I may sound like a Republican, but

[spooky3]

I am pissed about the performance of the stock market in the 7+ years since our "MBA President" took over. Like many people, I am trying very hard to save for retirement, doing what all the financial people say to do, to invest in fairly conservative mutual funds, etc. and I am SICK of how many months during this moronic and corrupt regime that my funds have lost more money than I have put in that same month! There have been so many of these months since 2000 that many of us are going to have to postpone retirement if we can, to save money to make up for the losses. I am sure the same thing can be said for people saving to buy a house or put their kids through college.

WHERE did people ever get the notion that Republicans manage the economy better than do Democrats? Or that they manage companies (like mortgage lenders) more effectively? And did it ever occur to any of these Rethug supporters that if we had more effective enforcement of laws, we wouldn't have so many meltdowns in various sectors due to scandals, safety issues, unethical lending practices, etc.?

The stock market has been way too volatile (or declining) for probably half of this idiot's reign, and there is no end in sight. It's just another reason to get him the hell out of there, and the party he rode in on.

[hobbit709]

1. Republicans make money by stealing YOUR money.

[C_U_L8R]

2. Democratic party has a MUCH better economic record

These GOP clowns couldn't manage a piggybank without busting into it.

I'd give anything for the prosperity of the Clinton years.

The proof is in your pocketbook.

[spooky3]

3. notice how their candidates don't ask the Reagan question any more -

"are you better off now than you were 7 years ago?"

[C_U_L8R]

5. well i sure hope our folks ask that question

loudly and often !!!

[underpants]

10. I read recently in a book by Johnathan Chait...

okay it is a DLC'er book but I already knew about the Northwest Mutual study as well as the other one Conason cites in "Big Lies" but Chait mentions something I had not run across before.

Tax CUTS are usually accompanied by spending INCREASES
and the inverse it true.

Republicans have historically been in some position of power to take credit for tax cuts (usually net cuts) but then they spend like Arab teenagers.

Oh and the other pertinent stat here is that when Dems run the House they spend about $35 Million more per Dem district than Republican ones-when Republicans run the House THEY spend about $63 Million more on their districts. but you probably already knew that one.

[spooky3]

11. those are interesting stats.

[underpants]

13. The Northwest Mutual study and others

NW Mutual studied the S&P 500 1929 to 1999-Dem Presidents 16.9% gain Republicans 14.2% <--- didn't include the Hoover admin or Nixon's second term. FDR, Truman, Johnson, and Clinton being the highest periods of gain.

Stock Trader's Almanac studied the Dow Jones -Dems 13.4% gain Republicans 8.1%

Slate studied the S&P 500 over the last century as of 2002- Dems 12.3% Republicans 8% <--this included all administrations

Those are right out of Conason's book pages 85-86

[spooky3]

15. thanks, I should get that book at the library

[underpants]

20. One of the best political books I have ever read

Fantastic

[femrap]

24. And something else that I've noticed....

The repugnants and traditional media have trained people to demand TAX CUTS....however, the biggest hit that Americans are taking in the pocketbook is LOSS OF PURCHASING POWER...that is the biggest 'TAX' of all.

But that is never mentioned. And the decline of the dollar...I rarely watch TV news anymore because it pisses me off so much...but has Brian Williams or the other talking idiots ever mentioned what that is doing to us???

Last night, I did watch Brian and was just flabbergasted that he spent so much time talking about their NBC stage set....who the fuck gives a shit about where the damn program is set? No wonder I quit watching.

[underpants]

26. I don't watch anymore either

It doesn't piss me off as much as it is some other reality.

The book by Chait is actually about supplyside economics and how faulty it is.

[sandyd921]

4. My only hope

for ever retiring, given the non-growth of my 403 B account (like a 401 K, but in the non-profit sector), is that the better management (including essential reforms of the current health care non-system), regulation of corporations, and public investments (e.g., infrastructure, renewable energy) will stimulate the economy enough to allow a few years of growth so that I can retire by 70 (if I'm lucky)!

[Union Thug]

17. My hope is in the Washington State Lottery...

...Otherwise, it's whistle while I work until I drop dead. Great country we live in.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Two Points

1) The record indicates that the markets perform better under Democrats...That's the appeal I made to my conservative friends in 00...

2) Markets are extremely volatile...While the trends are upward there are periods when the markets don't move at all or take decades to go from high to low to new high... The markets were at the same place in 1948 as they were in 1929 and in the same place as they were in 1980 that they were in 1966*...



*I am doing this from memory but am confident I have the trends right...

[spooky3]

9. I believe I have seen the same research and that you're right.

It's really costing us.

[tomg]

7. Republicans don't manage the economy. They

want The Invisible Hand Of The Market do it which is the "intelligent design of economics." Shit happens. We can't explain it. Must be a big magic hand somewhere, and it will all be okay eventually. But to make sure things turn out okay, you have to let the Invisible Hand do what it damn well pleases. Well, right now, like you, Spooky 3, Mr. Invisible Hand seems to have decided that I am going to be working at a Wendy's when I am 97, after which Mr. Invisible hand will have decided that I should be recycled as medium grade dog food.

