We need to win these states - West Virginia, New Hampshire, Nevada

[ringmastery]

If we hold all the Gore states and win these three small states, we win the election.

We're also going to be competitive in Ohio, Florida, Missouri, and Arizona. If we win one of these states, we'll have some margin of error in case we lose Wisconsin or Iowa, probably our most vulnerable blue states.

I'm feeling good about our prospects. It won't be a blow out, but it looks like we should eke out a win.

The only wild card is the economy.

If by some miracle, we start producing hundreds of thousands of new jobs a month and Bush comes anywhere close to the 2.6 million number he pulled out of his ass, all bets are off.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. We should NOT rule out Virginia. Gore lost it by 7 points last time....

and it is not a real Southern State. We should attempt to take
this state too.

[carpetbagger]

2. WV is looking good.

I've not seen any polling, but I recently went back to the town I used to live in, which is in a county that was evenly split (I think Bush carried the county by about 50 votes). From what I hear, I'd imagine that there's been a tilt of several percent from 2000 towards the democrats.

Here's a good article from a neighboring county (that's been voting for the GOP for a long, long time). It's six months old, but I'd imagine that things haven't gone any better for the village idiot.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2003/09/30/in_wva_many_bush_backers_balk_at_87b_to_rebuild_iraq?mode=PF

On edit: The article says "This small city of about 15,000 was founded by a Revolutionary War hero." That's "hero" as in the guy got canned by Washington for showing up drunk at the battle of Germantown PA, and leading his troops in an attack on the rear of a fellow American brigade under the command of Anthony Wayne.

[4morewars]

3. LMAO

2.6 million jobs at wal-mart ??? mcdonalds??? Not gonna happen either way.
Anyway, back to your point. What about Florida?? We won that last time. Do you think they will pull the same shit again?? That would take some balls, even for these guys.
I guess my question is can we count on florida ??

[ringmastery]

6. I'm concerned about Florida

Jebby won reelection by 15%. I think it's tilted a little more republican since 2000.

[carpetbagger]

12. Florida would be the icing on the cake.

The most likely pickups, in my opinion, are in this order:

New Hampshire
Nevada
West Virginia
Arkansas
Ohio
Arizona
Missouri
Louisiana
Virginia
Florida

P.S. Notice that these targets are spread out, showing that there's not one strategy (e.g. "southern" or "northern") that will work.

[JPJones]

13. Gee, wouldn't it be nice if the VP was from...

New Hampshire. Nah, Nevada. Nope, West Virgina. Arkansas? Hmmm.

Notice that no one thinks North Carolina is realistic.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. Ohio seems to be a given for us at this point

I hear nothing but how badly the economy there has been and unemployment is high etc....

Another factor is the growing proportion of black and Latino voters and how the GOP would like to increase their share of them. It is this that is making states like Pennsylvania and FLorida increasingly difficult for them to win. Hence efforts such as the Estrada nomination to win points with minorities.
It is looking good for us.

[JPJones]

5. You can't assume we will win the Gore states

A new poll has Kerry only 4 points ahead of Bush in California.

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, New Mexico and Oregon will be even more competitive.

You can't start with 260 EV on the table. Kerry starts with 0 EV and needs to earn all 270.

[ringmastery]

9. I saw a poll that said Kerry was 17 points ahead

in California.

[King of New Orleans]

7. the list should be longer

Be aggressive. Arkansas, Louisiana, Virginia, heck maybe even places like Indiana, South Dakota, and Montana aren't out of play either (though the last two are small, they all add up)

[Maddy McCall]

10. I think La. may happen.

[JPJones]

11. If you live in one of these states

Get Tivo so you can fast forward through the Bush/Cheney ads that will play constantly for the next nine months.

Not safe
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, New Mexico and Oregon

Winnable
New Hampshire, Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Florida, Arizona and Nevada

If Virginia, Indiana, South Dakota or Montana are seriously in play (even just one or two of the four), Bush should reserve a moving van for Jan. 19, 2005.

[4morewars]

14. I already told the wife...

turn the tv off till november. We are in michigan , and we are a BLUE state, baby !!!! We have lost close to 300,000 jobs here since shithead stole the white house !!!! There's no way he gets Michigan, over my dead body!!! I shit you not !!!

[ButterflyBlood]

15. South Dakota is NOT

and I'd very suprised if Indiana was.

[Maddy McCall]

8. As long as Bush pursues Yucca Mt., Nevada will be ours.

[Punkingal]

16. That's right...

The Democratic candidate only has to come here and say "Bush lied to you about Yucca Mountain," and the dems will win Nevada. I still am in shock that they didn't win it in 2000.

[Awsi Dooger]

17. Sorry, that conventional wisdom is WAY off

In a 50/50 race, Bush will win Nevada by a greater margin than he did in 2000. Period.

Our nominee needs to manage at least a 1 to 3 point national edge to pick up Nevada.

Nevada, like Colorado, has been flooded by high income transplants from California and other western states. They vote overwhelmingly Republican, and vote in much greater percentage than newcomer hispanics.

2002 was a horrific year for Democrats in Nevada, losing every major statewide race, almost every one by double digits. Shelley Berkeley did not come close to matching her final poll numbers. Nor did any other Democrat. The new Las Vegas house district was drawn as 50/50 yet a mediocre Republican candidate won by landslide. Dario Herrera was a flawed and doomed candidate in that race, but local exit polls indicated the district was much more conservative than projected.

And it was hardly the lousy 2002 gov candidate alone driving down Democratic numbers. Nevada is one state where national security fears have legitimately taken hold. The 9/11 terrorists met here, well publicized. Every spike in threat level comes with a report that Nevada hotels may be targets. There are annual fears of a New Year's terror strike on Las Vegas. I know literally hundreds of people who work in southern Nevada casinos. Almost without exception, they are petrified of a local terrorist assault.

2000 was the year to raise the Yucca Mountain issue. Bush had lied and misled about his plans, afraid to duck into Nevada other than one brief stop in friendly northern Nevada. This state was Gore's for the taking with any emphasis at all. Unfortunately, with California in hand Gore barely campaigned here at all.

In 2004 Yucca is past tense, to considerable degree. I saw one TV station poll, with a huge majority considering Yucca the inevitable dumping site. We need to seek those elusive over-the-top electoral votes elsewhere.