Dear Howard Dean supporters,
I know that this is a difficult time for you when the candidate that led your movement to reclaim America has ended his active campaigning for the nomination. I know what it means to have devoted hours upon hours, day after day, week after week, and month after month, at the expense of any semblance to normal life, to a cause that one passionately believes in.
I want to write to you and reach out to you because I believe that the task of reclaiming our democracy still lies ahead. The corporate controlled media that played a central and crucial role in derailing the Dean movement is now trying to convince everyone that the Democratic nomination race for all practical purposes is over. They are trying to convince people to go along with the front-runner by giving the impression that it is the only option available to them. The truth is that the race is in fact not over, and John Kerry has not won yet, and will probably not win according to my analyses.
Kerry currently stands with 495 pledged delegates, out of the 3520 total delegates that can be won through the primaries. Kerry's opponents currently have a total of 339 delegates. The final nominee needs to have 2161 delegates to secure the nomination. Kerry needs 1666 additional pledged delegates to have the nomination locked up. There are still 2686 pledged delegates that have not been voted on or awarded to anyone. That means Kerry has to get 62% of the remaining delegates to lock up the nomination. Additionally there are 801 super-delegates, who are free to vote any which way they like at the actual nominating convention in July. It is still possible for someone other than Kerry to get to the finish line. It is also possible that none of the candidates will get the required 2161 delegates, leading to the situation of a brokered convention. In a brokered convention the candidate going in with the most momentum and the candidate that convinces the most delegates at the convention that he/she represents the best interests of the Democratic Party and has the best shot at beating George Bush is most likely to win the nomination at the convention.
I would also like to present my brief analyses of the situation on the ground and what I expect to happen in the future. Currently Kerry is the undisputed front-runner. He has won the most states and has the largest number of delegates. The media has prematurely proclaimed him to be a sure shot, or at worst in a two-way race with Edwards. Things can't get any better for him. But they can get worse. He suffers from the same risks that any front-runner does. He has Edwards close on his heels. Edwards has momentum going forward after Wisconsin, while Kerry has lost much of his momentum. Although he won in Wisconsin, he got only a narrow lead over Edwards. The media will give increasing coverage as well as scrutiny to Edwards, as is typical in their horse race like coverage of the primaries. Since Edwards doesn't have a long enough track record in politics, it will be harder for the media to dig up as much dirt on him. I expect that as Edwards' media coverage increases, so too will his poll ratings as well as his performance in the subsequent primaries, possibly knocking the Kerry train off the tracks. During this whole time, I fully expect the media to continue ignoring the existence of the Kucinich campaign, the fact that he is still actively campaigning, and that he is not out despite their attempts to derail him.
Then there is the situation of money. As of January 31st, Kucinich had $2.6 million cash on hand, Kerry had $1.6 million, Edwards had $275 thousand, and Sharpton had $7 thousand. Dean had the largest amount at $9.6 million, which I'm guessing will be useful to his movement in the new PAC that he is considering forming.
At this point, Kerry has the highest burn rate of money, and will quickly run out, unless he can sustain a healthy fundraising from his supporters. His campaign also has a loan of around $6 million that it owes to John Kerry who mortgaged his home in Boston to provide that loan to his campaign. If he has trouble raising funds to keep him in the race, he will have even more trouble raising funds to pay off his campaign debt which he secured by mortgaging his home. The fact that he has opted out of FEC public funding also hurts his ability to maximize his fundraising. It's true that he now has no spending limits, but where is that money going to come from?
John Edwards has even less money than Kerry, but his increasing momentum should help him raise just enough to stay in the race. His eligibility for FEC matching funds will allow him to get additional leverage out his donations as well.
Dennis Kucinich has the most amount of money at hand of the remaining candidates and has the lowest burn rate. He is also eligible for FEC matching funds and thus can get maximum leverage out of his contributions. He is still successfully raising more money from his supporters, despite the near complete media black-out. It is quite safe to assume that he will have enough funds to keep actively campaigning all the way to the convention in July.
Although Dean ran an amazing campaign which will be credited in history books as having transformed politics and campaigning, he was forced into a premature ending of his campaign for President. The circumstances are well known to all Dean supporters as well as anybody with common sense to see what was going on. Despite this, Dean has contributed to keeping the issues that concern ordinary Americans in the mainstream political debates and caused the other candidates to take up those issues too, which they might not have otherwise. Dean can be credited with bringing a lot of new people concerned about their country into politics and taught them that they can change their country and that their voice matters. This movement, and power, must not be allowed to end, even if Dean is no longer actively campaigning for the nomination.
