Today's Rasmussen poll: Hillary-41%, Obama-24%, Edwards 14%

[jenmito]

Just sayin'.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. She Still Has More Support Than Obama And Edwards Combined

Nice

[jenmito]

5. For now. You always have more support...until you have less...

which WILL happen IMO to Hillary. And remember the total of their support only comes to 79%. The other 21% will end up choosing between one of the top 3.

[jefferson_dem]

2. Obama closer to Hillary than he's been in a month.

We'll see if this is a one-day-deal of a trend...

[Capn Sunshine]

33. see my post on the latest poll of caucus goers

Obama beats every R they can put up by much larger margins than Hillary. Significantly larger. Like they are , in their unfailing polite Iowa way, trying to send you a message.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. Then What Message Is The Electoral College Vote Rich State Of Ohio Sending Us?

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=8684e5c8-ef95-410f-b1d2-e3f623b34ed2


I can be just as much of a sophist as you...

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. Obama's not going away any time soon

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I Agree

The Clinton people need to keep John Edwards around...

[jenmito]

6. He doesn't have enough money to stay around...

especially if he doesn't win IA.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. The Best Thing For Team Clinton Is For Edwards To Win IA Even If It Means She Came In Third

The only reason Hill scalped him last night is because she doesn't want to appear weak... I'm sure they want to keep him around...

[jenmito]

8. I disagree slightly. The best thing for Team Clinton is for Hillary to win. The second best thing

is for Edwards to win since it's expected since he's been practically living there since '04. If Obama beats her in IA, she's in a little (if not a LOT) trouble.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. You Can Game This Too Much

If Edwards loses IA he's done...

If HRC loses IA to Obama I see her and Obama slugging it out all the way through June...Even if she wins Obama still has the money to hang around...

But, again, Iowa is Edwards' Stalingrad...

[jenmito]

10. I agree in part...

But I think if Obama beats Hillary in IA he'll have shown he can slay the dragon and people will jump on the Obama bandwagon.

[Capn Sunshine]

34. He's got more than Hillary

the numbers the Hillary campaign throws up are combined with her General Election fund, which she can't spend on primaries.

[jenmito]

36. Edwards has more than Hillary? n/t

[geek tragedy]

11. He really has a glass chin. Hillary smacked him once and he

practically disappeared. Some fighter.

I think you'll see his support really erode in the last two weeks--just like what happened when it was clear that Gephardt was done.

Dead man walking.

[gaiilonfong]

12. She'll implode give her a chance

She is too self-absorbed not to at some point. I don't believe the polls, htere are people out there angry as heck, waiting to vote for REAL change from all this corruption!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. She Has Ice Water In Her Veins

I'd bet on the Polar Ice Caps melting before Hillary...

[jenmito]

27. I think so, too...

it may not happen 'til right before the IA caucuses, but it WILL get to the point where those who planned on voting for her because "she's electable" will wake up and realize the one who's electable is the one who offers REAL change, real honesty, and real integrity.

[DavidDvorkin]

13. See the graph here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3518385&mesg_id=3725817

Parent thread here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3518385&mesg_id=3518385

As always.

[Stuckinthebush]

14. Rasmussen also reports that she has a 52% unfavoribility rating

That sucks.

So here is the concern: She can win the Dem primary but can't win the General. That doesn't help us at all.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Here's A Link To Dozens And Dozens Of Polls

I challenge you to find more than a handful she's not leading in:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_giuliani_vs_clinton-227.html


http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

[Stuckinthebush]

19. So what do we do with her 52% unfavorability rating?

Ignore it? Or is Rasmussen not reliable?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. We Give It The Weight It Deserves

We give it the weight it deserves and look at the dozens and dozens and dozens of polls that show her doing quite well...

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

17. Where was that? His last round-up had Clinton and Obama's core opposition tied at 44%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/for_or_against_presidential_candidates

[Stuckinthebush]

18. Here is where I got it

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/favorables/election_2008_democratic_candidates_running_in_2008_presidential_election

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Accaording To This ONE Poll Obama And Edwards Are Only Marginally Better

DSB

[Stuckinthebush]

22. Still, it's better

Look, I like all of our candidates. Logically, if there is a candidate that has very high unfavorability ratings then that candidate will have to work much harder in the General to get independents to cross over.

Hillary simply is not the best candidate to have in the General, in my opinion, because of the high (and frankly, unmovable) negatives.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. You Conveniently Ignore The Dozens And Dozens And Dozens Of Polls I Linked Showing Her Beating The

Rethuglicans...

