You can get about 4:1 odds on Obama winning Iowa. I'd take that bet any day.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

I'd put Obama's chance of winning Iowa in the 35%-45%

22%-27% seems cheap for Obama.

(Edwards is at about 17% and Hillary about 61%)

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp?selConID=483464

[geek tragedy]

1. That is a really good buy.

It also shows just how high Clinton's expectations are now.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. Check this out: Romeny 56%, Huckabee 44%

Intertesting that people think Huckabee is twice as likely to win Iowa as Obama.

[aquart]

4. No, it shows what the bookies expect.

And since their incomes depend on their judgment, one tends to respect the bookies' opinions.

[geek tragedy]

6. Bookie who have never been to Iowa. n/t

[aquart]

8. Then take the odds and make your fortune.

[Imagevision]

2. I wonder what the vegas odds makers put it at?

[durrrty libby]

5. The charts for the most likely nominee have Hillary locking it

Clinton 72 Obama 15 Rudy 43


http://www.intrade.com/

[Basileus Basileon]

7. Those are pretty worthless. They just show common wisdom.

Not to invoke 2004, but you'll see they don't have any prognosticatory powers:

[NewYorkerfromMass]

9. Kerry was at 3% in Zogby early December

right before Saddam's capture. And I must say that was the beginning of the turning point for Dean/Kerry, because Dean made the mistake of saying "Saddam's capture does not make America safer", which while on the face true, was a political mistake as a statement. People began looking at Kerry with a new eye.