Arizona Poll: Bush by 8

[bluestateguy]

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

Bush (R) 52%

Kerry (D) 44%

[spooky3]

1. the results are the same for Edwards (well within MOE).

Let's hope to see a change over time.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. But I see there where Kerry can win Nevada- now Bush 49-48.

damn. We're looking good.

[mohc]

3. What I find odd

Is that Bush was doing better with women than men (or equally so in the case of Edwards). Bush was also carrying the Hispanic vote, which Gore carried 73-27. We've narrowed the gap with whites enough that we should win in a landslide. What's going on here?

[dtseiler]

4. Easy

Bandwagon Bush is selling out big-time in the election year with this amnesty to illegal immigrants.

[mohc]

9. You've got to be kidding me

Bush's feigned backing of amnesty, which we all know he would never actually support, has a net effect of 47% among the Hispanic vote? The Republicans want to deny basic services to immigrants, we've got to get on top of this issue.

[lancdem]

7. Are you talking about Arizona?

I'm sure Bush isn't winning among Latinos nationally.

[mohc]

12. Yes

I was looking at the breakdown from the poll he quoted. Bush leads Kerry 48-47 among the Hispanic vote, Edwards 48-43. I have not seen a national poll that had a breakdown that I could see Hispanic support. Gore carried Hispanics nationally 62-35, if Arizona has shifted this much, it could mean the same nationally.

[bigtree]

5. I think this is the rationale behind Bill Richardson for VP

East-West dynamic

[lancdem]

6. That's not bad

It's competitive in a state that's generally considered solid GOP. I also like the poll that has Bush only beating Kerry by 8 in Indiana.

[King of New Orleans]

13. actually only 6 in Ind

And a poll a few weeks back had Kerry only 8 behind in Kansas.

Actually Kerry probably doesn't have much name recognition in the Latino community yet. Big difference between primary coverage and general election. Bush's name is more identifiable.

[denverbill]

8. How the heck is Bush winning so big in Arizona?

It barely went Bush in 2000. They elected a Democratic female governor in 2002. More Democrats are moving to the state daily. And Bush's plan to give amnesty to illegals is hugely unpopular there. Why the heck is Kerry doing so bad there?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

10. 2000 Gore got 44.7% to Bush's 51

no big deal here.

[Sufi Marmot]

11. AZ and IN 2000 numbers:

AZ: Bush 51%, Gore 45%, Nader 3%
IN: Bush 57%, Gore 41%

The 2004 poll numbers look OK considering we don't have an official Dem nominee yet, and neither candidate has campaigned in either state yet, as far as I know...I definitely think we should fight hard in AZ...

-SM