USA TODAY/Gallup Poll: Obama, Clinton Virtually Tied -

[ariesgem]

On edit: I apologize for posting this. I was browsing articles and found this one dated 11/7 but this is an old poll. I've been corrected by the good folks at DU.

Thanks





WASHINGTON — Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama are essentially tied for the Democratic presidential nomination, according to a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, the first time that the New York senator hasn't clearly led the field.

The Illinois senator bests Clinton by a single percentage point, 30%-29%, if the contest includes former vice president Al Gore.

Clinton bests Obama by a single point, 37%-36%, if it doesn't include Gore.

The survey of 310 Democrats and 160 independents who "lean" Democratic, taken Friday through Sunday, has a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.

National polls taken the year before an election are "clearly not a prediction of how they're going to end up," cautions political scientist Charles Franklin of the University of Wisconsin. "On the other hand, the national trends are a good indicator of whose messages are beginning to work and whose messages may be falling short."

No other major national poll has shown the Democratic race so close. An ABC News/Washington Post poll taken last Tuesday through Friday gave Clinton a 12-point lead.

Mark Penn, Clinton's chief strategist, calls the USA TODAY poll "an outlier" that is "completely out of sync" with other surveys. He says it is "seriously flawed" for including so many independents unlikely to vote in Democratic primaries.

"National polls are not all that relevant in a process that is largely sequential" through early contests in a series of particular states, says David Axelrod, Obama's chief strategist.

Even so, Axelrod adds, "This poll is consistent with what we see on the ground" as increasingly huge crowds show up for Obama's appearances. He says it also undercuts the argument Clinton strategists have tried to make that "she's an Juggernaut."

Among Democrats alone, Clinton leads Obama by 5 points, 34%-29%. That's a significant narrowing from the USA TODAY poll taken in mid-May, when she led by 17 points. Among independents, Obama leads by 9 points, 31%-22%.

http://www.11alive.com/news/politics_govt/article_politics.aspx?storyid=106320

[Joe the Revelator]

1. Holy shit.

nt

[geek tragedy]

2. Old, old, old poll.

Thompson hadn't announced when that poll was released.

[Joe the Revelator]

3. Ah, I see.

[ariesgem]

7. The article was dated 11/12/2007 . That was my reason for posting it.

If it's old, then my bad!
:spank:

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. The news 11 site seems to have messed up. It's the June 3, 07 poll

[saltpoint]

4. Linda Ellerbe once said of USA TODAY, "It's a newspaper for people who find

television news too complex."

Not sure what to do with this polling result. It appears to be at odds with other polling of recent weeks, which is not to say I clinically know it's wrong, only that from afar, it may be an outlier.

One thought is to wait for the next round of other established polling outfits and see if the movement this poll indicates is similarly registered.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

5. Tis is the 6/1-3/07 poll with the wrong date on the article. (link here)

The correct number for novemeber USA Today Gallup without Gore is Clinton 50, Obama 22


http://pollingreport.com/wh08dem.htm

[ariesgem]

11. I didn't mean to post it as "a hoax". I read the article which was

dated 11/12/07 and thought this was a recent poll. Sorry about that and thanks for the link.:hi:

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

14. Sorry for the accusation. I should have just said error

[mtnsnake]

6. The only Gallup Poll on the USA Today site says Clintons's big lead is "unchanged"

http://www.gallup.com/poll/102601/Hillary-Clintons-Big-Lead-Democratic-Race-Unchanged.aspx

[Bitwit1234]

9. I'm not worried about Obama being tied with Hillary

he won't make it, but If Edwards was tied it would be a horse race.

[Imagevision]

26. I'm not worried about Obama being tied with Hillary either, he has plenty of time

to distance her before Iowa, anyone think Hillary's numbers are going to increase are in for a shocker, Obama is running his campaign superbly, check his numbers in seven days then say it's irrelevant Obama has begun to pull away from Hillary.

[NOVA_Dem]

10. Edit: Channel 11 Needs a new webmaster

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

12. ...

The thing is debunked, with link, right above your post

(It may be that 11alive.com has typing problems)

[NOVA_Dem]

20. 50% of the reason HC isn't like on this board is b/c of

her obnoxious/rude supporters like you.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

22. Coming from someone who posts falsehoods in ALL CAPS, then edits the post to cover their tracks...

[NOVA_Dem]

28. You gotta a lot of nerve.

A legitimate news website incorrectly posted an old Gallup poll with TODAY's date and I pointed that out without directing any insults toward anyone. You insulted me without provocation for believing that the story was true (b/c the news 11 website made a mistake) and then you deleted your insult.

How horrible, I posted in all caps that the poll was new to the OP. That really warranted "YOU NEED TO LEARN HOW TO READ BETTER" and then cowardly deleting the insult. You deleted it b/c you knew you looked like a class-1 A-Hole.

[mtnsnake]

13. I think it's still a hoax. No where in their article do they give a link to that poll

If you go to the USA Today site, the only poll they have from the weekend is the one that says her big lead is still unchanged.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

17. Correct story here (USA Today site from June 2007)

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2007-06-04-poll_N.htm

[mtnsnake]

19. Thanks. The race is gettng more interesting by the minute. nt

[Connie_Corleone]

23. Last updated 160 days ago.

I don't know why the website in the OP has it posted today. It's from June.

[ariesgem]

25. Sorry. I was browsing through articles and this one was dated 11/7

I stand corrected.
:hi:

[Sparkly]

16. Obvious clues

"Meanwhile, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani leads the Republican field at 32%, up three points from the poll in mid-May. Arizona Sen. John McCain was second at 19%, down four points.

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney edged up four points to third place, at 12%, one point above former Tennessee senator and actor Fred Thompson. Thompson formed a testing-the-waters committee last week and could formally enter the race as early as next month."

It's bizarre.

[ariesgem]

21. My apologies for posting this. I stand corrected.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

24. Cool. Sorry for jumping ugly at you

[Imagevision]

15. Obama is timing his moves so incredibly briliiant, Hillary's numbers can only go down starting this

past weekend...!

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

18. Incredible timing... he's gone five months back in time

[Imagevision]

27. five months back in time? - in a race like this one never shoots their full load in the

beginning of a very long race only to run short of material when it comes to the home stretch, when Obama's numbers begin to climb in the coming weeks, does anyone really care where his numbers were 2 months ago!?! We'll see?