Monday, November 05, 2007
It may gall Republican voters to even think about the possibility, but Hillary Clinton’s success in the Iowa caucuses may play a decisive role in selecting the 2008 Republican Presidential nominee.
Partly, that’s because Clinton has emerged as the defining theme of Election 2008. But, it also has a lot to do with the dynamics of the New Hampshire Primary process.
In New Hampshire, independent voters can participate in either the Republican or the Democratic Primary Election. At the moment, independents are showing a far greater interest in the Democratic race than the GOP. That’s true on both in New Hampshire and nationwide. As a result, polls of the New Hampshire Republican Primary include a very small number of independent voters.
But, that could all change if Clinton wins convincingly in Iowa (where she currently leads).
Since most analysts currently view Iowa as a must-win state for Barack Obama and John Edwards, a decisive Clinton victory would lead many to conclude that her nomination truly is inevitable. In that case, a large number of New Hampshire independent voters might rethink their options and participate in the Republican Primary. It’s happened before, in Election 2000. When it became apparent that Bill Bradley was not going to stop Al Gore from getting the Democratic nomination, a large number of independent voters voted in the GOP Primary to hand John McCain the biggest victory of his political career. Had Bradley remained a viable candidate, McCain would not have won that primary election.
More at the link -
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/2008_republican_presidential_primary
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