Yepsen: Place your bets: Caucus outcome far from certain (3 way race still)

[Omaha Steve]

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071115/OPINION01/711150359/-1/SPORTS12

David Yepsen • November 15, 2007

Horse-race Journalism: Two New York Times/CBS News polls released Wednesday show noteworthy developments in both the Republican and Democratic presidential races in Iowa.

- Democrats. Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama are in a statistical tie for first place: Nobody's been knocked out. Nobody is breaking out. According to the poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa, Clinton has 25 percent, Edwards has 23 percent and Barack Obama has 22 percent. Bill Richardson is at 12 percent. (The poll of 793 likely Democratic caucus-goers was taken Nov. 2-11 and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.)

The Democratic candidates have another of those "high-stakes" presidential debates in Las Vegas tonight. (Are any of these debates "low-stakes" events any more?) It's at 7 p.m. on CNN. Clinton's poor performance in an Oct. 30 debate and her campaign stumbles in the days afterward put her under strong pressures to perform well. She needs to change the negative story lines that have been floating around about her for the last two weeks.

(She can thank the political gods for the Hollywood writers' strike. Can you imagine what the comedy shows would be doing with all the stories about her campaign planting questions, stiffing waitresses out of tips or having flags fall on her?)

All these problems have eliminated talk that her nomination is inevitable, something people in Washington seemed to believe but neglected to tell caucus-going Iowa Democrats. Her opponents can sense her vulnerabilities and have become more aggressive. She's starting to push back, noting how Edwards can't legally take away congressional health care and Obama takes special-interest money and hasn't done enough to keep jobs in Illinois.

The poll also illustrates why Democrats are having trouble deciding on a candidate: Clinton is seen as most electable, Obama as the one who'd bring real change in Washington and Edwards best understands the problems of Iowans. Clinton says what people want to hear but is best prepared to be president. Obama needs more preparation.

FULL story at link.