Immigration issue is perilous for Dems: GOP can't win if Hispanics tip several states Democratic

[DeepModem Mom]

WSJ: Immigration Is the Question
How '08 Hopefuls Answer
Could Take Them Far, Perhaps
By JUNE KRONHOLZ
November 19, 2007; Page A6

....The debate over how to deal with illegal immigrants split the Republican Party two years ago, infuriating its social-conservative base and driving away Hispanic voters. It could be even more perilous for Democrats. Democratic strategists believe that Hispanic voters could swing a decisive handful of states -- including Florida, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada -- to the Democrats in 2008, ensuring the election of a Democratic president and cementing a Democratic majority for years to come. But the party's blue-collar, middle-income and African-American supporters are increasingly angry about illegal immigration, much of it Hispanic.

Democrats "are pretty jumpy on the issue," says Rep. Luis Gutierrez, an Illinois Democrat who pushed for immigration overhaul in the House. "They would prefer to allow the Republicans to shepherd the Hispanic votes into the Democratic column without having to scare away a single other voter themselves," he says. That's not likely to happen. "This election could turn on this issue if we don't handle it intelligently," says Connecticut Sen. Christopher Dodd, a Democratic presidential candidate. After a recent Iowa City foreign-policy speech, four of the 30 questions passed up to him from the audience were about immigration.

In a Nov. 5 Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, 11% of adults -- and 4% of Democratic voters -- said illegal immigration is their top priority. But members of that minority, organized on the Internet, have created political turmoil by flooding lawmakers' offices with faxes and regularly raising the issue on the campaign trail. Similarly, a November University of Iowa poll shows just 2.4% of Iowa Democrats consider immigration as the issue "most important" to determining their vote, but 85% said a candidate's position on immigration is important or very important to them.

In one sign of the tension within the Democratic caucus, Hispanic-American lawmakers were furious last week that Democratic leaders hadn't derailed Republican efforts to include a limited English-only measure in a budget bill.

Hispanics made up 8% of the national vote in 2006, but their growing numbers and anger with the Republicans over such talk could mean electoral gold for the Democrats. NDN, a nonprofit Democratic think tank, predicts "there is no reasonable (Republican) road map to victory in 2008" if growing Hispanic populations tip several key states into the Democratic column. But a pro-immigration policy risks alienating other Democratic constituencies. Rep. Gutierrez blames the weakening U.S. economy for fanning immigration anger among working-class voters. "It's easy because people are afraid" about wages, mortgages and jobs, he says....

***

Republicans, meanwhile, see illegal immigration as a campaign bonanza because it motivates their base voters while diverting attention from the Iraq war and sowing discord among the Democrats....

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119543645830297550.html?mod=politics_first_element_hs

[polichick]

1. Hispanics who came here legally also want something done about...

...illegal immigration. imo the question for politicians is, "Are you going to protect our borders and respect our nation's laws ~ or are you going to pander to those businesses and individuals who would toss our laws out the window?"

[inthebrain]

8. You don't fuckin know that

What a load of fucking bullshit that is.

Our immigration policy used to be geared toward unifying families. If you had family members living here you got first dibs on the visas, green cards etc. People who have immigrated here with family members living in other countries are the most effected by these bullshit immigration restrictions and high cost.

[polichick]

9. Actually, there's an immigrant right here on DU who came legally...

...and has posted about the problems of illegal immigration ~ he/she makes a very good case.

[inthebrain]

11. You have NO CLUE who that person really is

And what you are doing is stereotyping; ie because one feels that way then they ALL must feel that way.

There was another poster who tryed playing that game on this board a few of us were in discussion with. This person started off claiming they immigrated here and not even ten posts later mentioned they WERE FUCKING BORN HERE.

[polichick]

12. Doesn't matter who I point to - you're completely reactionary...

There have been many discussions about this on msnbc ~ you are mistaken if you believe that all those who came legally are supportive of illegal immigration. Most American citizens (no matter where they came from) consider this a huge problem ~ which is why it will be an issue in the election.

[inthebrain]

13. No, I have actually spent tons of time really researching this issue

I've also come across a ton of snake oil salesmen on this board.

And MSNBC certainly is not known for offering any balance whatsoever on any topic. Nor do they set any benchmarks for journalistic integrity.