[spooky3]

8. Well at least then you'll be in the "middle class"! And I guess

if Mr. Hand has a firm grasp on things, Ben Bernanke should give up his job too, since the Rethugs don't think he does anything. And the lobbyists for Big Corp. can give back their salaries and move out of DC, etc., etc.

[Union Thug]

18. And that invisible hand is connected to an invisible tentacle, which

in turn is connected the wealthiest among us, and their not no invisible interests.

[tomg]

21. That's pretty much what I

was thinking.

[femrap]

25. Remember the movie 'Soylent Green?' nt

[Froward69]

12. To republicans the dollar is devalued when

EVERYONE else has one. Somehow wealth just doesn't feel right to them when others have money.

[The Backlash Cometh]

14. MBA = short term results, long term disaster.

Nobody expects to stick around for twenty years or more. They jump ship, right before it crashes into the reef.

[mtnsnake]

16. We're working twice as hard and making less money for our efforts under this administration

My small business has been significantly affected by the tremendous decline of the American dollar under George asshole Bush. Living near the Canadian border in northern NY, part of my business was always done by buying a certain percentage of inventory in Canada. During the Clinton years, for example, our dollar ranged from being 40% stronger to 55% stronger than the Canadian dollar. As soon as Bush took over, the dollar started its tremendous decline, and for the first time in something like 50 years, the Canadian dollar hit an all time high recently. It is actually worth more than ours right now and that hasn't happened in many decades. BTW, kudos to the Canadians for their strong dollar as of late. Anyway, our dollar isn't just weak against the Canadian dollar, either, but it's weak all over the world from what I hear. My business is just a small business and I've been making up for my Canadian losses by adjusting some other aspects of my business, but it was a lot easier the way we had it when our dollar was strong under previous administrations, especially the Clinton admin.

Like a lot of people in this country, we're working twice as hard as we used to and making less money for our efforts. As you get older, I always thought the opposite was supposed to happen, but thanks to George pisshead Bush, it isn't. He is making a mockery of the American Dream, unless you're in the upper 1% of the people who make 90% of all the money out there.

[BeyondGeography]

19. The stock market as a source of savings for individuals is one of those preposterous notions

that has entered the mainstream courtesy of the Republicans. Anyone with the slightest bit of reflection would choose defined benefit pensions over the prospect of speculative stock market gains. "Owning your retirement" is the biggest fianncial dodge ever perpetrated by corporate America, and now most of us are stuck playing the game, which is a loser. The market will always be an insider game; profit manipulation on a day-to-day, if not hour-to-hour, basis is the way it's played. The individual can hope to be on the right side of things in the long run, but, as you've seen, it's a stressful business, and one that can actually make many of us poorer (and certainly more dependent on our unreliable employers) in the end.

[smoogatz]

22. Dollar Cost Averaging

I know over the short term it can be frustrating, but there's almost no way your mutual funds haven't increased in value since '00, given the DJIA's almost 20% increase over that period. It's not as good as the 30% we had a month ago, but 20% return on your money over six years is still a very, very strong performance—one I'd take every time. If you're putting the same amount of money into your funds every month, the periods of volatility actually work in your favor: when the fund is down, you're buying more shares for the same amount of money; when it goes up again, your profits are therefore greater. This is kind of fundamental stuff. Volatility is scary, but as long as the trendline's going up (which it will as the economy expands), stock prices will, in general and over the long term, continue to rise.

That said, there are a lot of troubling and unpredictable externals in play right now in terms of oil supply, geopolitical crises, looming fiscal/banking crises, climate crises, etc., any or all of which could easily trigger a sudden and catastrophic global market crash. We've had most of our money parked in (relatively) safe bonds and cash for several years now; I'm thinking about buying gold, although I'm somewhat late to the game, and storing gold coins is a pain in the ass.

On edit: Bush's policies do spell long term trouble for the markets, obviously: the U.S. is in a much weaker debt/currency position than it was six years ago, and a big recession is now almost inevitable as a result. Watch out for rising interest rates, too, as U.S. debt becomes less and less attractive to foreign buyers.

[spooky3]

28. Oh, they have, but the stock market has done MUCH worse than historical

average during this time. 20% over 6 years is NOT good performance. Historically, equities return 8% *annually* on average, not 20%/6 = approx. 3.3%, which is barely over inflation during this time. And, investing solely in equities is not considered prudent for most investors, as investors are told to diversify particularly as they age. So returns are lower for most balanced funds.

The point I am trying to make with a micro example is that there is a macro problem that Democrats need to talk more about.

[CK_John]

23. Anyone who pays someone else to manage their money is decision challenged or to lazy to become an

informed investor. You gave away your money and now you are whining that they treated it like their money.

