Poll: Hillary's New Hampshire Lead Halved

[babylonsister]

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2007/11/poll_hillarys_new_hampshire_lead_halved.php

Poll: Hillary's New Hampshire Lead Halved
By Eric Kleefeld - November 11, 2007, 12:04AM

The new Marist poll of New Hampshire finds that Hillary Clinton's lead in the state has been cut in half.

The numbers this month: Hillary 36%, Obama 25%, Edwards 14%. Last month, Hillary 41%-20% lead over Barack Obama, with John Edwards at 11%.

This would corroborate an earlier poll this week from Rasmussen, which also had Hillary's lead shrinking.

Marist poll here:

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/NH/NHPZ0711.htm

[Evergreen Emerald]

1. I know that as the day gets closer, the polls generally close up

I would like to see trends to see if that is true.

[Joe the Revelator]

16. Yeah, and the numbers just happened to start going down when she started running her campaign

like a drunken idiot. Nothing to do with that, it's all about how close the primary is getting :rofl:

[Evergreen Emerald]

18. what?

a drunken idiot? Really? What are you talking about?

[MLFerrell]

20. Lolski!

:rofl:

[cali]

2. good. I'd rather not see Clinton as the nominee.

On the other hand, it doesn't look like Edwards in moving much, and anyway, he won't have the bucks to compete in the general, so that would be tough. And I haven't been happy with Obama lately.

[Stuckinthebush]

6. Me either...Hillary or Obama

They both have turned me off. I fear that if either one is the candidate that we will have a lackluster turnout.

[earthlover]

11. I, too, have been disappointed in both Hillary and Obama

At one time, I was very hopeful about Obama. Now I have similar fears about Obama's electability in November as I do Hillary's.

It is going to be interesting seeing how things play out in the next two months.

If either Obama or Edwards seriously fades, the other will benefit. If there becomes one clear alternative to Hillary, I think Hillary is in deep trouble. Maybe they both will fade and Biden will pick up the slack? Biden would be an extremely formidable nominee for November. In my view, the one candidate we have who would have a 100% lock on the presidency if nominated. The rest worry me, each for different reasons.

[Yael]

19. He is only takiing public financing for the primary.

It will be a long, dry summer -- but after the convention, he is free to go.

[saltpoint]

3. As EE posts upthread, there is likely to be a tightening of races not only in

NH but elsewhere. The volatility may be more noticeable in Iowa and New Hampshire, since their voters get first crack at a ballot.

Nationally, polls show Giuliani with the lead, although he is markedly behind Romney in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

And nationally, HClinton's lead is healthier than these recent tighter polls from the first two early states.

It's less than 2 months now before the Iowa caucus. It feels to me like nearly anything could still happen.

[earthlover]

4. What I would love to see is the polls miraculously giving ALL the Dem candidates...

...including Biden, Kucinich, Richardson, and the rest....an equal poll number!

Maybe then people would look at all the candidates and select the one they think will be the best nominee and the best president!

Boy would that be a radical change in the way people think!!!

[saltpoint]

7. I like that arithmetic.

:thumbsup:

[mtnsnake]

5. or you could say she still leads by double digits when nobody thought it possible at this juncture

of the Primary season

[earthlover]

8. this poll was about New Hampshire, a state Hillary was always expected to win handily

It is one of her neighboring states, after all!

I would expect that 08 will not be much different than other years. The winner of Iowa will receive lots of free media coverage, will be the political buzz, and will get lots of momentum going into NH.

I remember 03. Kerry was so far behind in NH he basically suspended his campaign there, remortgaged their house, and put everything in a do-or-die last gasp effort at Iowa. Well, we know how that turned out....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. New Hampshire Isn't A Neighboring State Of New York

It's as different from New York, culturally and demogrphically, as say Iowa...

[Colobo]

10. The thing is that Obama is gaining ground and she's losing it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. That Doesn't Mean New Hampshire Is A Neighbor Of New York

Or that it is remotely similar to New York, culturally or demographically...

[Colobo]

15. It just means that Obama's message is starting to resonate more and more.

[earthlover]

14. It is still in the neighborhood....

I did not say adjacent, nor did I even try to say the two states are identical.

However, my point stands. Hillary has been considered the one to beat in New Hampshire from the start. At one point a prohibitive favorite, among the poll-junky class.

If someone other than Hillary wins NH, she is in deep trouble.

The operative phrase would be...."what happened?"

[Joe the Revelator]

17. Negative movement is not a positive thing. Ever

nt

[AtomicKitten]

12. Obama is kicking it into overdrive.

I am absolutely thrilled with his unmistakable movement in the polling.

[bvar22]

21. So "outlier" has become a "trend"?

Peaked too early?

This will cause the Hillary Cult some grief.
All they have is "the polls...the polls....the polls....the polls...".
This won't be pretty.
It'll be like Linus losing his blankie.


"There are forces within the Democratic Party who want us to sound like kinder, gentler Republicans. I want us to compete for that great mass of voters that want a party that will stand up for working Americans, family farmers, and people who haven't felt the benefits of the economic upturn."---Paul Wellstone