Joe Scarborough reports Push Polling in Iowa

[NewHampster]

Joe just hinted at this story that the Obama or Edwards campaign is push polling. Joe hinted at the Edwards camp, but according to a blogger on the Edwards site it is Obama.

My guess is it's the Rethugs trying to make Dems look bad.

Guess what folks, I just got pushed polled by the Obama campaign. The caller asked for either me or my husband by name. First tip off. The poller said they were with Central Research. Asked the requiste who are you supporting? Who is your second choice?

Then why do you think Hillary Clinton is a weak candidate and gives 3 choices. A) Is a weak general election candidate. B)Is too dependent on lobbyist money. C) Won't bring change.

Then why do do think John Edwards is a weak candidate with 2 choices A) a weak general election candidate because his positions are too liberal B) He should be home with his wife who has cancer.


This is the lowest form of paid campaigning. there is only 1 candidate that hopes to benefit from this call. Obama.
Full post
http://blog.johnedwards.com/story/2007/11/12/215413/50?commentmode=flat_unthread

[MethuenProgressive]

1. "there is only 1 candidate that hopes to benefit from this call. Obama."

What ever happened to 'the politics of hope'? :shrug:

[Adelante]

10. Not necessarily

It's testing and any of the candidates on either side could be doing it. Even the candidates mentioned could be doing it themselves to check on their own situations.

[Cameron27]

18. The second question for Edwards

looks like it would only bring sympathy for Edwards and anger at the pollster IMO.

[Adelante]

20. Edwards could be testing his new ad possibly

I mean, there are all sorts of possibilities.

[Cameron27]

21. That's right

there are all sorts of possibilities.

[C_U_L8R]

2. Scarborough is a right wing stooge

he's giving Ghouliani free ad time for crying out loud...

Despite all his claims, Scarborough is just an overpaid uptown loudmouth
who has no clue what the common person needs or wants. Bah.

[David Zephyr]

39. He is, but this story didn't originate with him.

His reporting this doesn't make the story untrue. I'm more concerned about where this came from.

[William769]

3. Desperation has finnaly reached the candidate himself.

His supporters are rubbing off on him (and in more ways than one).

[Vickers]

4. Has he ever reported on Repuke push-polling?

Rhetorical question, of course.

[flpoljunkie]

5. More likely than not, it's Edwards folks behind this negative message testing.

I'm told, more directly, by a source familiar with the arrangements, that they've (Central Research) done calling for the Global Strategy Group, the firm of Edwards pollster Harrison Hickman which has a New York office -- but that doesn't mean they did this poll, by any means.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1107/Message_testing_in_Iowa_Elizabeth_Edwards_health.html

[Cameron27]

6. Marc Ambinder has another take on the story:

"Who might the suspect be?

First, don't be so quick to blame (or credit) Barack Obama's campaign.

Campaign often test negative messages against themselves -- they want to poll their negatives.

Come to think of it, the "negatives" cited by the telephone poll-taker are the Edwards campaign version of HRC's negatives, not the Obama campaign's version of negatives. (An Edwards campaign spokesman chastizes me for the speculation and absolutely denies that the campaign has anything to do with the calls). Or maybe Hillary Clinton might want to test the effectiveness of John Edwards's messaging. Both Clinton's campaign spokesman, Phil Singer, and Obama's spokesman, Bill Burton, said their respective campaigns had nothing to do with the calls either.

"Central Research" is the name of the phone farm.

No disbursements have been paid to a firm of that name this cycle or last cycle, so "Central Research" -- a real company based in Arkansas -- is in itself, sort of a front for a front for the guilty campaign."

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/11/whos_behind_the_negative_messaging_in_iowa.php

[NewHampster]

8. Thanks for that.

I could believe it from any of them, including my candidate. I hope journalists (a rare commodity) follow-up and maybe help stop this process.

Then again, maybe it was funded by a news organization to create some news.

[Catchawave]

24. from marc's comments:

"Over at Politico, Ben Smith has gotten every Democratic campaign on the record denying involvement save Gravel, Kucinich, and Obama. Gravel and Kucinich don't have the money to do this, it appears to be using the Democratic voter role, which costs $85,000."

[Evergreen Emerald]

7. what is "push" polling?

and how is it different?

[NewHampster]

9. More or less fake poll

I got one in 2004.

They start with the normal who do you support questions then "push" for the answer they want by asking negative, leading questions about a candidate.

Instead of asking What do you like or dislike in a candidate, they ask "What do you like least about so and so, A, B, C choices".

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Good Question

The caller pretends to be a pollster but it is his or her mission to spread negative information...For instance in South Carolina during the 00 campaign push pollsters called South Carolinians and asked them if they "would vote for McCain if they knew he sired an illegitimate black daughter?"


Much, much, much worse than planting innocuous questions about global warming...

[Evergreen Emerald]

12. thanks

that is some ugly politics!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. It Can Work In Small States

But think of the calls a person would have to make to make an impact... I guess you can use a robocaller...

