than 3rd in Iowa and no better than 4th in New Hampshire, Floridians will have reason to reassess their presidential preferences.

IMO, in that reassessment, Rudy Giuliani will no longer be a first choice for many Republican voters, and a gradual rise in Democrats' polling numbers versus Republican candidates will favor the blue ticket over the red ticket.

[JeanGrey]

18. You are missing the point, respectfully. The poll shows

Hillary getting her ass handed to her by ANY other candidate, Thompson, McCain even. She's in deep trouble in Florida and the rest of the south.

[enough already]

21. Why is anyone surprised by this?

She has no chance of flipping any red state. We're watching a suicide march right before our eyes.

[JeanGrey]

26. I am afraid I agree. And have from the beginning.

Hillary isn't going to do it, and we're going to lose, and that scares the shit out of me.

[saltpoint]

31. Calendars move forward, however. So do voters' perceptions of

candidacies.

I stand by my claims. The polling cited here is a snapshot, not a gauge for long-term assessment of political appeal.

It's of the moment, for the moment, and by the moment.

[MethuenProgressive]

3. The Edwards, GOP, and Obama attacks are working.

Rovian tactics, albeit disgusting, have been shown to achive success.

[Pawel K]

37. You need to stop trolling, this is getting absurd.

You don't make HRC supporters look good by constantly posting this bullshit.

[Perry Logan]

7. Rasmussen. Yea, right.

[cali]

8. DSB posts Rasmussen tracking polls here daily

I don't see you complaining about that. The whining about polls has always struck me as ridiculous.

[Perry Logan]

13. "Rasmussen is a Republican firm that regularly asks slanted questions..."

Rasmussen is a Republican firm that regularly asks slanted questions and produces pro-Republican results through a questionable poll weighting method.

Rasmussen regularly has the wildest outliers of all on Bush job approval (typically about 5-7% higher than the average of other polls).

From the start of 2005, Rasmussen has weighted to make Rep and Dem party ID equal at 37%. Yet his table of unweighted data since start 2004 shows that in every month, the Dem figure exceeded the Rep figure, often significantly. This weighting introduces a persistent bias which can be quantified if you know the cross-tab data.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/3/17/11424/8443

[cali]

14. you didn't answer my question. Rasmussen gets posted here

all the time by pro-Clinton people. Why don't I ever see you objecting then?

[ChairmanAgnostic]

35. hee hee, because cherry picking is how HIll keeps that glow of

inevitability and perfection that she claims

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. I'm Not Going To Be Posting Much AnyMore But You're Right

The reason I'm not going to be posting much anymore is because I don't easily walk away from altercations in real life or on the net once they are started... So, I have learned to just not start them or put myself in positions where they will occur... It's also why I stopped posting on a lot of my other favorite sites, most of which have to do with sports...

I suspect the beating HRC has taken in the press has lowered her numbers a bit ... We will learn whether this is an aberration or a trend...

Oh, somebody up thread said Central Florida is similar to Mississippi... No... Orlando has a Democratic mayor, an openly gay commission member, and a gay rights ordinance in thew city...
And non- majorities are very much part of the process... Having lived here since I was eleven but having traveled extensively I wouldn't say Orlando is San Francisco or Los Angeles but it sure isn't Tupelo or Biloxi...

Happy Thanksgiving and peace...

P.S. Rasmussen seems to have a GOP bias but elections are the true test of whether polls are right...We will know when we get closer to the election...

[cali]

17. I'm sorry to hear you won't be posting much

You're one of my favorite posters here. You make a ton of sense. In any case, I hope you too have wonderful holidays.

[Forkboy]

41. Didn't see you weeping when they favored Hillary.

You're as predictable as the sun rising, only not as welcomed.

[tekisui]

9. Would she win Ohio?

If she could, we don't necessarily need to win Florida.

[cali]

10. I don't know.

And as people have pointed out, the dem party in FL is not in good shape, but I do think Clinton's high negatives, not just in FL but across the board, are worthy of concern. Yes, I believe she could win, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't take note of her negatives.

[tekisui]

15. Her negatives are of concern.

She lights this place up with negativity. Not to say one side right and the other wrong, but she does divide.

50% + 1. Does she have the +1?

I think that the best time to deal with Hillary's high negative is now, in the primaries.

[enough already]

23. She doesn't have the 50 nationally and never will n/t

[JeanGrey]

20. I have good friends in Ohio. They are very worried about

Hillary being nominated. Ohio has trended more blue since the voting disaster of 2004, but from what I'm hearing, Hillary is once again hated SEVERELY by many in Ohio.

If she cannot take Ohio and Florida and loses the rest of the south, which I fully think she will, plus other states like Oklahoma and Utah, well, there it is.

[Capn Sunshine]

33. Rightly or Wrongly she takes blame for NAFTA in Ohio

Ohio and MI were devastated by the net effect of NAFTA, and Hill takes the blame since we don't have Bill to kick around any more.