[RaleighNCDUer]

2. Illegal immigration is just the symptom.

The sickness is NAFTA and our economic policies that reward companies that screw people on both sides of the border.

If Mexico had a strong economy, it's people would not want to move here -- think about it, would YOU want to move to a place where you are not wanted, not appreciated, and not understood (sounds like my last marriage!)? Where people speak a strange language, have strange customs, and resent your very existance?

But if Mexico has a strong economy, there would be no profit in moving factories down there. And besides, as things are moving manufacturing south tightens up the labor force here, forcing workers to compete downward - adding undocumented workers into the mix just increases that existing downward pressure, though they are by no means entirely responsible for it.

Forget immigration as an issue - focus on the disastrous trade agreements that impoverish everyone but the bosses, and immigration will fix itself.

[RDANGELO]

3. Your wright , but people don't want to listen to that.

All a lot of people know is they see all these brown people. Their tribalistic instincts are taking over.

[Didereaux]

4. and if the Party goes for any sort of 'amnesty' they lose 4 times as many votes!

The Repugnants WANT this issue and in fact some have already said that this issue alone will assure the Repugnant victory...
unfortunely I think they are right.

Too few hispanics actually go to the polls, and there is absolutely NO indication this election will be different. Around 70% of American voters have been adamant about any sort of amnesty: none will be tolerated. The Democratic Party may have to displease some hispanic 'leaders', but in order to win they will have to do so.

That is all fact, that is all political reality and if enough Democrats reject that reality then the country is doomed to another Repugnant administration! Think looooong and hard about this.

[polichick]

5. Yes, it may piss off some Hispanic "leaders"...

But Hispanics who respected the law and are now citizens don't agree with those "leaders" ~ and they're the ones going to the polls.

I agree ~ Dems have a death wish if they don't listen to the people on this one.

[RaleighNCDUer]

6. Of course, you're right

because our immigration law has never split up documented/undocumented families, or deported hispanics who have been here since infancy and shipped them off to countries where they don't speak the language, or forced American citizens to leave the country because they still depended on their undocumented parents who are being deported...

This is a civil rights issue. And it is just plain wrong to penalize the people who came here to work when it is WE who created the situation in the first place.

As I said above, deal with the neo-lib economic imperialism of NAFTA and other disastrous trade deals, and the problem will end. While campaigning, ignore, dodge, or deflect all immigration questions and focus on trade deals - the problems will resolve themselves without ANY draconian immigration measures.

[Didereaux]

14. if you actually want all that, you support in whole Bushs' policy! Now do you want it?

If the policies you want are so beneficial, and the corporations are supporting it...you have the first verifiable miracle in the history of mankind!

Naivete, rose-colored glasses and simple self delusion will not better the conditions of the illegal immigrant...they are only postponing them for a more horrendous fate.

No, I am not attempting to change your opinion, your school are zealots and as such cannot be reasoned with, but what I say is just for the record, so to speak.

[RaleighNCDUer]

16. WTF?

Did you read my post?

The corporations DOM'T want what I espouse - they LOVE it exactly the way it is. NAFTA et al guarantee cheap labor on both sides of the border, it devastates the economies south of the border which drives the immigration in the first place. Once the immigrants are here, they are used to undercut US labor.

So intead of calling 11 million immigrants 'criminals' what we need to do is end the republican-fashioned neo-lib economic policies and get back to sane agreements that help people, rather than create poverty and support oligarchies. Give the Mexicans and others a reason to stay home rather than come here.

This nativist crap should have gone out in the 1850s.

[inthebrain]

7. Lets not make the mistake that because Anti immigrant activists are the loudest

On this issue that they own this issue.

They don't.

[Didereaux]

15. ALL polls have shown ALL voters 2 to 1 AGAINST any form of amnesty!

[RaleighNCDUer]

17. And in 1860, 9 out of 10 southerners opposed ending slavery

and since the popular will is paramont, they should have been allowed to keep their 'peculiar institution'.

The majority is not automatically right. There is something called 'morality' involved as well.

Start with understanding the issues, the origins of the problems, and then deal with those. Immigration is merely a symptom, not the disease.

[Didereaux]

18. and almost the same rate of northerners...whats your point?

[RaleighNCDUer]

19. Read my post. The point is clearly stated.

For anyone who isn't a bigoted asshole.

[ellisonz]

10. Comprehensive immigration reform that is not hyper-punitive.

That ought to be where we stand!