OK Iowa is 1.Edwards, 2.Obama, 3.Clinton, 4. Biden

[denem]

Clinton comes third after the less than 15% candidates decide not to vote for her. What happens after that?

[SaveElmer]

1. People laugh at your prediction...nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. You Woke Up

DSB

[denem]

12. LOL

Actually I am a HRC supporter. I am asking a question about electoral dynamics. The come back kid analogy, I guess. Namely, how important to her campaign is the "front runner" status

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Sorry

Relying on a "comeback kid" strategy is dangerous...

[denem]

15. "Comback kid yes is as dangerous as it comes.

Dean's campaign suffered tremendously from not matching his expectations in Iowa. Scream or no scream. I put up a scenario which the media would interpret as a real failure. I asked what would happened next, if HRC was harshly questioned as her position as forerunner. It's turning upside down the whole inevitability thing, and asking if her campaign is strong enough handle it vis "Hillary fails in Iowa", which would be the story of the night.

[BootinUp]

3. No, it will be Hillary.

She passed both Edwards and Obama a couple months back and I see no reason to suspect the momentum will go back to them.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I Am Concerned

I want Hillary to keep Edwards around to split the anti-HRC vote... I hope she "carries" him though Iowa...

[durrrty libby]

9. I agree. He needs to hang in there a while longer, but it won't

be easy for him

[BootinUp]

14. If Edwards support drops it will be split

between 3 or 4 other candidates some to Hillary. I see no evidence that there will be a massive shift to Obama. Richardson is actually doing fairly well in IA.

[Stop Cornyn]

24. Edwards is rising in Iowa but if he withdrew from the race, Obama and Kucinich would get 60% and 30%

of his support respectively.

If Edwards withdrew (which of course he won't) there would be a HUGE shift to Obama. Likewise, if Obama withdrew (which of course he won't) there would be a HUGE shift to Edwards.

In fact, if Edwards or Obama comes in third in Iowa, you will see a consolidation of Obama and Edwards supporters joining together around the winner of Iowa to beat Hillary in New Hampshire.

I'm sure you disagree, but you can bookmark this and come back to it after the New Hampshire primary.

[BootinUp]

25. I based my previous post

on a recent poll around here yesterday I think, about how strong support is for the top three and also 2nd choice candidates. How did you come by your theory?

[babylonsister]

18. She passed them? Funny, I read Iowa is up for grabs, here:

Poll: Iowa up for grabs

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/11/15/poll-io... /

Poll: Iowa up for grabs

A new poll shows a close race in Iowa.

WASHINGTON (CNN) — With less than two months to go until Iowans cast the first votes of 2008, a new KCCI-TV poll released Thursday shows that the Democratic race is up for grabs in the Hawkeye State.

Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-New York, holds a statistically insignificant 2 percentage-point lead over Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois (27 percent to 25 percent.) Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards falls just behind the frontrunners with 21 percent. But 11 percent of Iowa voters said they are still undecided, which makes the outcome unpredictable on Election Day.

A CBS/New York Times poll released Wednesday also showed Clinton, Obama and Edwards closely vying for the top spot in Iowa. That poll put Edwards in second place behind Clinton and Obama in third.

On the Republican side, the KCCI-TV poll showed former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee gaining ground in Iowa. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was comfortably in the lead with 27 percent, but Huckabee had 18 percent and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani got 16 percent. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson got 10 percent, but 15 percent of GOP voters said they were undecided. The CBS/New York Times poll had similar results.

The KCCI poll surveyed 600 likely Iowa voters from November 12-14. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

[BootinUp]

19. An average of several polls gives her a slight lead

and yes she passed Johnny in August-Sept, scroll down to the graph.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. That Was Before She Took Obama And Edwards' Heads Off

She needs to keep Edwards around to split the HRC vote...I suspect she won't beat him up so badly in the next debate...

[Evergreen Emerald]

4. that is a good question. I understand it took Kerry until December

to get to the head of the pack, with the help of the media of course.

Where are you getting that list? Are there any poll numbers?

[Donnachaidh]

5. the bots sure jumped on this thread fast.

Guess it's tag team time? :sarcasm:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Somebody Calls A Candidate Out And Her Supporters Come To Her Defense

Do you want them to just pull their pants down and give evil an opening?

[durrrty libby]

10. Sounds like a personal attack. Why bother with the sarcasm tag?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. She's Not Reacting Very Well To The Ass Kicking Hillary Gave John Edwards Last Night...

DSB

[BootinUp]

21. It was pretty brutal. lol.

[Rabo Karabekian]

8. Don't Listen to the Doubting Thomas's

I like the prediction, let's wait and see.

[OHdem10]

16. It has already been calculated with the possibility that she

could lose there or come in 3rd place. She is ahead in NH. Win NH
HRC has all that money. TV ads go up and she runs the table right
across the middle of the country.

As people in Iowa are voting, you must have ads ads going up in all
those early states . This is why money carries the day. The Media
will be helping her.

And you thought we picked our own candidates.

[hijinx87]

17. edwards is falling like a rock

his attacks are indeed taking chucks of flesh out of
hillary, but the beneficiary is obama. meanwhile, the
voters are recoiling at his departure from a positive
message.

it was a lose-lose scenario for him. he had to attack
because he was behind. but that usually only works when
you are second in a two horse race.

[IndianaJones]

22. lol. nt.

[Stop Cornyn]

23. I hope you're right, but I think Hillary may finish ahead of Obama because her supporters are more

reliable caucus participants.

If Iowa was a primary, I'd call it a three-way tie. But because it's a caucus, I think it'll come down Edwards, Hillary, Obama -- big gap -- Biden, Richardson, Kucinich, Dodd, Gravel.