[JeanGrey]

51. Very true, and that is the reason most given to me in discussions,

especially with Michigan. People are still pissed about NAFTA (can't say I blame them).

[bullimiami]

11. i absolutely do not believe it. they had to rig the election for w.

ghouliani is no bush nor is his team, and he doesnt have a brother on the inside.
clinton is stronger than gore was and way stronger than kerry.

i think she would beat creepy rudy handily and will still beat him even with the shenanegins and dirty machines.

[itsrobert]

12. What else is new? n/t

n/t

[leftynyc]

19. I just glanced at the link and

I don't see where the matchups with the other dem candidates are. Or did they just do Hillary against the pubs? My question is, obviously, does any dem win us Florida?

[depakid]

22. More than just Florida...

Her high negatives will be a factor in many other states- and will cost us all state and local candidates and issues, too.

[enough already]

24. We need to ignore the obvious and continue with the coronation

Remember, this isn't about any of us and certainly not about the nation. We must play nice and let her cost us this opportunity.

[cali]

25. there isn't a coronation.

The race is competitive and fluid. Why repeat a mindless meme?

[Evergreen Emerald]

29. No: voting machines will loose us Florida

its rigged

[kenfrequed]

39. Worse

The scrubbing of the polls done up by choicepoint and Harris was never actually corrected. The whiting out of the voting rolls will continue thanks to the complacent media.

[bluedog]

30. this poll Nov 13..shes got high poll numbers

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/florida.html




Democratic Polls
Strategic Vision
11/13/2007
Florida
w/o Al Gore
Added: 11/17/07
Margin of Error = 5.5%

Hillary Clinton 47%
Barack Obama 27%
John Edwards 8%
Bill Richardson 4%
Joe Biden 2%
Chris Dodd 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Unsure 10%
Source

[Pawel K]

38. Thats a poll for primaries, not for the national election.

[Imagevision]

32. Hillary is beginning to look like the least likely candidate to beat any repug

in the 2008 election. Obama is looking more favorable with each passing week.

[Pawel K]

36. Okay cali, who stole your account and then posted this?

;)

[cali]

40. Do you realize how many threads and posts

I've made criticizing Clinton? Guess not. scores of them. But I don't call her names, or buy into the Clinton is a repub bullshit- I criticize her on issues and other germane topics. And I will continue to defend her from the bullshit she's too often attacked with.

[Pawel K]

42. Easy now, it was a joke.

But I do think you have been a little more critical of Clinton in your latest posts than before. I'm curious as to what changed, if anything. Maybe its just my perspective, maybe not.

[cali]

43. I really haven't

you can go back and do a search if you want to waste some time. But, I gotta admit the bullshit attacks on her really rub me the wrong way, and I have defended her against those. And there are so many of them. She's always been my last choice in the primaries, and I've said that repeatedly. Still, I don't think she repuke light or fascist light or will take the U.S. to war in Iran. I suppose I haven't been defending her as much, just because the onslaught of paranoid and erroneous crap is so momentous that it seems pointless to do more than make a stab at it every so often.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

44. This is quite obviously a bum poll

regardless of whose on top. The republican sample has to be immense to the point of absurdity.

Not other state or national poll ever shows all the GOP hopefuls within an eight point range, let alone two. And Clinton is not losing to Romney in FL... that's silly. (Given what is consistent in the other zillion polls taken this year)

Bottom line: If this sample included other Dem candidates, they would have lost by equal margins

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

47. I will retract part of this observation in light of the Mason Dixon Poll

http://www.floridacapitalnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071119/CAPITOLNEWS/71119017

It seems that having the republicans campaign in Florida while our candidates have promised not to is having terrible effects in that state.

Wonder if the same thing is going on in Michigan.

[AX10]

45. Florida is almost lost for the Democrats on the national level.

We better concentrate on Ohio, Virginia, West Virginia, and the southwest region.

[weeve]

46. Not only Florida ...

... but the entire election. Not to mention many Cngressional seats. With decades of a conservative Supreme Court at stake, this is NO TIME to go with the least electable Democrat. Don't people understand this ?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

48. Your confusion is evident

the candidate who does best in match-up polls is not "the least electable Democrat"

[BenDavid]

49. Well gee folks....if gore would have won Tenn in 00

he would have been president and to hell with florida. HRC does not need obama to win Illinois. HRC will pickup a few states that niether gore or kerry carried, and those will be West Virginia.....La. Nevada....New Mexico, and she will carry all the blue states as kerry in 04 and pick up those and it is a good shot she will get Ohio and if that is the case even with those I wrote HRC will not need Ohio or Florida....

Do the math...

Ben David

[NewYorkerfromMass]

50. Well that is the question. Can Clinton lose any state Kerry won?

I can't think of any, and I think she can win Ohio.

[JCMach1]

52. Keep in mind Florida has moved into Recession

It will be deep and bad there by Nov. 2008.

Service states like Florida enter national recessions early and get out sooner... IT will really still be in trouble by election day.