Marc Ambinder: The Michigan Conundrum

[rinsd]

Michigan still doesn't have a primary date after a judge struck it down on a technicality involving access to voter lists.

If new legislation fails, the Democrats could hold a caucus on Jan. 15 (or even on the day that Sec/State Bill Gardner sets for New Hampshire primary), and Republicans will hold a convention.

Caucuses, more than primaries, depend on candidate participation. John Edwards and Barack Obama won't play.

Oh -- the state legislature is trying to put Obama and Edwards's names back on the ballot.

If that happens, the Obama and Edwards campaigns will sue to get off the ballot.

Here's an argument for holding a caucus on Feb. 9:

Barack Obama has enough money, enough of a campaign argument, and enough confidence, no matter what, to stay in the race through Feb. 5

The race might be over by Feb. 5. Or a Feb. 9 caucus in Michigan could be a huge, hairy deal --potentially decisive, even.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/11/the_michigan_connundrum.php#more