[rinsd]

27. Push polls tend to be robocalls.

[rinsd]

26. Push polling isn't an actual poll.

Its negative advertising disguised as a survey being taken where the surveyor (usually robocalls) asks the interviewee questions about the candidates usually in a very slanted manner about negative aspects of their campaign.

See the examples in the OP? Classic push polling.

[Virginia Dare]

14. I wonder where Joe got "the tip"?....

I think you're guess may be correct.

[Cameron27]

15. I think he said it came from Ben Smith

at Politico. He also said that if the candidate who's behind this poll is discovered, it could sink his/her campaign in Iowa.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. Push Polling Is Much Worse Than Using Plants

The former is a moral sin , imho, the latter is a venal sin...

[chelsea0011]

17. There is no way to know that it comes from Obama. Any RW

orginization who thinks Obama could never win a general election could have made this poll.

[zulchzulu]

19. Wait until O'Reilly verifies the story for validity

:crazy:

[MNDemNY]

22. Not much of a "push" poll question..

Here is a push poll question:
Would you be more or less likely to vote for Barrack Obama if you know he fathered 13 children out of wedlock?.....Now THAT is a push poll question.

[Adelante]

23. You're right, it's not a push poll

People tend to confuse message testing with push polling.

[rinsd]

28. I disagree. I see this as push polling.

Is it the worst example of push polling? Hell no. In fact its rather mild but it still spreads dual meme of weakness by Edwards and Clinton.

On edit: I know candidates do this sort of thing under the guise of message testing but its one of the more ethically uncomfortable aspects of a campaign.

[Adelante]

29. I don't think so

A push poller probably wouldn't bother with voter rolls, which according to some of the recipients, there were indications such as a form of name used for voter registration but not in regular phone records. A push poller usually would just go down the phone book (only computerized) trying to push out as widely as possible. They won't care who they're talking to in a household. An exception would be such as push polling done against Dean (I think it was) in New Hampshire, where elderly voters who said they were for Dean were told they wouldn't be able to vote. Something very specific, a genuine mission with a particular result in mind. It remains to be seen how widely this Iowa survey was done, but that's one way of determining. Push polling is more like telemarketing than legitimate political surveying in that information is distributed as opposed to collected and as rapidly as possible. I read somewhere these calls took about fifteen minutes with right or ten questions; a push poller wouldn't waste that much time in getting their chosen message out and moving on to the next call. Finally, there's nothing in the questions I've seen, negative or not, that isn't already being discussed by the public, so it's not like information dissemination or disinformation, fairly defining characteristics of push polling. I see no special reason to think it's being done by one of our candidates, who have all denied it, but I wouldn't have been surprised if it had been, even by the two cited. It could as easily be a Republican campaign or some group doing it. In any of those cases, though, it looks like message testing to me.

[rinsd]

30. You've changed my mind.

I think that may be a DU first!

:hi:

[Adelante]

31. It may be a DU first for me, too

:hi:

We can probably expect the real pros to weigh in on the question, so we'll see.

[rinsd]

32. Who needs real pros? You laid it out fine.

BTW, a "real pro" agrees with you

Ambinder on this- BTW: This might not technically push-polling. Push-polls aren't polls -- they're widely distributed pseudo-polls that are only used to spread negative messages. If these calls turn out to be widely distribured --if, say, 50,000 caucus goers received them -- then, perhaps, they're push-polls. But if only 500 received them, then you're probably looking at a message-testing poll.

But real push polls are rare -- the volume required to sufficiently spread a negative message is beyond the capacity of most campaigns.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/11/whos_behind_the_negative_messaging_in_iowa.php

[David Zephyr]

38. It is push polling. You are right about this, rinsd.

This precisely the nature of push polling.

I hope that this is investigated seriously.

This is sick.

[Turn CO Blue]

25. This is all hearsay, and the conclusions are biased speculations

on edit - let's find a link to a news source (not just joe scarborough on some blog)?

[NewHampster]

33. More from Ben Smith

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1107/Central_Marketing_Not_us.html

[Beaverhausen]

34. I really hope this isn't Obama

I'm an Edwards supporter but I like Obama. If they are sinking this low that will be it for me, though.

[Basileus Basileon]

35. It could be any of the candidates on either side--even Hill or Edwards.

They have an interest in knowing how effective lines of attack have been.

[Sparkly]

36. I'm shocked -- SHOCKED! -- to find there's dirty politics going on in Iowa!

It IS terrible, so I don't mean to make light of it; but it happens every time, unfortunately. And it could be some organization, or a campaign -- Democratic or Republican.

[David Zephyr]

37. Here's a link to another stealth attack on another Democratic candidate this year.

Who has done it before?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6h3G-lMZxjo

[Faryn Balyncd]

40. HUGE: Why is a Republican polling firm push polling Democrats in Iowa?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2281157



This seems to be the real story, that's being missed.