Marist Poll - New York Feb 20, 2004

[Nicholas_J]

New York State Democratic Presidential Primary
February 20, 2004

KERRY WITH SIZEABLE LEAD AMONG NEW YORK STATE DEMOCRATS:
Massachusetts Senator John Kerry is outdistancing his rivals in the race for one of Super Tuesday’s delegate rich states. Kerry receives the support of 66% of likely New York State Democratic primary voters followed by 14% for North Carolina Senator John Edwards, 7% for Reverend Al Sharpton, and 3% for Dennis Kucinich. 10% are undecided.

MANY VOTERS STILL NOT FIRMLY COMMITTED TO A CANDIDATE:
Only 50% of likely New York State Democratic primary voters are strongly committed to a candidate for their party’s nomination for president. 27% say they somewhat support their choice, and 22% indicate they might vote differently on primary day. 52% of Kerry’s support is firmly committed to him. This is 34% of the
total likely Democratic primary electorate.

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/


Kerry's support in the suburbs of NYC and Upstate is running 10 -18 points over his 60 percent support in New York City.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. NYC is (was) Dean country

Lot of strong Dean support here.

[bigwillq]

3. But will they still vote for Dean

even though he's "out" of the race?

[Slice]

2. well

This little chunk of the electorate is voting for Kerry.

NY is Kerry country!

[Nicholas_J]

5. Kerry was already beginning to show a lead in New York polls

Before Iowa.

Current Quinnipaic polls have him with a very larege lead in New York, and have him beating Bush there by a fair margin.

Same in California.

[Slice]

10. good

I like kerry

[Padraig18]

4. I still think Skinner should pin this to the top of the forum

It would save posting it for the 6th time today...

[mot78]

6. Remember Wisconsin

Kerry had a HUGE lead over Edwards and he only won by 4 points.

[Nicholas_J]

7. He did, but Wsconsin is not the Super Tuesday States

These states do not allow the voters who were largely responsible for Edwards coming in much stronger in Wisconsin. An open primary, allowing Democrats. Republicans,and Indeendents. The upcoming states require the voters to be registered Democrats to vote in the primaries.

The Wisconsin Polls were polls of Democratic Voters, and these polls did not reflect the Republicans and Independents who supported Edwards. If those elements are removed, Kerry's support among registered Democrats was as large in WIsconsin as the polls estimated.

[King of New Orleans]

8. Well, it actually was 5.5% I believe

Edwards did an impressive job of closing the gap in Wisconsin. Of course, this time he's got 10 states to try to close the gap in. Unless he clones himself, he going to need some outside intervention. Edwards is a great campaigner, but he ain't that good.

[Nicholas_J]

9. In order for Edwards to catch up to Kerry

It will be necessary for him to sweep every Super Tuesday State with 60 percent of the vote. This does not look like it is likely to happen, as Edwards simply cannot do what he did in Wisconsin for the week prior to Wisconsin. Whole Edwards has begun to show some bounce as a result of Wisconsin, Kerry is going up be the exact same number of points or more in the Super Tuesday States since he won Wisconsin, with many polls showwing Kerry with anywhere from 60 to 68 percent of the votes in polls far higher than the numbers he has been showing in polls before Wisconsin. Kerry is polling at nearly 70 percent in Florida since Wisconsin. Edwards may come up in these other states, but without the profile of voters who voted for him in Wisconsin, it is not likely that the percentages he wins in the other states will be as large as those he had in Wisconsin.