Just like the Dean supporters have experienced and know first hand how the media will conspire to keep issues out of politics and to trivialize political debate into a horse race, rather than a critical discussion based on issues, they have kept another brave and honest candidate out of the public spotlight because he too, just like Howard Dean, speaks the truth. The truth is like Kryptonite to the media and their bosses. Just like the media has caused irreparable harm to the Dean movement for representing the aspirations of ordinary people and speaking the truth, the same media has also tried to cause irreparable harm to the Kucinich movement by either keeping it hidden away, or if they do provide any coverage, it does not vary from the theme of him being a fringe and a long shot candidate, or some other trivial matter such as his personal romantic life. What about the issues? I hope some of you can see that Kucinich is a victim of the media just as Howard Dean is.
Just like Howard Dean, Dennis Kucinich is continuing the fight for the progressive agenda. So far, he has not been forced out of the race, and his campaign is still in place on the ground in all the remaining and he is on the ballot in all the remaining states, where his campaign will keep working to bring the voters out. My prediction is that John Kerry will be dropping out of this race pretty soon, after failing to win over 50% of the delegates in several successive states yet to come. This will leave Edwards, Kucinich and Sharpton in the race for the nomination. Sharpton will remain in the race all the way to the convention simply because he is the only progressive candidate who has shown consistent ability to pick up delegates in black population areas and solidify the black voter bloc. Although he is most definitely a long shot for the nomination, he might have some impact in determining who the final nominee is going to be. This leaves the wide open between Edwards and Kucinich. To progressive democrats the choice between these two candidates should be quite clear. Although a populist to some extent, Edwards is no match compared to Kucinich in terms of platform, and if Kucinich picks up just enough delegates to keep Edwards from locking up the nomination, it will lead to the situation of a brokered convention, where Kucinich will have as much chance as any of the remaining candidates to get the nomination. At this point, Dean supporters have the choice of voting for either Dean in the primaries, or for one of the other four candidates that is remaining in the field. It is something that Dean supporters need to discuss amongst themselves to come to the best decision about their course of action. The end goal would be to send progressive delegates to the convention.
I would like to extend my hand of friendship on behalf of the Kucinich movement and ask the Dean supporters to join us in working to get progressive delegates elected to the national convention. I know that this has been a very competitive primary campaign season where a lot of feet have been trampled upon and lot of feelings hurt on both sides. These sort of feelings lead to bruised egos and can get in the way of reconciliation and working together for a greater cause. For the sake of working together to reclaim America from corporate warmongers, I ask that we bury the hatchet rather than beat each other on the head with it.
There is too much at stake to let the media decide who our next president is going to be. The whole world is looking at the outcome of the US elections for the very sake of the survival of our only planet Earth. The war and occupation in Iraq still continues, the jobs in American keep being outsourced while corporations are continually allowed to keep exploiting foreign workers, millions of Americans are still without health care, and the list goes on and on.
The reasons for why Dean's candidacy was relevant and important are still true today. The task of reclaiming our democracy still lies ahead. Dennis Kucinich is still in the trenches fighting to prevent the media from deciding the nominee. The plan of the Dean movement for the progressive transformation of the Democratic Party as well as helping to elect Democratic candidates to Congress is commendable. But in addition to that, there is still a great need to keep fighting to get a progressive candidate nominated on the Democratic Party ticket. I don't believe that Edwards or Kerry meet that qualification.
I urge and request you all to take a closer second look at Dennis Kucinich. If you have time to check out only one resource, then I would recommend watching his speech to the King County Democrats in Seattle, WA, available at the following site:
http://www.kucinich-washington.org/videos/kcdems56.ram Additional information on the issues is available on his website and I encourage everyone to at least sign-up to keep themselves aware of what is going on in the campaign of the only remaining progressive alternative in the race:
http://www.kucinich.us/ I have been paying close attention to what Howard Dean has been saying and one of his best lines, that still holds true is that you have the power. This is a fact that does not ever change. You made the Howard Dean movement the power that it is, and you still have that power.
Hope is still alive, and as long as we the people keep fighting, we will win.
In Peace and Solidarity,
Tayyab Siddiqui,
East Coast Coordinator of Muslims for Kucinich.
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