[spooky3]

27. uh, way to miss the point entirely

I didn't give away anything. The problem is not the choices I made, but rather the state of the stock market and, recently, many alternative investments such as REITs, and how badly they have done since Bush took office, compared to historical performance, despite the Republicans' claims of economic competence. I invested in funds that are highly rated but conservative, and paid nothing other than the low fund manager fees that are required for anyone investing in these funds, which are highly diversified. Apparently you are unaware of the events that have been occurring that have affected the stock market since 2000, so you may want to bone up a little. And you may not be aware that the vast majority of Americans has at least some 401k or other money in the market, so this is a widespread issue.

Check this out, for example:

http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/index.cfm?event=showavgDecades&decade=2000

[CK_John]

31. It is a widespread issue because people did not manage their own money, but

fell for a 401 scheme where you took a pay cut to buy your companies stock (many small copies gave this as the only choice) for a supposed penny savings on taxes. This all for a promise of I'll take care of you, I promise. Guess what, many of those companies are gone or their employees are now across the globe being paid with your 401k money.

If you have 401k get the hell out and roll it over into T-bills(at least they are gov secure)real TBills not a TBILL fund. Go online to the Federal Reserve site and do some homework and make a personal decision with your money and quit whining.

If the gov fails buy a stero can and a 30 cal rifle.

[AZ Criminal JD]

29. I think the problem is with your funds, not the market

My funds have done nicely in both Democratic and Republican administrations.

[spooky3]

30. uh, no, the problem is that since Bush is in office, the market's

performance on average has been far worse than its historical performance and the future is very uncertain due in part to Bush's mismanagement, yet Bush and friends still want to claim credit for being fabulous managers. If you made more than 8% per year during this entire time, on average, then you gambled on some investments that luckily paid off for you.

Check out the Dow, S&P 500 and other averages since he's been in office (and other DUer's posts here), and you will see what I mean.

I am using the micro example to make the macro point.

For example, see:

http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/index.cfm?event=showavgDecades&decade=2000

[CK_John]

32. All indications are that the market will crash bigtime. The decision is do you get out

now and preserve your capital or stay in and hope you don't lose everything.
It is that simple.

[Perry Logan]

33. Republicans are simply hard-wired to believe certain things. Nothing changes this.

[Captain Angry]

34. You just didn't invest properly.

Neither did I, but that's beside the point. :-)

Hindsight being 20/20, I've seen some wild trends where some major money has been made.

For instance, go look at returns on the stocks of companies that run prisons. It's shocking. I mean, last time I looked, the whole damn sector was up BIG.

A *LOT* of money has been made outside the market this time around. Private placements, LBOs, hedge funds, dark pools, and other techniques have moved a tremendous amount of money into and out of a lot of pockets.


No new mortgage techniques were created in the last few years. But some oldies were used with different customers. No-documentation, and negative amortization loans were available to people for years. But those people were generally making so much money that they didn't need to go through the application process and weren't going to be credit risks.

In the past, banks held a lot of the mortgages, they didn't really have the collateralized debt tools that are so popular now. CDOs are being written down, not because they've lost intrinsic value, but because the buyers of these funds are afraid of them. Even the AAA tranches in these CDOs are too scary even though they can be built into a nearly failsafe investment.

This all happened 10 years ago. And it's happening again. People that manage mutual funds or the finances for large corporations / insurance companies / municipalities are buying stuff they don't understand. This happened and put Barings bank out of business. They financed the Louisiana Purchase, and 10 years ago they died because of bad bets.

The stock market, and many mutual funds have certainly been volatile, a lot of assets were bid up because of the fake money that came from higher home prices. Every time you see some jackass on TV say that nobody saw this mortgage foreclosure mess coming, keep in mind that this information was public in the 90's, but so many people were making money, nobody wanted to hear it.

When you have banks telling appraisers that "If you aren't going to value the property at X, don't submit a report because we're not paying." Guess what happens. Appraiser says: I like food. So does my family. That house looks like it's worth X.


Why do people think that Republicans manage money better? Because they're told that all the time. Republicans say that Democrats are going to spend and tax. Yet, Republicans are spending like there is no tomorrow. They don't officially tax things, yet they divert the costs in other ways.

A Democrat is going to take office in 2008, and will watch a Republican take over in 2012 because they have to spend all of their time repairing the last 8 years. It's going to hurt. So the Republicans will sit back and say how the Democrats have been anti-business and taking money from unions who make stuff more expensive...

And the cycle continues...

I think the market is actually going to pull into a lower volume of trades, and become less volatile as the market tries to determine who's taking over in 2008. I'm not saying it's going to do well, just that it's going to get a little boring. Some companies are going to fail. Some people are going to make a lot of money off of the people who held the failing company's stock. But I still think things will calm down a bit.

[calteacherguy]

35. Uh...where have you been? The market has been doing well since March 2003. nt