[Stuckinthebush]

26. Yep, I ignored them - actually I didn't look at them at all

The original post was about Rasmussen's poll. My response was based on Rasmussen's poll.

Rasmussen has her with very high negatives. If we want to respect Rasmussen's other numbers then let's respect them all.

That's all.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. OK. Then I Apologize.

Now can you please address the dozens and dozens of polls showing her doing quite well...


And here's more Hillary favorable/unfavorable polls:

http://www.pollingreport.com/C2.htm#Hillary

[Stuckinthebush]

29. Thank you

I'll be happy to look at those polls and get back with you on my thoughts.

[Stuckinthebush]

32. Some better results there

The LA Times and the Newsweek polls are the latest at that link and they have her in the mid 40s. That is much better than Rasmussens.

You are correct about that.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

23. Thanks for the reply. That chart has Obama at 50% unfavorable, which is so far

out of line with any unfavorable number I've ever seen for Obama that I am curious how he arrived at those figures.

Rassmussen's recent favorability ranking on the candidates have had Hillary in the 40s, but I don't know when that chart might be from. Gallup had her at 52% unfavorable in one poll last March, but all polling since then is more favorable. She is averaging about 44% these days.

(I don't know what terrible thing happened in March... was that the immigration debate?)

http://pollingreport.com/C2.htm#Hillary

[Stuckinthebush]

25. Could be

I don't know either. But high negatives for any candidate scare me.

I'll look for other favoribility ratings.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

31. Her unfavoarables are definately higher than others

but her positives usually are higher as well... name recognition. There are very few "no opinions"

If a candidate like Obama or Edwards converted all of his "don't know"s to positives he would be amazingly popular, but in practice that doesn't happen. These things always end up at close to 50-50 by election day as the candidates become more identified with their party. Even a highly likeable man like Obama would have about 48% disapproval by election day, just because we are close to 50-50 as a nation.

I think Hillary is pretty stable at slight net favorability. Others could do better as they are defined by the media, but they also carry the risk of doing worse. I don't trust the media to define any Dem in a favorable way, so whoever we run will end up with negatives over 45%.

Clinton's favorability is a fair question, but a lot of the articles about it were written earlier this year, when she was polling worse. (The same centrism that makes her unpopular with progressives has helped her with middle of the road voters as the primaries go on... the Rush Limbaugh myth of Hillary as wild left-winger has taken somes hits as she has been attacked from the left as a hawk.)

[Stuckinthebush]

35. Valid points

The name recognition is probably a factor in these numbers.

The reality is that none of our candidates will be supported by the rabid 30% of GOP voters. The 30% of independents are the issue. If these independents are hawkish (which is my assumption) then Hillary's hawkish stance is helpful and could swing some of those negatives her way.

The years of anti-Hillary media stories have taken their toll I'm afraid. My fear is that she won't be able to overcome the 10 years of right wing smear. She has limited ability to charm like her husband, but she may be able to make up for that in knowledge and (what should come across when set next to Rudy) wisdom.

I'm not sold on her as the best candidate, however. Frankly, I'm not sold on any of them as the best candidate.

We'll keep watching.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

37. The pug nominee makes a difference, also

Hillary does baddly when running agianst no one, because she's not real likeable.

But the pug candidate will be SO horrible that disaffected dem-leaners will be forced back into the fold no matter who we nominate. Republicans are our greatest asset, in that way. (I really don't like Edwards, but when Ann Coulter called him a faggot I was ready to jump into the tv to smack her)

My concern with Edwards and Obama is down-side risk. Either of them would have a better chance of getting 55%, but with more risk of getting 47% built in. I can immagine Biden getting 60% in a perfect campaign, but he has a big mouth and could really mess up too. I figure Hillary at a steady 51-52%, which would be an electoral college landslide.

Part of what makes someone unlikable is being controlled and phony, but that also reduces the risk of accidently telling the truth about something. (More campaigns are ruined by telling the truth than by lying.)

I think any Dem running (except probably Kucinich) could win in 2008, so it's all good.

[asha]

20. one at a time

Wright this down. Hillary wins Iowa . Edwards good hair out for ever,plitical life over.Hillary wins New Hampshire,no no wait Obama out. Hillary wins and Ghouliani is next . She will kick his ass all the way to Rick Lazio.

[jenmito]

38. If OBAMA wins IA, Edwards' supporters will go to him more than to Hillary...

So I'll write THAT down. Edwards will be out and then Obama will go on to win everything, and then kick ANY Repubs.' butt.