Josh Marshall says Presidential election will "definitely" be close. Why?

[AngryYoungMan]

Who agrees with this assessment?

I generally trush Marshall's judgement. But what is he basing this on?

Am I missing something? We've got an incumbent who lost the popular vote to begin with, had to be installed by the Court, and has seen his base degrade. He was booed at Nascar, Buchanan is (sort of) supporting Edwards, and that paper that hasn't supported a Democrat in 88 years has come out for Kerry.

Where's the "close" election?

[aldian159]

1. They will not go gently into that good night

A wounded animal will always fight back, especially if cornered.

[jonnyblitz]

8. wounded and rabid.

tetanous shots for everyone after.

[David Dunham]

2. Bush will transfer power in Iraq and play up the improving economy

By doing these things, he will try to get the sheeple to feel better, making them more likely to vote for him and the electon either very close or a Bush win by 5% or so. I hate Bush, but he does know how to manipulate events.

[teach1st]

3. Rove can be good...

Although Rove may have slipped lately, we shouldn't get complacent. Also, incumbancy affords many strategical benefits.

[mikehiggins]

4. he says close because he doesn't have the heart to say

we are going to lose big time unless some sort of amazing miracle takes place.

Maybe the Rapture will take the entire Bush administration into heaven and leave just us sinful Democrats behind. It would take something along those lines.

Kerry or Edwards? Might as well vote for Hamm.

When Clark withdrew, he took any chance of winning with him.

[mouse7]

6. POOP. n/t

[boobooday]

5. It won't be close

It will be a blowout.

God told me.

http://www.wgoeshome.com

[pinkpops]

7. he's a good guy, good reporter, could be right,

but he's no fortune teller. I think we have to assume it will be close, take nothing for granted, keep the pressure on, stick together.

[democratreformed]

9. The GE is something we sure don't need to get overconfident about

Just today, I was discussing the missing WMDs with my sister. We were both amazed that they have never been "planted". I believe that's b/c this administration did not HAVE to plant them. Most people don't care. They have been able to do most of the things we harp about on here without the majority of the general population knowing or caring. That, to me, is VERY scary. These people in charge of our country are the sneakiest, most arrogant, and slimiest people I have ever seen. And they have fooled a great many people. And they have POWER and MONEY. We cannot afford to be overconfident. We need to be prepared for a hard fight. We absolutely MUST get them OUT.

[yo-yo-ma]

10. it's just horse race journalism

drawing attention away from the issues.
I wish there was as much coverage of platforms as there is of predictions.

[newyawker99]

24. Hi yo-yo-ma!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[SinkingInTheRain]

11. He was booed at Nascar? Is there a link to this booing?

I don't do NASCAR and missed it. Is there a tape or other links to his ass getting booed?

[AngryYoungMan]

19. There were DUers in the crowd. He was booed and people yelled "Liar"

Maybe somebody else knows how to get to these threads...

[democratreformed]

21. Damn, wish they had shown that on TV

I was here at the puter but my hubby was watching. I was gagging the whole time he was talking.

[fishnfla]

12. It'll be close because the shrub hasnt spent any money yet

and the Dem nom will be broke. Thats why he said that

[bobbieinok]

13. right-wing media, BBV, and $200million

lies - lies - lies - lies -lies - lies.......

[eridani]

14. Black Box Voting, obviously

[GreenArrow]

15. Diebold

.

[Leilani]

16. I believe it will be very close

Those expecting a blowout may be disappointed.

The country is very divided, as it was in 2000, & the Dems need to get every vote to the polls. And I think this applies to Kerry or Edwards, or if it had been Dean or Clark.

The Repubs will drag out every devisive issue, use smears, & spend countless amounts against the Dem candidate.

I think too many people at DU only talk to Liberals, or live in states that are safe Dem states.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

17. Re: the 200mil

I fear the attack ads, but money isn't all. Not to inflame any Deaniacs (I do think the whole hope in the Dem race is attributable to Dean), but 40 mil didn't even buy one Dem primary win... sad for Dean but gives hope for Dems as a whole going into the campaign...

[Clark4Prez]

18. Money can't buy everything

I think that even a high end ad campaign won't overcome the realities of Iraq and the economy.

[kodi]

22. but all it has to do is buy 49% of the votes so they steal it all

like last time.

[59millionmorons]

20. The race will be close because the media will want it to be

It's in there best interest for there to be a close race, ratings wise. This is why they are trying to ack like Edwards really has a chance. If they think Bush or Kerry is getting to far ahead they will go after the leader. It's all about there ratings.

[GodHelpUsAll2]

23. You have got to be kidding

The media will do it's very best to see to it that Bush stays in power. He's a cash cow for them. If people haven't realized that yet, we are in big big trouble. Make no mistake, the repubs are masters at getting what they want. And they have the money and the people to help them get it. I am of the belief that the powers that be in the Democratic party have done us no favors by insisting this primary be done so quickly. Regarless of who won what and who is the front runner, as long as there were 8 or 9 people in this game there was no clear target for the repubs to go after. Now we have narrowed the field, with all eyes on Edwards and especially Kerry. We just handed Bush and his attack machine a clear and glaring target and he has 8 solid months and 200 million ( that's a little over 700,000.00 a day from today to the GE)in unlimited funds. Edwards, because of matching funds will be helpless to defend himself by April at best if he makes it through super Tuesday. Kerry is in debt over the mortgaged house and because of new FEC laws he has to pay that debt off by convention to be able to use campaign funds plus he has to be able to raise enough money to pay that and finance his campaign to fend off the bloody brutal assault that has alredy started, the ads have begun. Think of it in terms of an NFL game. It's a lot easier for a receiver to make it to the goal line if he has a good defensive line running interference. Take that line away and you're on your own and your only hope is to run for your life and hope you don't get killed. The saddest part is, we did it to ourselves. As for people waking up to Bush being a complete moron. He's been that since he started campaigning for 2000. It hasn't hurt him yet. He may have stole the election, but there were a whole slew of people out there that did vote for him, the margin between he and Gore was not that great. And he's had 3 years of Rush, the media and the religious zealots working on his side to convert more to come out and keep his stupid ass in power. We should all do a whole lot of praying in the coming months because I fear we will need that and more.